Bearish Continuation toward 4374?
Momentum Analysis
– D1 Timeframe: Momentum is currently overlapping and consolidating. We are on the 10th day of the current bearish leg. Following the volatility on day 8, we anticipate a decisive trend confirmation by day 13 (early next week).
– H4 Timeframe: Momentum is drifting higher, but price action lacks bullish conviction. We expect the 5th candle to push H4 into the Overbought zone, signaling a potential bearish reversal.
– H1 Timeframe: Approaching Oversold territory, suggesting a minor corrective bounce is imminent to neutralize the immediate selling pressure.
Elliott Wave Structure
– D1 Outlook: The primary count oscillates between a Contracting Triangle and a Complex Corrective (WXY) structure. In the WXY scenario, a breakdown below the Wave C low is expected. A sharp impulsive move above the upper boundary would serve as an Invalidation Point.
– H4 Outlook: The WXY structure is in progress. While the $Y = W$ target at 4513 was hit, the lack of a strong rebound suggests further weakness. If the current bounce fails and prints a lower low, the $Y = 1.618W$ extension at 4374 becomes the primary objective.
– H1 Outlook: Overlapping extensions are creating complexity. Following an ABC corrective bounce, we look for a bearish continuation. Patience is required until H4 momentum reaches Overbought levels to align with the higher timeframe bias.
Execution Plan
– Trade Setup: Looking for a Sell setup based on Confluence between H4/H1 Overbought cycles and M15 structure break.
– Liquidity Zone: 4573
– Sell Zone: 4570 – 4574
– Stop Loss: 4592
– Take Profit (TP): 4512 | 4473 | 4412
– Observation: The 4376 area is identified as a high-probability Buy Zone if the Y wave completes as an extension.
Disclaimer: Trading Forex and Gold involves significant risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only.
Momentum Analysis
– D1 Timeframe: Momentum is currently overlapping and consolidating. We are on the 10th day of the current bearish leg. Following the volatility on day 8, we anticipate a decisive trend confirmation by day 13 (early next week).
– H4 Timeframe: Momentum is drifting higher, but price action lacks bullish conviction. We expect the 5th candle to push H4 into the Overbought zone, signaling a potential bearish reversal.
– H1 Timeframe: Approaching Oversold territory, suggesting a minor corrective bounce is imminent to neutralize the immediate selling pressure.
Elliott Wave Structure
– D1 Outlook: The primary count oscillates between a Contracting Triangle and a Complex Corrective (WXY) structure. In the WXY scenario, a breakdown below the Wave C low is expected. A sharp impulsive move above the upper boundary would serve as an Invalidation Point.
– H4 Outlook: The WXY structure is in progress. While the $Y = W$ target at 4513 was hit, the lack of a strong rebound suggests further weakness. If the current bounce fails and prints a lower low, the $Y = 1.618W$ extension at 4374 becomes the primary objective.
– H1 Outlook: Overlapping extensions are creating complexity. Following an ABC corrective bounce, we look for a bearish continuation. Patience is required until H4 momentum reaches Overbought levels to align with the higher timeframe bias.
Execution Plan
– Trade Setup: Looking for a Sell setup based on Confluence between H4/H1 Overbought cycles and M15 structure break.
– Liquidity Zone: 4573
– Sell Zone: 4570 – 4574
– Stop Loss: 4592
– Take Profit (TP): 4512 | 4473 | 4412
– Observation: The 4376 area is identified as a high-probability Buy Zone if the Y wave completes as an extension.
Disclaimer: Trading Forex and Gold involves significant risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only.
Zlecenie aktywne
📉 XAUUSD: MARKET STATE UPDATE
CONTEXT
– Current bullish structure has reached a key liquidity zone at 4645. This high-volume area is likely to trigger significant profit-taking pressure.
– The higher timeframe trend remains under pressure from technical resistance levels.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
– H4 Momentum: Reaching extreme Overbought conditions; reversal signals are emerging.
– H1 Momentum: Synchronized in overbought territory, signaling an immediate technical correction.
SETUP
– Scenario 1: A technical pullback occurs on the H1 timeframe starting from the current price zone.
– Scenario 2: If the momentum is strong enough, the decline will extend and align with an H4 structural correction.
⚠️ Note: Prioritize monitoring price action at the 4645 liquidity zone. Avoid FOMO buying while both timeframes are in overbought conditions.
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Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.