Copper just delivered a classic volatility sequence: a blow off into the 5.89 area, followed by a fast 27% flush in six days. Since printing the 4.29 low, price has been grinding higher and is now back into my short entry around 5.40, which is roughly a 26% retrace of the drop. What matters to me here is the structure: we retraced without a clean liquidity sweep above the prior extreme, which keeps the move looking corrective, not a fresh impulse leg.
On the macro side, the tape has been pricing a lot of bullish copper narratives at once. We have seen copper trade at record levels in global benchmarks, with the rally supported by supply risk headlines and policy driven optimism. That is exactly why I am interested in fading the retrace: when supply premium and bullish positioning get crowded, even small shifts in risk appetite can trigger sharp mean reversion. Recent reporting has highlighted how sensitive flows and inventory distribution can become when policy risk enters the picture, which tends to amplify volatility rather than smooth it.
Technically, I am treating 5.40 as the “decision zone” after the rebound. As long as price holds below the prior spike region near 5.89, my base case is a rotation back toward the mid range and ultimately a retest of the 4.29 low. If we reclaim the prior extreme and hold above it, that would invalidate the correction thesis and I would reassess.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
On the macro side, the tape has been pricing a lot of bullish copper narratives at once. We have seen copper trade at record levels in global benchmarks, with the rally supported by supply risk headlines and policy driven optimism. That is exactly why I am interested in fading the retrace: when supply premium and bullish positioning get crowded, even small shifts in risk appetite can trigger sharp mean reversion. Recent reporting has highlighted how sensitive flows and inventory distribution can become when policy risk enters the picture, which tends to amplify volatility rather than smooth it.
Technically, I am treating 5.40 as the “decision zone” after the rebound. As long as price holds below the prior spike region near 5.89, my base case is a rotation back toward the mid range and ultimately a retest of the 4.29 low. If we reclaim the prior extreme and hold above it, that would invalidate the correction thesis and I would reassess.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Сделка активна
Added to the Copper short at 6.500, so I am now running two open entries. If price rotates back into 5.000 to 5.200, I will start taking the trade off and likely close the positions, and if we get a deeper flush into 4.400 to 4.000, I will use that as the main zone to fully exit and lock the move.
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Отказ от ответственности
Информация и публикации не предназначены для предоставления и не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или другими видами советов или рекомендаций, предоставленных или одобренных TradingView. Подробнее читайте в Условиях использования.