By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Commerzbank has intensified its defensive offensive against the public takeover bid launched by UniCredit, in a corporate battle that has become one of the main focal points of the European financial sector. The German entity has formally asked its shareholders to reject the proposal from the Italian bank, arguing that the operation significantly undervalues Commerzbank and presents high strategic and operational risks. UniCredit officially launched its offer in May with a valuation close to €35-39 billion, depending on the evolution of its share price. The proposal consists of an exchange of 0.485 UniCredit shares for each Commerzbank share. Taking UniCredit’s closing price prior to the formal launch of the offer as a reference, the proposal implied an approximate valuation of between €30.8 and €31.1 per Commerzbank share. However, shares of the German bank have traded above €34-35, even positioning themselves above the implied price of the Italian offer. This market behavior reflects that part of the market expects an improvement in the terms of the operation or considers it likely that UniCredit will end up increasing its stake through additional market purchases.
Currently, UniCredit controls close to 30% of Commerzbank’s capital between direct participation and financial derivatives, while voting rights linked to additional positions raise its potential influence to approximately 38.9%. The German government continues to be one of the main obstacles to the operation. Berlin maintains around a 12% stake in Commerzbank since the 2008 financial rescue and has repeatedly shown its rejection of a hostile absorption by the Italian group. Commerzbank’s management maintains that the entity can generate more value independently and recently presented new strategic objectives through 2030 to reinforce that narrative among shareholders. The bank also announced internal adjustments and cost reductions to improve profitability and strengthen its stock market position.
CBK Technical Analysis
Shares of XETRA started the session with a strong bullish bias following the market’s positive reaction to the defensive measures adopted by the entity against UniCredit’s offensive. During the first trading hour, the stock moved around €36.85-36.87, remaining close to recent highs and consolidating the buying pressure seen over recent weeks. From a technical point of view, the price has managed to break above the key resistance located at €36.43, corresponding to the highs recorded on May 7. This breakout leaves the stock with room to attack the April 22 highs area, whose breakout would confirm the continuation of the dominant bullish structure.
If a solid breakout above those levels is consolidated during the coming sessions, the market could begin pricing in an extension scenario toward the psychological €39 area, potentially entering free upward movement. This move would also reinforce Commerzbank’s market capitalization in the middle of its defensive process against the takeover bid, increasing its financial and negotiating capacity against UniCredit.
The technical structure continues to be supported by moving averages clearly oriented upward since mid-April, reflecting a positive underlying trend. The RSI remains in overbought territory, although it still maintains an upward slope, indicating that buying momentum remains active despite the high accumulated acceleration.
However, the MACD is beginning to show certain signs of deceleration in momentum. Although the indicator remains in positive territory and its main line continues above the signal line, the histogram is beginning to lose intensity, suggesting a possible partial exhaustion of short-term momentum.
Below the current price, the market maintains a relevant technical support zone between €33.45 and €29.32, where the point of control (POC) is also located around €31.24, a level that concentrates high trading volume over recent months. If the stock loses strength after the latest gains, a corrective movement toward the €33.45 area before attempting a new bullish extension cannot be ruled out.
The ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse risk indicator points to an extreme Risk-on environment for the third consecutive session, signaling a high overbought tendency in the European market.
From the market’s point of view, the operation is interpreted as a decisive test for European banking consolidation. Brussels has spent years defending the creation of large pan-European financial groups capable of competing with U.S. banks, but national political resistance continues to be one of the main limits for cross-border mergers. In the stock market, XETRA maintains a bullish evolution driven by corporate speculation and expectations of new negotiations. Meanwhile, BIT continues to be supported by solid financial results, although investors remain attentive to the impact that a large acquisition could have on its capital position and regulatory exposure.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Commerzbank has intensified its defensive offensive against the public takeover bid launched by UniCredit, in a corporate battle that has become one of the main focal points of the European financial sector. The German entity has formally asked its shareholders to reject the proposal from the Italian bank, arguing that the operation significantly undervalues Commerzbank and presents high strategic and operational risks. UniCredit officially launched its offer in May with a valuation close to €35-39 billion, depending on the evolution of its share price. The proposal consists of an exchange of 0.485 UniCredit shares for each Commerzbank share. Taking UniCredit’s closing price prior to the formal launch of the offer as a reference, the proposal implied an approximate valuation of between €30.8 and €31.1 per Commerzbank share. However, shares of the German bank have traded above €34-35, even positioning themselves above the implied price of the Italian offer. This market behavior reflects that part of the market expects an improvement in the terms of the operation or considers it likely that UniCredit will end up increasing its stake through additional market purchases.
Currently, UniCredit controls close to 30% of Commerzbank’s capital between direct participation and financial derivatives, while voting rights linked to additional positions raise its potential influence to approximately 38.9%. The German government continues to be one of the main obstacles to the operation. Berlin maintains around a 12% stake in Commerzbank since the 2008 financial rescue and has repeatedly shown its rejection of a hostile absorption by the Italian group. Commerzbank’s management maintains that the entity can generate more value independently and recently presented new strategic objectives through 2030 to reinforce that narrative among shareholders. The bank also announced internal adjustments and cost reductions to improve profitability and strengthen its stock market position.
CBK Technical Analysis
Shares of XETRA started the session with a strong bullish bias following the market’s positive reaction to the defensive measures adopted by the entity against UniCredit’s offensive. During the first trading hour, the stock moved around €36.85-36.87, remaining close to recent highs and consolidating the buying pressure seen over recent weeks. From a technical point of view, the price has managed to break above the key resistance located at €36.43, corresponding to the highs recorded on May 7. This breakout leaves the stock with room to attack the April 22 highs area, whose breakout would confirm the continuation of the dominant bullish structure.
If a solid breakout above those levels is consolidated during the coming sessions, the market could begin pricing in an extension scenario toward the psychological €39 area, potentially entering free upward movement. This move would also reinforce Commerzbank’s market capitalization in the middle of its defensive process against the takeover bid, increasing its financial and negotiating capacity against UniCredit.
The technical structure continues to be supported by moving averages clearly oriented upward since mid-April, reflecting a positive underlying trend. The RSI remains in overbought territory, although it still maintains an upward slope, indicating that buying momentum remains active despite the high accumulated acceleration.
However, the MACD is beginning to show certain signs of deceleration in momentum. Although the indicator remains in positive territory and its main line continues above the signal line, the histogram is beginning to lose intensity, suggesting a possible partial exhaustion of short-term momentum.
Below the current price, the market maintains a relevant technical support zone between €33.45 and €29.32, where the point of control (POC) is also located around €31.24, a level that concentrates high trading volume over recent months. If the stock loses strength after the latest gains, a corrective movement toward the €33.45 area before attempting a new bullish extension cannot be ruled out.
The ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse risk indicator points to an extreme Risk-on environment for the third consecutive session, signaling a high overbought tendency in the European market.
From the market’s point of view, the operation is interpreted as a decisive test for European banking consolidation. Brussels has spent years defending the creation of large pan-European financial groups capable of competing with U.S. banks, but national political resistance continues to be one of the main limits for cross-border mergers. In the stock market, XETRA maintains a bullish evolution driven by corporate speculation and expectations of new negotiations. Meanwhile, BIT continues to be supported by solid financial results, although investors remain attentive to the impact that a large acquisition could have on its capital position and regulatory exposure.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Отказ от ответственности
Информация и публикации не предназначены для предоставления и не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или другими видами советов или рекомендаций, предоставленных или одобренных TradingView. Подробнее читайте в Условиях использования.
Отказ от ответственности
Информация и публикации не предназначены для предоставления и не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или другими видами советов или рекомендаций, предоставленных или одобренных TradingView. Подробнее читайте в Условиях использования.