Złoto / Dolar USA
Long

Gold Holds Near 2-Week Highs as USD Softens Ahead of Fed Cuts

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Gold continues to trade firmly near recent highs as the USD weakens amid growing expectations of a Fed rate cut in December.
The earlier pullback was mostly driven by stronger risk appetite in equities, not by gold weakness itself — meaning the macro bullish backdrop remains intact.

With markets now pricing:

76% chance of a December rate cut,

and almost 90 bps of cuts by end-2026,

the broader environment continues to favour upside on dips.

📊 Technical Outlook – MMF Style (H1/H2)

Price has respected the ascending trendline drawn from the early-week swing low and is now pushing above the 0.618–0.786 retracement zone.

Key Levels

BUY Zone 1: 4,132 – 4,149 (Fibo 0.382–0.618 + demand)

BUY Zone 2: Trendline retest area

Target Zone: 4,188 – 4,195 (1.272–1.618 Fibo extension)

Structure is currently bullish, with clear higher highs and higher lows.
A retracement into 4,14x before continuation higher is the most probable scenario.

🎯 MMF Trading Plan (Intraday)
Primary Setup – BUY Dip Continuation

BUY: 4,132 – 4,149
SL: 4,121
TP:
→ 4,168
→ 4,185
→ 4,192 – major extension target

Alternative Scenario – Break & Hold Above 4,170

If price consolidates above 4,170, expect a direct push toward 4,19x without a deep pullback.

Bearish Scenario (Low probability for now)

Only valid if price breaks below trendline + closes under 4,128.

Target would be a deeper correction toward 4,10x — but this is not the base case.

🧠 MMF View

Gold’s structure + macro narrative → bullish trend intact.
The market is clearly positioning ahead of possible December policy easing — dips into 4,13x–4,14x remain attractive opportunities.

“In a rate-cut environment, gold tends to trend — the only task is to buy from strength, not chase.”

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