The larger trend is down.
Shorter term trend is up.
There are 3 cases to be made here.
I currently don't see any reason for the green case, but perhaps the yellow. Gold and silver are signaling for the red case.
Strong Dollar Camp
- Scott Bessent's comments were helpful "strong dollar policy".
- Long Term Yields are rising. If they are relatively higher than their peers and confidence in the U.S. returns, it could be massively bullish.
Neutral Camp
Jerome Powell essentially walked away today, and said the rest is up to the next guy.... Did nothing to defend the dollar, or weaken it further. Stable Mable.
Weak Dollar Camp
- Trump weakens the dollar "who needs allies".
- Congress just wants to keep printing more to spend, they're only arguing about what to spend it on...
Shorter term trend is up.
There are 3 cases to be made here.
I currently don't see any reason for the green case, but perhaps the yellow. Gold and silver are signaling for the red case.
Strong Dollar Camp
- Scott Bessent's comments were helpful "strong dollar policy".
- Long Term Yields are rising. If they are relatively higher than their peers and confidence in the U.S. returns, it could be massively bullish.
Neutral Camp
Jerome Powell essentially walked away today, and said the rest is up to the next guy.... Did nothing to defend the dollar, or weaken it further. Stable Mable.
Weak Dollar Camp
- Trump weakens the dollar "who needs allies".
- Congress just wants to keep printing more to spend, they're only arguing about what to spend it on...
Заметка
Definitely looking weak right now on the smaller time frame.Bears in full control.
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