Market Context
- BTC rallied directly into a major premium zone inside the previous quarter dealing range.
- Price formed a 2-stage SMT divergence with Ethereum at the highs, showing weakening momentum before the rejection.
- Weekly SIBI acted as resistance and price immediately confirmed bearish CISD after failing to continue higher.
👉 Right now this looks more like distribution in premium, not bullish continuation.
Why I Think BTC Can Trade Lower First
- CISD already confirmed the shift in delivery
- Weekly SIBI rejection holding price
- Inversion respected after the breakdown
- Weak reaction after retracement
- Clear sell-side draw sitting below at Previous Month Low / Quarterly Low
👉 If BTC is truly bearish short-term, price should continue respecting the IFVG and keep delivering lower.
Main Draw On Liquidity
My current target is the Previous Quarter Low.
That’s where I believe larger players may look to rebalance price before the real expansion higher later this year.
Bullish Invalidation
- For bulls to regain control, BTC needs to:
- Reclaim the weekly SIBI
- Break current bearish structure
- Show strong displacement above the rejection highs
Until then, I’m treating rallies as retracements inside bearish delivery.
Main Idea
- Most traders are still expecting immediate continuation higher, but the chart is showing signs of distribution:
- SMT divergence, CISD confirmation, premium rejection, and weak bullish follow-through.
👉 I believe BTC may first seek deeper liquidity below before the actual macro pump begins.
Do you think Bitcoin sweeps quarterly lows first, or are bears about to get trapped here?
- BTC rallied directly into a major premium zone inside the previous quarter dealing range.
- Price formed a 2-stage SMT divergence with Ethereum at the highs, showing weakening momentum before the rejection.
- Weekly SIBI acted as resistance and price immediately confirmed bearish CISD after failing to continue higher.
👉 Right now this looks more like distribution in premium, not bullish continuation.
Why I Think BTC Can Trade Lower First
- CISD already confirmed the shift in delivery
- Weekly SIBI rejection holding price
- Inversion respected after the breakdown
- Weak reaction after retracement
- Clear sell-side draw sitting below at Previous Month Low / Quarterly Low
👉 If BTC is truly bearish short-term, price should continue respecting the IFVG and keep delivering lower.
Main Draw On Liquidity
My current target is the Previous Quarter Low.
That’s where I believe larger players may look to rebalance price before the real expansion higher later this year.
Bullish Invalidation
- For bulls to regain control, BTC needs to:
- Reclaim the weekly SIBI
- Break current bearish structure
- Show strong displacement above the rejection highs
Until then, I’m treating rallies as retracements inside bearish delivery.
Main Idea
- Most traders are still expecting immediate continuation higher, but the chart is showing signs of distribution:
- SMT divergence, CISD confirmation, premium rejection, and weak bullish follow-through.
👉 I believe BTC may first seek deeper liquidity below before the actual macro pump begins.
Do you think Bitcoin sweeps quarterly lows first, or are bears about to get trapped here?
Сделка активна
Bitcoin started to respect the Inversion now it should push lower 
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Отказ от ответственности
Информация и публикации не предназначены для предоставления и не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или другими видами советов или рекомендаций, предоставленных или одобренных TradingView. Подробнее читайте в Условиях использования.
🎁 Discord (Daily Giveaways):
discord.gg/ZT3CZZUUFX
✨ Use code WISE & get 2 FREE ACCOUNTS on payout:
propfirmwise.com/
discord.gg/ZT3CZZUUFX
✨ Use code WISE & get 2 FREE ACCOUNTS on payout:
propfirmwise.com/
Отказ от ответственности
Информация и публикации не предназначены для предоставления и не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или другими видами советов или рекомендаций, предоставленных или одобренных TradingView. Подробнее читайте в Условиях использования.