EURGBP Update: Remains Under Bearish Pressure Within An ImpulseEURGBP is moving nicely lower as anticipated back in May and June, continuing the expected decline after completing the previous corrective structure. The pair is now developing the final wave E, which can take some time to complete, as wave E is expected to unfold in a three-wave (A)(B)(C) structure.
Following the completion of the wave (B) bearish triangle pattern, EURGBP has started a strong decline within the projected wave (C) of E. The current downside structure suggests there is still room for further weakness, with the 0.8400–0.8300 area becoming an important potential target zone. This move could unfold through a lower-degree five-wave bearish impulse, completing the final stages of the larger corrective pattern.
On the 4H chart, EURGBP continues to extend lower as expected on July 1st, but currently it can be making a higher degree abc correction in wave 4, which could retrace the price back toward the ideal 38,2% Fibonacci retracement and 0.8545 resistance area before the next leg lower begins within wave 5.
As long as the broader bearish structure remains intact, any recovery should be viewed as corrective rather than a trend reversal.
XAUUSD — Key Entry Zones Around OB and FVG
Gold is trading around $3,998 after recovering slightly from the lower Buy zone OB around $3,980–$3,985. The short-term reaction shows that buyers are trying to defend this demand area, but the overall structure is still not fully bullish because price remains below the upper OB and FVG supply zones.
From an SMC perspective, gold recently created bearish BOS and continued to trade below the previous structure. The current bounce from the lower OB looks more like a reaction from liquidity rather than a confirmed bullish reversal. This means the buy zone can be used for short-term reaction, but the stronger decision areas are still above, especially around $4,038–$4,041 and the FVG zone near $4,051–$4,058.
The main plan is to wait for price to react clearly around the marked zones. Buying near the lower OB is only valid with confirmation, while selling near the upper OB or FVG remains the cleaner setup if sellers defend those areas.
Buy scalping setup
Condition:
Gold holds the Buy zone OB around $3,980–$3,985 and forms bullish rejection with lower timeframe MSS / CHOCH.
Entry: $3,980–$3,985
SL: below $3,970
TP1: $4,000
TP2: $4,020
TP3: $4,038–$4,041
Sell setup 1
Condition:
Gold recovers into the OB sell zone around $4,038–$4,041 and forms bearish rejection.
Entry: $4,038–$4,041
SL: above $4,058
TP1: $4,020
TP2: $4,000
TP3: $3,980–$3,985
Sell setup 2
Condition:
If gold pushes higher into the FVG zone around $4,051–$4,058 and fails to break above it, this can create a stronger sell setup.
Entry: $4,051–$4,058 after rejection
SL: above $4,075
TP1: $4,038–$4,041
TP2: $4,000
TP3: $3,980–$3,985
TP4: $3,960
Sell setup 3
Condition:
If gold breaks cleanly below the Buy zone OB and retests it as resistance, bearish continuation becomes active.
Entry: below $3,980 after breakdown retest
SL: above $4,000
TP1: $3,970
TP2: $3,960
TP3: $3,942
Key levels
Current price area: $3,998
Buy zone OB: $3,980–$3,985
Short-term reaction area: $4,000–$4,020
OB sell zone: $4,038–$4,041
FVG sell zone: $4,051–$4,058
Bearish continuation level: below $3,980
Lower target: $3,960
Major lower liquidity: $3,942
Bullish scalp confirmation: clean reaction above $3,985
Sell confirmation: bearish rejection from $4,038–$4,058
Bearish invalidation: clean 2H close above $4,075
My current view is that gold can react from the lower Buy zone OB, but the main structure is still fragile. The Prime Gold plan is to avoid entering in the middle and only look for trades around the marked zones: short-term buy from $3,980–$3,985 if confirmed, or sell from $4,038–$4,041 and $4,051–$4,058 if sellers reject strongly. If gold loses $3,980 cleanly, the bearish path toward $3,960 and $3,942 becomes active again.
No confirmation, no trade.
Long
EURUSD — Bullish Channel Retest Setup
Fundamental Analysis
EURUSD is still reacting to USD momentum and upcoming macro data. For now, the short-term structure remains positive while price continues to respect the rising channel.
Technical Analysis
On the 2H chart, EURUSD is trading around 1.1437 and holding inside a clear bullish channel. The key buy zone is around 1.1415 - 1.1420, where the 0.382 Fibonacci area, FVG support, and lower channel reaction align. If price holds this value zone, buyers may push EURUSD back toward 1.1487, then the resistance and Fibonacci target around 1.1519 - 1.1526.
Important Key Levels
Current price: 1.1437
Main buy zone: 1.1415 - 1.1420
Short-term support: 1.1403
Liquidity area: 1.1487
FVG resistance: 1.1490 - 1.1510
Main target: 1.1519 - 1.1526
Invalidation: below 1.1403
Trading Scenario
Main Buy Setup
Entry: 1.1415 - 1.1420
Stop Loss: 1.1403
Take Profit 1: 1.1487
Take Profit 2: 1.1510
Take Profit 3: 1.1519 - 1.1526
Buy Condition
Wait for EURUSD to retest the 1.1415 - 1.1420 buy zone and show bullish rejection. A clean hold above this area keeps the bullish channel valid. If price breaks above 1.1487, upside momentum may extend toward the Fibonacci resistance zone at 1.1519 - 1.1526. If price breaks and holds below 1.1403, the buy setup is invalid.
Overall View
EURUSD remains bullish while price stays inside the rising channel and holds above the 0.382 Fibonacci value zone. The preferred plan is to wait for confirmation around 1.1415 - 1.1420, then look for continuation toward 1.1487 and 1.1519 - 1.1526.
Do you share the same bullish view on EURUSD, or are you waiting for a cleaner retest of the buy zone first?
XAUUSD — Strong Support Tested, Recovery SetupFundamental Analysis
Gold remains sensitive to USD momentum, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data. For now, short-term price action shows a possible technical recovery as buyers continue to defend the same support zone.
Technical Analysis
On the 1H chart, XAUUSD is trading around 3,995 after testing the strong support area near 3,960 - 3,970 multiple times. This repeated reaction shows that sellers are losing some pressure at the low. The first buy zone is around 3,983 - 3,987. If price holds this zone, gold may correct higher toward the liquidity level at 4,017, then the sell FVG area around 4,050 - 4,055. A stronger recovery may target the VL zone around 4,095 - 4,105.
Important Key Levels
Current price: 3,995
Strong support: 3,960 - 3,970
Main buy zone: 3,983 - 3,987
Liquidity level: 4,017
Sell FVG zone: 4,050 - 4,055
Main recovery target: 4,095 - 4,105
Invalidation: below 3,960
Trading Scenario
Main Buy Setup
Entry: 3,983 - 3,987
Stop Loss: 3,960
Take Profit 1: 4,017
Take Profit 2: 4,050 - 4,055
Take Profit 3: 4,095 - 4,105
Buy Condition
Wait for gold to hold the 3,983 - 3,987 buy zone and show bullish rejection. A clean reaction above this zone keeps the recovery setup valid. If price breaks above 4,017, the corrective move may extend toward 4,050 - 4,055. If price breaks and holds below 3,960, the buy setup is invalid.
Overall View
XAUUSD is still under broader downtrend pressure, but the repeated test of strong support suggests a possible short-term correction. The preferred plan is to wait for confirmation around 3,983 - 3,987, then look for recovery toward 4,017, 4,055, and 4,095 - 4,105.
Do you think gold can recover from this strong support zone, or will sellers break it on the next test?
Long 
The Elephant Jungle 7/17/26 Page 4So, What’s the Play Red?
Well, the 2H Order Block is looking like a solid area to look for a short, but only if the confirmations are there. As you already know, that 18H Order Block is the level I am really watching for a long play. That is where I think the Bulls have the best chance to step up and fight back.
That is my game plan for today. Now I want to hear yours. Do you think the Bulls are about to make a comeback, or are the Bears getting ready to take this market even lower? Drop your thoughts in the comments. I always enjoy hearing how everyone is reading the market.
And, like always, trade safe, use good risk management, stay patient, and wait for your levels and confirmations. The market is not paying the fastest trader, it is paying the most disciplined one.
Until next time. ORCL - From Erections Come CorrectionsORCL is a textbook example of a setup I call: “From Erections Come Corrections.”
1. It also shows why log charts lie to you on the way down.
When you’re evaluating downside risk, remember: every stock is always 100% away from zero.
A linear chart makes the real danger obvious. I don’t even need to measure this one — the drop is roughly 50% staring you in the face.
2. Look at the speed of that drop.
If you’re one of those heroes trying to squeeze an extra 3% at the top and end up wearing a -50% drawdown because you had no exit plan… that’s not bad luck — that’s greed and negligence teaming up to hand you a bag of sh*t.
3. But if you actually respected risk, took profits, and GTFO/STFO with cash in hand?
Now you get to walk back in as a well-refined gentleman or lady, gracefully to start building a position at at a “500% discount,” as Trump would say.
4. Notice anything magical on my chart?0
No algos. No secret indicators. No fairy-tale narratives. Not even candlesticks. Just plain vanilla price action.
That’s proper charting. Keep it simple.
You chose to play this game, so at least play it right.
Lastly, if the market tanks here, ORCL will just keep tanking as well. BUT! you will be getting in with a 50% discount already. That, my friends, is the difference.
THANK YOU for getting me to 5,000 followers! 🙏🔥
Let’s keep climbing.
If you enjoy the work:
👉 Drop a solid comment
Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in truth, not hype.
Long
Long
Gold Tests Major Support — Can Bulls Defend the 4,000 Zone?Market View
Gold continues to trade within a broader bearish structure on the 4H chart. Since reversing from the 4,700 area, the price has consistently formed lower highs and lower lows, confirming that sellers still control the overall trend. The recent decline has brought Gold back to the psychological 4,000 level, where buying interest has started to emerge. Although downside momentum has slowed, buyers have yet to deliver a convincing reversal, making this a critical area to watch over the coming sessions.
Key Areas
From a market structure perspective, Gold remains bearish, while short-term price action is transitioning into a consolidation phase near a major support level.
The first key resistance zone is located at 4,080–4,120, where previous rebounds were rejected. A sustained break above this area would open the door toward the next resistance around 4,180–4,220, which would significantly improve short-term bullish momentum.
On the downside, the immediate key support remains at 3,980–4,000. This is the most important level buyers need to defend. If this support fails, the next downside target is the 3,900–3,940 zone, where stronger buying interest may reappear.
Forward Outlook
The bullish scenario requires Gold to hold firmly above the **3,980–4,000** support area and reclaim 4,120. A successful breakout could allow price to extend toward **4,180–4,220**, signalling that buyers are gradually regaining control.
The bearish scenario remains valid if the price loses the 3,980–4,000 support zone. In that case, selling pressure could accelerate toward 3,900–3,940, keeping the broader downtrend intact until buyers establish a stronger base.
Market Sentiment
Market sentiment remains cautiously bearish. While buyers are attempting to defend the psychological 4,000 level, the overall trend still favors sellers until Gold breaks back above the major resistance zones. The current price action suggests consolidation rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
Please share your view below:
Will Gold hold above the 4,000 support zone and continue higher? Or will sellers defend the resistance and push the price toward 3,900?
More market structure and key level updates will be shared regularly.
Long
ABEV - Bearish Trend Faces a Major Test!ABEV (Ambev S.A.) is one of the largest beverage companies in Latin America, producing and distributing well-known beer, soft drink, and beverage brands across the region. The stock has attracted long-term investors due to its strong market position and defensive business model.
From a technical perspective, ABEV remains overall bearish, continuing to trade inside the red descending channel that has guided price action over the longer term.
Over the past few years, price has been consolidating inside the orange trading range and has now reached an important technical area where the upper boundary of the descending channel aligns with the range resistance.
⭕This confluence creates an attractive area to monitor for sell setups on lower timeframes, particularly if price shows signs of rejection from the current resistance.
⭕However, if buyers manage to break above both the range resistance and the descending channel, it could provide the first strong indication that the long-term bearish trend is losing control and that a broader bullish reversal may be beginning.
The reaction around this technical zone may determine whether sellers can maintain control of the broader trend, or if buyers are preparing to shift the long-term market structure.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis reflects my personal market view and is not financial advice.
Rayan Nasser
#ABEV #Stocks #Investing #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #MarketStructure #TrendAnalysis 
Short
Short 
Why Markets Move Every day, millions of traders watch price charts, searching for the next big move.
Some rely on indicators.
Others study chart patterns or economic news.
Yet beneath every candle, every breakout, and every trend lies one simple process that drives every financial market:
An auction between buyers and sellers.
The market doesn't move because an indicator turns green or a news headline appears. It moves because buyers and sellers constantly negotiate what an asset is worth.
Understanding this auction changes the way you see price charts. Instead of looking at random candles, you begin to see a continuous battle between supply and demand.
Every Trade Has Two Sides
For every buyer, there must be a seller.
When you buy a stock, someone else is willing to sell it.
When you sell Bitcoin, another trader believes it's worth buying.
This exchange creates the market.
Price doesn't move simply because people buy or sell. It moves when one side becomes more aggressive than the other.
If buyers are willing to pay increasingly higher prices, the market rises.
If sellers become more eager to accept lower prices, the market falls.
The chart is simply a visual record of this ongoing negotiation.
Why Price Doesn't Stay Still
Imagine an auction for a valuable painting.
If several people want it, they continue raising their bids.
Each higher bid pushes the price upward.
Financial markets work the same way.
Strong buying pressure forces buyers to offer higher prices.
Strong selling pressure forces sellers to accept lower prices.
This constant competition creates trends, pullbacks, consolidations, and breakouts.
Price is always searching for a level where buyers and sellers temporarily agree.
The Balance Between Supply and Demand
Markets spend much of their time searching for balance.
When buyers and sellers are equally active, price often moves sideways.
This is known as consolidation.
Eventually, one side gains confidence.
Perhaps buyers become more aggressive after positive earnings.
Perhaps sellers react to disappointing economic data.
The balance shifts, and price begins moving in a new direction.
Every trend begins with an imbalance between supply and demand.
The Role of Institutions
Retail traders are only one part of the market.
Large institutions, hedge funds, banks, and investment firms manage enormous positions.
Because of their size, they cannot always enter or exit trades immediately.
They often require significant liquidity to complete their orders.
This is one reason price frequently revisits important highs, lows, and support or resistance zones.
These areas contain the volume institutions need to execute large transactions.
Understanding this helps explain why the market sometimes appears to move in unexpected ways.
Why Markets Trend
A trend is simply the result of one side consistently winning the auction.
During an uptrend, buyers repeatedly show they are willing to pay higher prices.
Each higher high and higher low reflects growing demand.
During a downtrend, sellers become increasingly aggressive.
Each lower high and lower low shows that supply is overpowering demand.
The trend continues until the balance changes.
Why Consolidation Happens
Not every trading session produces a strong trend.
Sometimes buyers hesitate.
Sometimes sellers become less aggressive.
Neither side has enough conviction to move price significantly.
This creates consolidation.
Many traders become frustrated during these periods.
Professional traders understand that consolidation is simply the market preparing for its next decision.
The longer the balance remains, the more meaningful the eventual breakout often becomes.
Reading the Story Behind the Candles
Every candlestick tells part of the auction's story.
A strong bullish candle shows buyers overwhelming sellers.
A long upper wick reveals sellers rejecting higher prices.
A small candle reflects uncertainty.
A large bearish candle signals aggressive selling pressure.
Instead of memorizing patterns, ask a simple question:
Who is winning the auction right now?
That single question often provides more insight than any indicator.
Final words:
Markets are not random.
They are continuous auctions where buyers and sellers negotiate value every second.
Every trend begins with an imbalance.
Every consolidation reflects temporary agreement.
Every breakout signals a shift in conviction.
When you stop looking at charts as collections of candles and start viewing them as a record of buyer and seller behavior, technical analysis becomes much easier to understand.
Because every move in the market begins with one simple question:
Who is willing to pay more, and who is willing to accept less?
The answer to that question is what moves every market.
Education 
Gold Long Idea at a Key Support ZoneGold is currently trading once again near a technically important support zone between approximately 3,930 and 4,005. This area has already been tested several times on the chart and previously produced strong reactions from buyers.
The current pullback into this zone could therefore offer an interesting long opportunity. At the same time, the Volume Profile shows increased trading activity around the current price, which adds further importance to the 4,000 area.
However, I would not enter blindly at support. I would first wait for clear bullish confirmation.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
If Gold manages to defend the support zone and moves back above approximately 4,025–4,050, a recovery toward the higher resistance levels could develop.
Potential target areas:
First target: 4,050–4,075
Second target: 4,125–4,160
Main target: 4,205–4,235
The area between approximately 4,205 and 4,235 represents the next major resistance zone. Stronger selling pressure could appear there, so securing partial profits at the intermediate targets may be reasonable.
Potential Long Confirmations
A long entry would become interesting to me only after at least one of the following signals appears:
A strong lower wick inside or below the support zone
A bullish reversal candle
A false breakout below 4,000, followed by a quick reclaim
A clear candle close above 4,025–4,050
An aggressive entry could be considered directly after a strong reaction from support. A more conservative approach would be to wait for a confirmed reclaim of the nearby resistance levels.
🔴 Bearish Scenario and Invalidation
If Gold clearly loses the support zone and closes below approximately 3,930, the long idea would be invalidated for the time being.
In that case, the downward move could continue toward 3,900 or lower. A stop-loss should therefore be placed clearly below the support zone and adjusted according to the trader’s position size and risk tolerance.
Conclusion
Gold is currently trading at an important decision area. As long as the zone between 3,930 and 4,005 holds, a bullish recovery toward 4,150 and potentially 4,205–4,235 remains possible.
I am waiting for a clear reaction from buyers and would not enter the market without confirmation.
This is not financial advice. Always wait for confirmation and manage your risk carefully.
