Macro theme:
- Headlines this Jan are dominated by geopolitical friction, specifically the US-Eurozone trade tensions over Greenland, painting a picture of imminent fragility. However, a rigorous look at the latest data reveals a stark disconnect between news-flow and economic reality.
- While the market frets over potential tariff wars, the fundamental macro backdrop has quietly settled into a "Goldilocks" zone. Despite the alarming rhetoric, the data points to a resumption of steady global GDP growth and continued disinflation in 2026.
- We are witnessing a classic divergence between perceived risk and actual economic health.
. Growth is Robust: Far from a recession, Oxford Economics has actually raised its 2026 US GDP forecast to 2.8%, the top end of the forecaster range, driven by AI-related investment and productivity gains.
. The "Worst-Case" isn't Fatal: Even if the US-Eurozone trade dispute escalates to a full "trade war" (currently a 20% probability), modelling suggests a hit to US GDP of only 0.5%. The economy would remain resilient, with growth at ~2.3%.
- Credit Conditions are Green: The proprietary credit conditions index has turned positive for the first time since late 2021, signaling ample liquidity.
- For asset allocators, retrenching into cash due to headline fear is likely over cautious. The strategy now requires precision, not retreat.
Technical approach:
- USTEC is consolidating within a broader range. The index bounced off EMA78 on retest and closed above EMA21. The index is still in a sideways phase captured by a Symmetrical Triangle pattern, awaiting an apparent breakout to determine the next trend.
- If USTEC breaches above the Symmetrical Triangle and the resistance at 26100, the index may surge to test the 100% Fibonacci Extension at 26620.
- On the contrary, remaining below 26100 may prompt a retreat toward the support at 25150.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
- Headlines this Jan are dominated by geopolitical friction, specifically the US-Eurozone trade tensions over Greenland, painting a picture of imminent fragility. However, a rigorous look at the latest data reveals a stark disconnect between news-flow and economic reality.
- While the market frets over potential tariff wars, the fundamental macro backdrop has quietly settled into a "Goldilocks" zone. Despite the alarming rhetoric, the data points to a resumption of steady global GDP growth and continued disinflation in 2026.
- We are witnessing a classic divergence between perceived risk and actual economic health.
. Growth is Robust: Far from a recession, Oxford Economics has actually raised its 2026 US GDP forecast to 2.8%, the top end of the forecaster range, driven by AI-related investment and productivity gains.
. The "Worst-Case" isn't Fatal: Even if the US-Eurozone trade dispute escalates to a full "trade war" (currently a 20% probability), modelling suggests a hit to US GDP of only 0.5%. The economy would remain resilient, with growth at ~2.3%.
- Credit Conditions are Green: The proprietary credit conditions index has turned positive for the first time since late 2021, signaling ample liquidity.
- For asset allocators, retrenching into cash due to headline fear is likely over cautious. The strategy now requires precision, not retreat.
Technical approach:
- USTEC is consolidating within a broader range. The index bounced off EMA78 on retest and closed above EMA21. The index is still in a sideways phase captured by a Symmetrical Triangle pattern, awaiting an apparent breakout to determine the next trend.
- If USTEC breaches above the Symmetrical Triangle and the resistance at 26100, the index may surge to test the 100% Fibonacci Extension at 26620.
- On the contrary, remaining below 26100 may prompt a retreat toward the support at 25150.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Zlecenie aktywne
It broke the Triangle and went up. We gonna have new record highs.
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