Gold continues trading inside a broader bearish structure after last week’s aggressive breakdown erased most of the previous recovery momentum. The market is now entering a more compressed intraday phase, where short-term rebounds continue appearing from lower support zones, but bullish continuation remains weak and heavily capped below descending supply structures.
From the macro perspective, recession concerns are still present in the background, but markets are no longer aggressively pricing immediate economic panic. Recent stability in USD and yields continues limiting safe-haven demand for gold. Institutional flows currently appear more focused on liquidity rotation and defensive positioning rather than chasing precious metals higher.
The latest H2 structure shows gold attempting to stabilize around the 446x-447x support region after the previous heavy selloff. However, every rebound continues facing rejection pressure near descending trendline resistance and fibo liquidity zones. This keeps the broader market structure tilted toward continuation selling rather than sustainable recovery.
The key zone now sits around 449x-451x where trendline resistance, fibo retracement, and short-term demand/supply overlap together. If gold fails to reclaim this area with strong momentum, sellers could continue driving price toward lower liquidity pools around 443x and potentially deeper into the 442x support zone.
MAIN SCENARIO
If gold continues trading below the descending H2 structure, the current rebound could become another liquidity retest before bearish continuation resumes. Under the current macro environment, sellers still maintain structural control while the market lacks strong bullish catalysts.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If USD weakens unexpectedly or risk sentiment deteriorates again, gold could temporarily reclaim the upper intraday supply zone and extend a short-term recovery toward higher liquidity around 452x-454x. However, this remains a secondary scenario unless price breaks and holds above the descending structure.
Short-term bias:
Bearish recovery / sell rallies
Long-term bias:
Still bearish according to the broader macro and structural trend.
LucasGrayTrading
From the macro perspective, recession concerns are still present in the background, but markets are no longer aggressively pricing immediate economic panic. Recent stability in USD and yields continues limiting safe-haven demand for gold. Institutional flows currently appear more focused on liquidity rotation and defensive positioning rather than chasing precious metals higher.
The latest H2 structure shows gold attempting to stabilize around the 446x-447x support region after the previous heavy selloff. However, every rebound continues facing rejection pressure near descending trendline resistance and fibo liquidity zones. This keeps the broader market structure tilted toward continuation selling rather than sustainable recovery.
The key zone now sits around 449x-451x where trendline resistance, fibo retracement, and short-term demand/supply overlap together. If gold fails to reclaim this area with strong momentum, sellers could continue driving price toward lower liquidity pools around 443x and potentially deeper into the 442x support zone.
MAIN SCENARIO
If gold continues trading below the descending H2 structure, the current rebound could become another liquidity retest before bearish continuation resumes. Under the current macro environment, sellers still maintain structural control while the market lacks strong bullish catalysts.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If USD weakens unexpectedly or risk sentiment deteriorates again, gold could temporarily reclaim the upper intraday supply zone and extend a short-term recovery toward higher liquidity around 452x-454x. However, this remains a secondary scenario unless price breaks and holds above the descending structure.
Short-term bias:
Bearish recovery / sell rallies
Long-term bias:
Still bearish according to the broader macro and structural trend.
LucasGrayTrading
Zlecenie aktywne
GOLD H2 20/05 UPDATEThe sell scenario remains active, showing the correct bias as gold reacted strongly at the confluence of demand, fair value, and descending trendline around 449x-450x. This continues to be a crucial liquidity distribution zone where sellers maintain control of the short-term structure.
After a technical rebound from the support below, gold failed to reclaim the trendline breakdown and quickly faced renewed selling pressure. This indicates that current capital flows still favor selling the rally rather than building a genuine bullish recovery.
On a macro level, the USD remains stable while the market lacks a sufficiently strong catalyst to reactivate defensive capital flows into gold. Current rebounds continue to be more of a technical retracement than a trend reversal.
As long as gold remains below the current demand and trendline, it is highly likely the market will continue to seek lower support zones around 443x-442x in the coming sessions.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
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High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
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👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
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Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.