The Stop Odds: how often a stop this far away was hit
The Stop Odds shows where a stop would be hit, and how often, over the window you choose: the next two hours, the next four, or to gold's 17:00 New York close.
From the last 30 minute close it looks back at the same time of day on the last 250 days, or as many as the chart's history holds (about 200 at the default setting), and counts how far price went over the window, each day measured in its own ATR. It draws where that got to on half of those days, on one in four and on one in ten, above and below the price. A stop on a line was hit that often. Every window ends at the 17:00 New York close if the close comes first.
THE WINDOW
Choose it at the top of the settings. The longer a stop has to survive, the further away it has to sit to be hit as rarely. From the 09:00 New York close on 17 June 2026, a stop 28.56 under the price read HIT 36 IN 100 by 11:00, HIT 44 IN 100 by 13:00 and HIT 50 IN 100 by the 17:00 close. Each window keeps its own counts and its own record.
To the close, with more than 8 hours left, the counts come true but are no sharper than a plain random walk sized by yesterday's range, and the panel says so.
YOUR STOP
Click your stop on the chart when you add the script, or type its price in the settings. Its line reads, for example, YOUR STOP · 4,305.00 · $28.56 · HIT 36 IN 100 BY 11:00 NY: on 36 of every 100 earlier days, price went that far from this time of day before 11:00. A target can be typed in and is read the same way. When price reaches either, its label says when. When your stop sits on one of the lines, its label takes that line's place.
WHAT IS DRAWN
Six lines from the last 30 minute close, each with its odds, how far it is and its price, for example A STOP HERE: HIT 1 IN 2 · $18.58 · 4,352.14 and 1 IN 4 · $34.13 · 4,367.69, blue above the price and red below. A cone joins them at four points: every 30 minutes over two hours, every hour over four, and the quarters of what is left of the day to the close. They move every 30 minutes.
THE PANEL
The window you chose. FROM: the close the counts start from, and when the window ends. HIT 1 IN 2: how far above and below the price a stop was hit on half of the days. YOUR STOP and YOUR TARGET: the price, how far it is, and its odds. ITS RECORD: what the lines said against how often they were reached, on every call in the history it reads, for the window you chose.
HOW IT HELD UP
Read walk-forward on gold's 30 minute bars from January 2023 to June 2026, each day counted only from the days before it.
Two hours, 36,446 calls on 815 days: the half lines were reached 50.0 times in 100 above the price and 49.2 below, the one in four lines 25.5 and 25.3, the one in ten lines 10.7 and 10.6. In every band of odds, what the counts said stayed within 3.7 in 100 of what came. Then it was judged once on silver, a metal it was not built on, by a test written down before it ran: January 2023 to October 2026, 39,971 calls on 894 days, the half lines reached 49.2 and 48.7 times in 100, the one in four lines 25.0 and 24.7, the one in ten lines 10.5 and 10.6, and what the counts said within 2.4 in 100 of what came in every band.
Four hours, 36,362 calls on 815 days: the half lines 49.8 and 49.5, the one in four lines 25.2 and 25.4, the one in ten lines 10.5 and 10.7, every band within 2.6 in 100.
To the close, 35,840 calls on 814 days: the half lines 49.5 and 49.2, the one in four lines 24.3 and 25.6, the one in ten lines 9.6 and 10.7, every band within 1.3 in 100.
Four hours and the close were then judged once on silver by a test written down before it ran, January 2023 to October 2026. Four hours, 39,878 calls on 894 days: the half lines reached 49.1 and 49.0 times in 100, the one in four lines 24.8 and 24.8, the one in ten lines 10.4 and 10.6, every band within 2.1 in 100. To the close, 39,276 calls on 891 days: the half lines 48.6 and 49.1, the one in four lines 24.5 and 25.1, the one in ten lines 10.0 and 10.3, every band within 1.4 in 100.
Past counts describe the past only.
ALERTS
One when your stop's odds rise to the level you set, 25 in 100 by default, and one when price reaches your stop or your target. Create one alert on the script with Any alert() function call.
NOTES
Built for gold's day, 18:00 to 17:00 New York. Runs on charts of 30 minutes or less, on every TradingView plan: it reads 30 minute history directly. Each time of day needs 60 earlier days before it prints. Over the weekend it shows Friday's last call, and the counts start again at Sunday's 18:00 New York open. It counts the past and calls no side.
From the last 30 minute close it looks back at the same time of day on the last 250 days, or as many as the chart's history holds (about 200 at the default setting), and counts how far price went over the window, each day measured in its own ATR. It draws where that got to on half of those days, on one in four and on one in ten, above and below the price. A stop on a line was hit that often. Every window ends at the 17:00 New York close if the close comes first.
THE WINDOW
Choose it at the top of the settings. The longer a stop has to survive, the further away it has to sit to be hit as rarely. From the 09:00 New York close on 17 June 2026, a stop 28.56 under the price read HIT 36 IN 100 by 11:00, HIT 44 IN 100 by 13:00 and HIT 50 IN 100 by the 17:00 close. Each window keeps its own counts and its own record.
To the close, with more than 8 hours left, the counts come true but are no sharper than a plain random walk sized by yesterday's range, and the panel says so.
YOUR STOP
Click your stop on the chart when you add the script, or type its price in the settings. Its line reads, for example, YOUR STOP · 4,305.00 · $28.56 · HIT 36 IN 100 BY 11:00 NY: on 36 of every 100 earlier days, price went that far from this time of day before 11:00. A target can be typed in and is read the same way. When price reaches either, its label says when. When your stop sits on one of the lines, its label takes that line's place.
WHAT IS DRAWN
Six lines from the last 30 minute close, each with its odds, how far it is and its price, for example A STOP HERE: HIT 1 IN 2 · $18.58 · 4,352.14 and 1 IN 4 · $34.13 · 4,367.69, blue above the price and red below. A cone joins them at four points: every 30 minutes over two hours, every hour over four, and the quarters of what is left of the day to the close. They move every 30 minutes.
THE PANEL
The window you chose. FROM: the close the counts start from, and when the window ends. HIT 1 IN 2: how far above and below the price a stop was hit on half of the days. YOUR STOP and YOUR TARGET: the price, how far it is, and its odds. ITS RECORD: what the lines said against how often they were reached, on every call in the history it reads, for the window you chose.
HOW IT HELD UP
Read walk-forward on gold's 30 minute bars from January 2023 to June 2026, each day counted only from the days before it.
Two hours, 36,446 calls on 815 days: the half lines were reached 50.0 times in 100 above the price and 49.2 below, the one in four lines 25.5 and 25.3, the one in ten lines 10.7 and 10.6. In every band of odds, what the counts said stayed within 3.7 in 100 of what came. Then it was judged once on silver, a metal it was not built on, by a test written down before it ran: January 2023 to October 2026, 39,971 calls on 894 days, the half lines reached 49.2 and 48.7 times in 100, the one in four lines 25.0 and 24.7, the one in ten lines 10.5 and 10.6, and what the counts said within 2.4 in 100 of what came in every band.
Four hours, 36,362 calls on 815 days: the half lines 49.8 and 49.5, the one in four lines 25.2 and 25.4, the one in ten lines 10.5 and 10.7, every band within 2.6 in 100.
To the close, 35,840 calls on 814 days: the half lines 49.5 and 49.2, the one in four lines 24.3 and 25.6, the one in ten lines 9.6 and 10.7, every band within 1.3 in 100.
Four hours and the close were then judged once on silver by a test written down before it ran, January 2023 to October 2026. Four hours, 39,878 calls on 894 days: the half lines reached 49.1 and 49.0 times in 100, the one in four lines 24.8 and 24.8, the one in ten lines 10.4 and 10.6, every band within 2.1 in 100. To the close, 39,276 calls on 891 days: the half lines 48.6 and 49.1, the one in four lines 24.5 and 25.1, the one in ten lines 10.0 and 10.3, every band within 1.4 in 100.
Past counts describe the past only.
ALERTS
One when your stop's odds rise to the level you set, 25 in 100 by default, and one when price reaches your stop or your target. Create one alert on the script with Any alert() function call.
NOTES
Built for gold's day, 18:00 to 17:00 New York. Runs on charts of 30 minutes or less, on every TradingView plan: it reads 30 minute history directly. Each time of day needs 60 earlier days before it prints. Over the weekend it shows Friday's last call, and the counts start again at Sunday's 18:00 New York open. It counts the past and calls no side.
The Fan: 7 days free, then €149.99/month. Cancel before day 7 and pay nothing.
Start the trial: thesimplifier7.com/method.html
The record, every miss kept: thesimplifier7.com
Questions: DM @TheSimplifier7 on X
Start the trial: thesimplifier7.com/method.html
The record, every miss kept: thesimplifier7.com
Questions: DM @TheSimplifier7 on X
Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.
The Fan: 7 days free, then €149.99/month. Cancel before day 7 and pay nothing.
Start the trial: thesimplifier7.com/method.html
The record, every miss kept: thesimplifier7.com
Questions: DM @TheSimplifier7 on X
Start the trial: thesimplifier7.com/method.html
The record, every miss kept: thesimplifier7.com
Questions: DM @TheSimplifier7 on X
Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje nie stanowią i nie powinny być traktowane jako porady finansowe, inwestycyjne, tradingowe ani jakiekolwiek inne rekomendacje dostarczane lub zatwierdzone przez TradingView. Więcej informacji znajduje się w Warunkach użytkowania.