Gold is sitting near recent lows ahead of FOMC, but the current structure suggests this move may not continue straight down without a reaction first.
After the aggressive selloff, price is now stabilizing around the 4865 area, forming a short-term base while leaving a clear H1 imbalance (FVG) above.
👉 This opens the door for a potential recovery move before the next decision.
📉 Technical Structure
Market remains inside a clear downtrend channel
Lower highs are still being respected
No structural break to the upside yet
The recent drop is impulsive, which usually leads to a retracement phase before continuation.
⚖️ Expected Price Behavior (FOMC Plan)
The current setup favors a two-phase move:
Phase 1 — Recovery (FOMC reaction):
Price may push higher to fill the FVG and rebalance the inefficiency
→ Likely driven by volatility during the news release
Phase 2 — Rejection & Continuation:
If price reacts at the trendline resistance + 4900 zone,
→ Sellers could step back in
→ Leading to continuation lower toward 4830 and below
🧠 Market Insight
This is a classic liquidity + imbalance play:
Selloff creates inefficiency
Market retraces to rebalance
Trend resumes from higher levels
FOMC often acts as the catalyst for this type of move.
⚠️ Final Thought
The key is not the initial move —
👉 but the reaction at resistance.
If gold fails to break above the trendline,
the broader bearish structure remains in control.
After the aggressive selloff, price is now stabilizing around the 4865 area, forming a short-term base while leaving a clear H1 imbalance (FVG) above.
👉 This opens the door for a potential recovery move before the next decision.
📉 Technical Structure
Market remains inside a clear downtrend channel
Lower highs are still being respected
No structural break to the upside yet
The recent drop is impulsive, which usually leads to a retracement phase before continuation.
⚖️ Expected Price Behavior (FOMC Plan)
The current setup favors a two-phase move:
Phase 1 — Recovery (FOMC reaction):
Price may push higher to fill the FVG and rebalance the inefficiency
→ Likely driven by volatility during the news release
Phase 2 — Rejection & Continuation:
If price reacts at the trendline resistance + 4900 zone,
→ Sellers could step back in
→ Leading to continuation lower toward 4830 and below
🧠 Market Insight
This is a classic liquidity + imbalance play:
Selloff creates inefficiency
Market retraces to rebalance
Trend resumes from higher levels
FOMC often acts as the catalyst for this type of move.
⚠️ Final Thought
The key is not the initial move —
👉 but the reaction at resistance.
If gold fails to break above the trendline,
the broader bearish structure remains in control.
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Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.