Gold has reached a one-month high as a softer US dollar, lower oil prices and declining Treasury yields strengthened demand for the metal. The latest JOLTS report also showed US job openings falling to 7.359 million, reinforcing signs of slower labor demand.
Attention now shifts to private employment data and the upcoming US payrolls report. Softer labor figures could maintain pressure on yields and support gold, while stronger results may trigger profit-taking after the recent expansion.
Technical Analysis
On the H1 chart, XAUUSD has delivered a strong bullish breakout above the institutional descending trendline and expanded through the 4,168–4,180 premium objective.
Price is trading well above both the EMA 34 at 4,094 and EMA 89 at 4,069, confirming strong bullish alignment. However, the distance from these averages shows that the current move is becoming extended.
RSI is holding near 71, slightly above the overbought threshold. Momentum remains bullish, but the elevated reading increases the probability of consolidation or a corrective retracement after the remaining liquidity is collected.
The MACD panel is not visible, so no live crossover can be confirmed. A bearish crossover or contracting positive histogram would provide additional confirmation that the bullish impulse is losing strength.
Important Key Levels
Premium objective: 4,168–4,180
Weekly liquidity pool: 4,200–4,215
Institutional demand: 4,090–4,105
EMA support: 4,069–4,095
Trading Scenario
My primary scenario is a final bullish expansion toward the 4,200–4,215 weekly liquidity pool while price maintains acceptance above the premium objective.
Because RSI is already overbought and price is significantly extended above the EMA structure, I would avoid chasing the current displacement. A liquidity sweep near the weekly highs, followed by rejection, RSI returning below 70 and bearish MACD confirmation, could initiate a corrective move toward the 4,090–4,105 institutional demand zone.
This pullback would rebalance the recent displacement without immediately invalidating the broader bullish structure.
Buy/Sell Condition
Bullish condition: Sustained H1 acceptance above 4,180 could support continuation toward 4,200–4,215.
Corrective condition: Rejection from the weekly liquidity pool, combined with weakening RSI and bearish MACD momentum, could support a retracement toward institutional demand.
Overall View
The institutional trendline breakout and bullish EMA alignment confirm strong buyer control, but RSI above 70 suggests that the move is approaching an increasingly expensive area.
My focus is on a possible final liquidity run before the market begins a controlled repricing toward support.
Do you expect XAUUSD to sweep the weekly liquidity pool before retracing toward institutional demand?
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Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.