XAUUSD – Brian | After the rate cut, Volume Profile still favours further downside
1. Market snapshot
After the rate cut, gold saw a bounce but failed to sustain the upside and is still hovering below last week’s highs.
In the Asian session, price only ticked up slightly before being sold off again – a sign that buying pressure is not particularly strong at these levels.
Risk-on sentiment has returned and the USD is seeing a modest recovery, which is weighing on XAU/USD.
That said, expectations for the Fed to maintain a dovish tone could still cap USD strength in the medium term.
Overall, in the short term Brian still leans towards a downside move, preferring to sell into liquidity above rather than chase buys.
2. Volume Profile view – Key levels to watch
On the H1 chart, Volume Profile highlights three main areas:
VAL – Buy scalping zone: around 4,207
→ Current lower value area, where a short technical bounce may appear.
Liquidity / Sell zone: around 4,222
→ Liquidity pocket above, lining up with VAH and a volume cluster – an attractive area to look for sells if price is pushed back up for a retest.
Deeper buy zone: around 4,166
→ Broader demand area below; if price flushes lower after sweeping liquidity, this is where dip-buying interest may show up.
3. Trade scenarios (for reference)
Scenario 1 – Sell at the 4,222 liquidity zone (primary idea)
Idea: Wait for price to retrace into the 4,222 liquidity zone and then look for rejection signals on H1/M15.
Sell zone: 4,220–4,223
Suggested SL: Above 4,230
Targets:
TP1: 4,207 (VAL)
TP2: 4,190–4,185
TP3: 4,170–4,166 (deeper buy zone)
This setup follows the current bearish bias, using the logic of “sell the rally into high-volume + liquidity zones”.
Scenario 2 – Light buys at VAL 4,207 & buy zone 4,166
Scalp buy at VAL:
Entry zone: 4,204–4,207
Target: bounce back towards 4,217–4,220 and then exit, not a long hold.
Buy at the deeper 4,166 zone (cleaner level):
Entry zone: 4,164–4,168
SL: Below 4,158
TP: 4,190 → 4,210 if a clear bullish candle reaction forms and the Fed does not turn overly hawkish.
Both buy scenarios are purely short-term corrective plays, so position size should be kept modest as the main bias remains to the downside.
Be patient and only start thinking about sells once price tags the 4,222 area – avoid forcing entries when price is stuck in the middle of the range.
In summary: Selling around 4,222 is the primary plan, while buys at 4,207 and 4,166 are secondary strategies that only come into play if there is a clear reaction from Volume Profile and price action.
1. Market snapshot
After the rate cut, gold saw a bounce but failed to sustain the upside and is still hovering below last week’s highs.
In the Asian session, price only ticked up slightly before being sold off again – a sign that buying pressure is not particularly strong at these levels.
Risk-on sentiment has returned and the USD is seeing a modest recovery, which is weighing on XAU/USD.
That said, expectations for the Fed to maintain a dovish tone could still cap USD strength in the medium term.
Overall, in the short term Brian still leans towards a downside move, preferring to sell into liquidity above rather than chase buys.
2. Volume Profile view – Key levels to watch
On the H1 chart, Volume Profile highlights three main areas:
VAL – Buy scalping zone: around 4,207
→ Current lower value area, where a short technical bounce may appear.
Liquidity / Sell zone: around 4,222
→ Liquidity pocket above, lining up with VAH and a volume cluster – an attractive area to look for sells if price is pushed back up for a retest.
Deeper buy zone: around 4,166
→ Broader demand area below; if price flushes lower after sweeping liquidity, this is where dip-buying interest may show up.
3. Trade scenarios (for reference)
Scenario 1 – Sell at the 4,222 liquidity zone (primary idea)
Idea: Wait for price to retrace into the 4,222 liquidity zone and then look for rejection signals on H1/M15.
Sell zone: 4,220–4,223
Suggested SL: Above 4,230
Targets:
TP1: 4,207 (VAL)
TP2: 4,190–4,185
TP3: 4,170–4,166 (deeper buy zone)
This setup follows the current bearish bias, using the logic of “sell the rally into high-volume + liquidity zones”.
Scenario 2 – Light buys at VAL 4,207 & buy zone 4,166
Scalp buy at VAL:
Entry zone: 4,204–4,207
Target: bounce back towards 4,217–4,220 and then exit, not a long hold.
Buy at the deeper 4,166 zone (cleaner level):
Entry zone: 4,164–4,168
SL: Below 4,158
TP: 4,190 → 4,210 if a clear bullish candle reaction forms and the Fed does not turn overly hawkish.
Both buy scenarios are purely short-term corrective plays, so position size should be kept modest as the main bias remains to the downside.
Be patient and only start thinking about sells once price tags the 4,222 area – avoid forcing entries when price is stuck in the middle of the range.
In summary: Selling around 4,222 is the primary plan, while buys at 4,207 and 4,166 are secondary strategies that only come into play if there is a clear reaction from Volume Profile and price action.
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✅ Accurate signals & exclusive analysis: 10–15 signals daily with continuous market insights
⏳ Every minute you hesitate is a winning opportunity slipping away!
t.me/+PNA9TDWpr_80ZGQ1
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🔥 BrianLionCapital – Where Top Traders Unite
✅ Accurate signals & exclusive analysis: 10–15 signals daily with continuous market insights
⏳ Every minute you hesitate is a winning opportunity slipping away!
t.me/+PNA9TDWpr_80ZGQ1
✅ Accurate signals & exclusive analysis: 10–15 signals daily with continuous market insights
⏳ Every minute you hesitate is a winning opportunity slipping away!
t.me/+PNA9TDWpr_80ZGQ1
Powiązane publikacje
Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.