Gold prices (XAU/USD) showed high volatility at the opening of this week.
After opening with a bearish gap and hitting a one-week low of around $4,737, gold managed to rebound to the $4,815 area.
This movement reflects the tug-of-war between the worsening geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz and expectations of softening US monetary policy.
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✅ Geopolitics: Ceasefire Violations & Hormuz Closure
The situation in the Middle East is heating up again just before the April 22 ceasefire deadline:
- ⚡Ship Seizure & Blockade: The US Navy officially seized an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman. President Donald Trump asserted that the blockade will continue until a permanent peace agreement is reached.
- ⚡Iran's Response: Tehran views this seizure as a serious violation. In retaliation, Iran has completely closed the Strait of Hormuz, after briefly reopening it following the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire last Friday.
- ⚡Diplomatic Deadlock: Although Vice President JD Vance is ready to lead the second round of negotiations, Iran has stated that it will not participate as long as the US blockade remains in place. This has triggered a wave of risk aversion, benefiting the US dollar.
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✅ Monetary: Interest Rate Cut Speculation Rises
Despite the renewed rally in oil prices and fueling inflation concerns, sentiment toward the Fed has begun to shift:
- ⚡FedWatch Tool (CME): The probability of an interest rate cut by the end of 2026 has now risen to 40%.
- ⚡Bond Yields: Rising US bond yields (due to energy inflation expectations) briefly held gold at $4,815. However, the US dollar's weakening from its one-week high allowed the yellow metal to fill the weekly price gap.
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✅ Key Intraday XAU/USD Levels
- ⚡Immediate Resistance ($4,815 - $4,830): This area is limiting today's upside. A break above this level is needed to retest the 200-day SMA (SMA) for the 4H10 period.
- ⚡Critical Support ($4,737): The lowest point of the Asian session. If this level is broken, gold risks falling further towards the $4,650 area.
- ⚡Long-Term Pivot Point ($4,100): The March swing low that remains the anchor of the broader uptrend structure.
After opening with a bearish gap and hitting a one-week low of around $4,737, gold managed to rebound to the $4,815 area.
This movement reflects the tug-of-war between the worsening geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz and expectations of softening US monetary policy.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Geopolitics: Ceasefire Violations & Hormuz Closure
The situation in the Middle East is heating up again just before the April 22 ceasefire deadline:
- ⚡Ship Seizure & Blockade: The US Navy officially seized an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman. President Donald Trump asserted that the blockade will continue until a permanent peace agreement is reached.
- ⚡Iran's Response: Tehran views this seizure as a serious violation. In retaliation, Iran has completely closed the Strait of Hormuz, after briefly reopening it following the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire last Friday.
- ⚡Diplomatic Deadlock: Although Vice President JD Vance is ready to lead the second round of negotiations, Iran has stated that it will not participate as long as the US blockade remains in place. This has triggered a wave of risk aversion, benefiting the US dollar.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Monetary: Interest Rate Cut Speculation Rises
Despite the renewed rally in oil prices and fueling inflation concerns, sentiment toward the Fed has begun to shift:
- ⚡FedWatch Tool (CME): The probability of an interest rate cut by the end of 2026 has now risen to 40%.
- ⚡Bond Yields: Rising US bond yields (due to energy inflation expectations) briefly held gold at $4,815. However, the US dollar's weakening from its one-week high allowed the yellow metal to fill the weekly price gap.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Key Intraday XAU/USD Levels
- ⚡Immediate Resistance ($4,815 - $4,830): This area is limiting today's upside. A break above this level is needed to retest the 200-day SMA (SMA) for the 4H10 period.
- ⚡Critical Support ($4,737): The lowest point of the Asian session. If this level is broken, gold risks falling further towards the $4,650 area.
- ⚡Long-Term Pivot Point ($4,100): The March swing low that remains the anchor of the broader uptrend structure.
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Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.