Gold is still trading inside a broader bearish structure, and the weekly outlook continues to favour downside continuation. From Kelly’s view, the latest recovery looks more like a corrective rebound into resistance, while the main Elliott structure still suggests that wave 5 may extend lower.
The key idea is simple: as long as gold remains below the descending trendline and the sell wave B zone, the bearish weekly scenario stays active.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold has been respecting a clear descending trendline, with repeated lower highs forming across the structure. Each recovery attempt has been capped under resistance, showing that buyers still lack strong control.
Price recently tested the lower support around 3,955–3,970 and bounced slightly, but the rebound is still weak. The nearest sell area is around 4,017–4,025, where the chart marks the sell wave B zone.
If gold retests this zone and fails to break above it, sellers may continue pushing price lower towards the final Elliott wave target near 3,845–3,855.
➤ Key levels
◌ 3,955–3,970: recent low and done test area
◌ 4,017–4,025: sell wave B zone and short-term resistance
◌ 4,050–4,075: higher resistance if the rebound expands
◌ 3,845–3,855: final wave 5 target area
◌ Above 4,075: area where the bearish weekly setup starts to weaken
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be developing the final bearish phase of a larger 5-wave decline.
Wave 1 started from the upper structure.
Wave 2 formed a corrective rebound but failed below trendline resistance.
Wave 3 pushed price lower with stronger bearish pressure.
Wave 4 may now be forming as a small recovery into the sell wave B zone.
If this resistance holds, wave 5 may continue lower towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension area near 3,845–3,855.
This is why Kelly would not treat the current bounce as a full reversal yet. The market is still below the descending trendline, and the structure continues to favour sell reactions from resistance.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for gold to retest the 4,017–4,025 sell zone and show bearish confirmation.
Sell zone: 4,017–4,025 if rejection appears
Stop loss: above the confirmed rejection high or above 4,075
Take profit 1: 3,955–3,970
Take profit 2: 3,900
Take profit 3: 3,845–3,855
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,075 and holds with strong acceptance, the bearish wave 5 setup weakens. In that case, the market may shift into a larger corrective recovery before the next weekly direction becomes clear.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, the weekly structure still favours selling the rebound. Gold has reacted from support, but the bounce remains corrective while price stays below the sell wave B zone and the descending trendline.
The cleaner plan is not to chase the low. Wait for price to retest resistance, then watch whether sellers defend the structure.
Gold may still have one more bearish leg ahead.
If the sell zone holds, the final wave 5 target remains open for next week.
Share your view below.
📌 New analysis published daily
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+SOSI26CZOJ1mZDhl
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+SOSI26CZOJ1mZDhl
Powiązane publikacje
Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.
📌 New analysis published daily
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+SOSI26CZOJ1mZDhl
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+SOSI26CZOJ1mZDhl
Powiązane publikacje
Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.