Macro has actually become more difficult for grains.
Negative factors :
DXY above 100
Real Yield above 2.25%
Bloomberg Commodity Index continues weakening ...Normally this combination argues against a sustained commodity rally.
However... Corn has stopped falling.....That divergence deserves attention. Wyckoff Assessment : This week's chart looks much better.
Selling Climax : 369
↓
Automatic Rally : 488
↓
Secondary Test : 404
↓
Current : 424
That sequence resembles a classic accumulation structure more than ongoing markdown.
The key difference from few weeks ago: Price is no longer making new lows.
Instead:
Higher low
↓
Recovery above Weekly POC
↓
Building cause ....This is constructive. Scenario 1
🟢 Re accumulation continues
Targets:
430
436
449
480
Scenario 2
🟡 Large Elliott Triangle
Sideways contraction before a decisive move. 🔴 Wave 5 decline toward 369
Would require:
break below 404
break below 394
Wheat and Soybeans rolling over together
continued USD strength with worsening crop fundamentals. Today, I think the evidence has shifted.
The technical structure is gradually becoming more constructive: Managed Money has moved to a net-short posture.
Commercials continue reducing hedges.
Price has reclaimed the weekly value area after the 404 liquidity sweep.
The biggest obstacle is macro, not structure. A DXY at 100.94 and real yields at 2.263% are significant headwinds. If those begin to soften while Wheat and Soybeans continue leading higher—as previously observed—the probability increases that Corn is completing a re accumulation phase rather than preparing for another major markdown.
Negative factors :
DXY above 100
Real Yield above 2.25%
Bloomberg Commodity Index continues weakening ...Normally this combination argues against a sustained commodity rally.
However... Corn has stopped falling.....That divergence deserves attention. Wyckoff Assessment : This week's chart looks much better.
Selling Climax : 369
↓
Automatic Rally : 488
↓
Secondary Test : 404
↓
Current : 424
That sequence resembles a classic accumulation structure more than ongoing markdown.
The key difference from few weeks ago: Price is no longer making new lows.
Instead:
Higher low
↓
Recovery above Weekly POC
↓
Building cause ....This is constructive. Scenario 1
🟢 Re accumulation continues
Targets:
430
436
449
480
Scenario 2
🟡 Large Elliott Triangle
Sideways contraction before a decisive move. 🔴 Wave 5 decline toward 369
Would require:
break below 404
break below 394
Wheat and Soybeans rolling over together
continued USD strength with worsening crop fundamentals. Today, I think the evidence has shifted.
The technical structure is gradually becoming more constructive: Managed Money has moved to a net-short posture.
Commercials continue reducing hedges.
Price has reclaimed the weekly value area after the 404 liquidity sweep.
The biggest obstacle is macro, not structure. A DXY at 100.94 and real yields at 2.263% are significant headwinds. If those begin to soften while Wheat and Soybeans continue leading higher—as previously observed—the probability increases that Corn is completing a re accumulation phase rather than preparing for another major markdown.
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Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.