🔎 XAUUSD Deep Technical & Fundamental Analysis – 02/10/2025 (US Session)
📊 Daily Chart (D1)
• Gold rejected 3,896–3,900 key resistance with a large upper wick, confirming strong supply.
• Current candle turning bearish, now pressing into 3,830 zone.
• Price remains above the 21 EMA and daily parabolic SAR, so medium-term trend still bullish but a retracement toward 3,820–3,800 support is underway.
• A daily close under 3,820 could shift momentum bearish into October.
⸻
⏰ 1H Chart
• Strong rejection after a liquidity sweep at 3,896.
• Break of structure (BOS) confirmed at 3,862 → sellers in control.
• Price testing 3,832 intraday support (last H1 low).
• MACD histogram deepening red, moving averages crossed bearish, RSI trending down.
• Unless bulls reclaim 3,860–3,862, intraday bias remains bearish.
⸻
⏱ 15M Chart
• Multiple CHoCH (change of character) moves after the sweep at 3,896.
• Strong momentum candles driving down into 3,832–3,827 liquidity pool.
• If broken, next downside targets = 3,820 and 3,805.
• Countertrend bounce possible only if 3,832 holds with divergence.
⸻
⏱ 5M Chart (Scalping Entries)
• Clear bearish momentum: continuous BOS with lower highs/lows.
• MACD & histogram deep in red, confirming strong sellers.
• Scalping levels:
• Sell continuation: Break & retest below 3,832 → TP 3,827 – 3,820. SL above 3,838 (~60 pips).
• Buy scalp (risky countertrend): If 3,832–3,827 demand holds with bullish candle pattern → TP 3,840–3,850. SL under 3,826 (~60 pips).
⸻
📌 Fibonacci Golden Zone
• From the last swing low → high, the golden retracement sits 3,820–3,832.
• This is where price is consolidating now.
• Break below 3,820 confirms bearish continuation.
• Hold above 3,832 could allow a bounce toward 3,850–3,860.
⸻
🌍 Fundamental Watch
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI (today) → already pressured gold after USD strength.
• Fed speakers later could increase volatility. Hawkish = bearish gold, dovish = bullish bounce.
• Dollar Index (DXY) firming, yields ticking higher → adds bearish bias to gold.
⸻
✅ High-Probability Trade Plans
🔻 SELL Setup (higher probability intraday)
• Entry: Break & retest 3,832.
• SL: 3,838 (≈ 60 pips).
• TP1: 3,827 / TP2: 3,820 / TP3: 3,805.
🔼 BUY Setup (countertrend scalp, lower probability)
• Entry: Bounce from 3,832–3,827 golden zone with bullish confirmation.
• SL: 3,826 (≈ 60 pips).
• TP1: 3,840 / TP2: 3,850 / TP3: 3,860.
⸻
📌 Summary:
Gold is under strong selling pressure after rejecting 3,896–3,900. The 3,832–3,820 golden zone is the key pivot.
• Break below 3,820 = bearish continuation to 3,805.
• Hold above 3,832 = possible bounce toward 3,850–3,860.
⚠️ Volatility will remain high with USD data & Fed comments today.
📊 Daily Chart (D1)
• Gold rejected 3,896–3,900 key resistance with a large upper wick, confirming strong supply.
• Current candle turning bearish, now pressing into 3,830 zone.
• Price remains above the 21 EMA and daily parabolic SAR, so medium-term trend still bullish but a retracement toward 3,820–3,800 support is underway.
• A daily close under 3,820 could shift momentum bearish into October.
⸻
⏰ 1H Chart
• Strong rejection after a liquidity sweep at 3,896.
• Break of structure (BOS) confirmed at 3,862 → sellers in control.
• Price testing 3,832 intraday support (last H1 low).
• MACD histogram deepening red, moving averages crossed bearish, RSI trending down.
• Unless bulls reclaim 3,860–3,862, intraday bias remains bearish.
⸻
⏱ 15M Chart
• Multiple CHoCH (change of character) moves after the sweep at 3,896.
• Strong momentum candles driving down into 3,832–3,827 liquidity pool.
• If broken, next downside targets = 3,820 and 3,805.
• Countertrend bounce possible only if 3,832 holds with divergence.
⸻
⏱ 5M Chart (Scalping Entries)
• Clear bearish momentum: continuous BOS with lower highs/lows.
• MACD & histogram deep in red, confirming strong sellers.
• Scalping levels:
• Sell continuation: Break & retest below 3,832 → TP 3,827 – 3,820. SL above 3,838 (~60 pips).
• Buy scalp (risky countertrend): If 3,832–3,827 demand holds with bullish candle pattern → TP 3,840–3,850. SL under 3,826 (~60 pips).
⸻
📌 Fibonacci Golden Zone
• From the last swing low → high, the golden retracement sits 3,820–3,832.
• This is where price is consolidating now.
• Break below 3,820 confirms bearish continuation.
• Hold above 3,832 could allow a bounce toward 3,850–3,860.
⸻
🌍 Fundamental Watch
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI (today) → already pressured gold after USD strength.
• Fed speakers later could increase volatility. Hawkish = bearish gold, dovish = bullish bounce.
• Dollar Index (DXY) firming, yields ticking higher → adds bearish bias to gold.
⸻
✅ High-Probability Trade Plans
🔻 SELL Setup (higher probability intraday)
• Entry: Break & retest 3,832.
• SL: 3,838 (≈ 60 pips).
• TP1: 3,827 / TP2: 3,820 / TP3: 3,805.
🔼 BUY Setup (countertrend scalp, lower probability)
• Entry: Bounce from 3,832–3,827 golden zone with bullish confirmation.
• SL: 3,826 (≈ 60 pips).
• TP1: 3,840 / TP2: 3,850 / TP3: 3,860.
⸻
📌 Summary:
Gold is under strong selling pressure after rejecting 3,896–3,900. The 3,832–3,820 golden zone is the key pivot.
• Break below 3,820 = bearish continuation to 3,805.
• Hold above 3,832 = possible bounce toward 3,850–3,860.
⚠️ Volatility will remain high with USD data & Fed comments today.
— ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 3.0 Team 🚀
Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.
— ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 3.0 Team 🚀
Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.