Gold prices (XAU/USD) 
XAUUSD attracted some mild buy orders during Friday's Asian trading session, managing to reverse some of the previous daily losses from a monthly low.
However, any recovery in gold prices is projected to be a fading rally due to the combination of the shock of the surge in crude oil prices, which exploded by more than 10% this week, and a barrage of hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials. This condition firmly locks gold on a path to weekly losses for the second consecutive week.
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✅ Kinetic Civil War: Destruction of Bandar Abbas Train Station & Houthi Red Sea Threat
Military escalation in the Middle East is shifting unsettlingly from conventional targets to the destruction of public infrastructure:
- Bandar Abbas Civilian Targets Hit: Officials in the strategic port city of Bandar Abbas, southern Iran, confirmed that electricity facilities and a civilian train station were destroyed in a new wave of airstrikes. Tehran retaliated instantly by sending a hail of drones and ballistic missiles toward the US-allied Gulf states.
- Total Maritime Seal: The US Navy is aggressively intercepting and firing on commercial vessels attempting to breach the naval blockade of Iranian ports. This situation is exacerbated by a Reuters report that the IRGC has instructed the Houthi militia in Yemen to completely block oil shipping traffic in the Red Sea (Bab el-Mandeb Strait). The surge in crude oil prices of more than 10% this week is clear evidence of the escalating energy-driven inflation.
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✅ Monetary Side: 208K Jobs, 41.4% Fed Prices & Hawkish Fed Line
The fundamentals of the United States economy provide a solid foundation for the US Dollar's (USD) recovery, offsetting the deflationary effects of the previous CPI/PPI data:
- Jobless Claims Improve (208K): The US Department of Labor reported a surprising drop in new jobless claims to 208,000, well below consensus estimates and highlighting the resilience of the domestic labor market.
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Boom (41.4): The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index jumped sharply from 10.3 to 41.4 in July—reaching a record high since November 2021—with the price sub-index blazing.
- Logan & Jefferson Call for Rate Hikes: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan publicly stated that this week's decline in CPI/PPI data was "not enough" and called for further interest rate increases.
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✅ XAU/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday)
Technically, the daily gold bounce is viewed purely as a bull trap within a macro downtrend channel (bearish continuation):
Sell on Rallies Pattern: As long as gold fails to reclaim and close above the $4,050 barrier, any daily upward recovery will inevitably run into a wall of institutional sell limits.
New York Session Triggers Tonight: The weekend's direction will be directly driven by a package of US economic data from 7:30 PM - 9:00 PM WIB: Building Permits, Industrial Production, and the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations.
Surging Michigan inflation expectations data will be the trigger for gold's rally towards a retest of the current year's trough of $3,942 - $3,943.
XAUUSD attracted some mild buy orders during Friday's Asian trading session, managing to reverse some of the previous daily losses from a monthly low. However, any recovery in gold prices is projected to be a fading rally due to the combination of the shock of the surge in crude oil prices, which exploded by more than 10% this week, and a barrage of hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials. This condition firmly locks gold on a path to weekly losses for the second consecutive week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Kinetic Civil War: Destruction of Bandar Abbas Train Station & Houthi Red Sea Threat
Military escalation in the Middle East is shifting unsettlingly from conventional targets to the destruction of public infrastructure:
- Bandar Abbas Civilian Targets Hit: Officials in the strategic port city of Bandar Abbas, southern Iran, confirmed that electricity facilities and a civilian train station were destroyed in a new wave of airstrikes. Tehran retaliated instantly by sending a hail of drones and ballistic missiles toward the US-allied Gulf states.
- Total Maritime Seal: The US Navy is aggressively intercepting and firing on commercial vessels attempting to breach the naval blockade of Iranian ports. This situation is exacerbated by a Reuters report that the IRGC has instructed the Houthi militia in Yemen to completely block oil shipping traffic in the Red Sea (Bab el-Mandeb Strait). The surge in crude oil prices of more than 10% this week is clear evidence of the escalating energy-driven inflation.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Monetary Side: 208K Jobs, 41.4% Fed Prices & Hawkish Fed Line
The fundamentals of the United States economy provide a solid foundation for the US Dollar's (USD) recovery, offsetting the deflationary effects of the previous CPI/PPI data:
- Jobless Claims Improve (208K): The US Department of Labor reported a surprising drop in new jobless claims to 208,000, well below consensus estimates and highlighting the resilience of the domestic labor market.
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Boom (41.4): The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index jumped sharply from 10.3 to 41.4 in July—reaching a record high since November 2021—with the price sub-index blazing.
- Logan & Jefferson Call for Rate Hikes: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan publicly stated that this week's decline in CPI/PPI data was "not enough" and called for further interest rate increases.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ XAU/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday)
Technically, the daily gold bounce is viewed purely as a bull trap within a macro downtrend channel (bearish continuation):
Sell on Rallies Pattern: As long as gold fails to reclaim and close above the $4,050 barrier, any daily upward recovery will inevitably run into a wall of institutional sell limits.
New York Session Triggers Tonight: The weekend's direction will be directly driven by a package of US economic data from 7:30 PM - 9:00 PM WIB: Building Permits, Industrial Production, and the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations.
Surging Michigan inflation expectations data will be the trigger for gold's rally towards a retest of the current year's trough of $3,942 - $3,943.
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Powiązane publikacje
Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.