Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to find strong support and are trading near multi-week highs. Optimism coming directly from the White House regarding an end to the conflict has triggered a sell-off in the US Dollar (USD), while the market has begun to abandon the risk premium (safe-haven) in favor of assets that benefit from potential monetary easing.
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✅ Diplomacy: Trump's End-of-War Signal
Recent statements from President Donald Trump have drastically changed market dynamics:
- ⚡Trump's Confidence: President Trump explicitly stated his belief that the war with Iran will soon end. The White House confirmed this optimism by citing technical progress within the framework of the agreement.
- ⚡Second Round: Reports of plans for a second round of peace talks in the coming days have lowered the global risk premium. This has caused the US Dollar Index (DXY) to fall to its lowest level since late February.
- ⚡Oil Conditions: Crude oil prices are stuck near a three-week low as the market expects the energy blockade to be lifted soon with the success of diplomacy.
✅ Macroeconomics: DXY at Lows & Fed Pivot
Bearish sentiment towards the US Dollar is reinforced by domestic economic data:
- ⚡PPI Inflation Slows: The Producer Price Index (PPI) data released earlier this week effectively eased fears of "chain" inflation from the energy sector.
- ⚡FedWatch Tool (CME): The market is now increasingly convinced that the end of 2026 will be the key window for the Fed to begin monetary easing (rate cuts). This prospect of lower interest rates is the main fuel for the rise in yieldless gold.
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✅ Key Intraday XAU/USD Levels
- ⚡Critical Resistance ($4,883 - $4,912): The intersection of the 200-day SMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A close above this zone will confirm a transition to a long-term bullish trend.
- ⚡Immediate Support ($4,810): The level that must be held to maintain the current upward momentum.
- ⚡Floor ($4,756): 50% Fibonacci. A break below this level would invalidate this week's recovery scenario.
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✅ Diplomacy: Trump's End-of-War Signal
Recent statements from President Donald Trump have drastically changed market dynamics:
- ⚡Trump's Confidence: President Trump explicitly stated his belief that the war with Iran will soon end. The White House confirmed this optimism by citing technical progress within the framework of the agreement.
- ⚡Second Round: Reports of plans for a second round of peace talks in the coming days have lowered the global risk premium. This has caused the US Dollar Index (DXY) to fall to its lowest level since late February.
- ⚡Oil Conditions: Crude oil prices are stuck near a three-week low as the market expects the energy blockade to be lifted soon with the success of diplomacy.
✅ Macroeconomics: DXY at Lows & Fed Pivot
Bearish sentiment towards the US Dollar is reinforced by domestic economic data:
- ⚡PPI Inflation Slows: The Producer Price Index (PPI) data released earlier this week effectively eased fears of "chain" inflation from the energy sector.
- ⚡FedWatch Tool (CME): The market is now increasingly convinced that the end of 2026 will be the key window for the Fed to begin monetary easing (rate cuts). This prospect of lower interest rates is the main fuel for the rise in yieldless gold.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Key Intraday XAU/USD Levels
- ⚡Critical Resistance ($4,883 - $4,912): The intersection of the 200-day SMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A close above this zone will confirm a transition to a long-term bullish trend.
- ⚡Immediate Support ($4,810): The level that must be held to maintain the current upward momentum.
- ⚡Floor ($4,756): 50% Fibonacci. A break below this level would invalidate this week's recovery scenario.
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