The strategy is buying into an extended ALMA-short leg.
15m through 1D: SHORT on the tile; 3D and 1W: LONG — bounce machinery on lower timeframes inside a higher-timeframe that has already flipped LONG in this export. 4H: Cur Short 7 versus Avg Short ~3.5 (diff 3.5 on that bar). 15m: Cur Short 6 versus ~3.2; 1H: 4 versus ~3.0. The live strategy table on the 4H screenshot shows Cur Short 9 versus Avg Short ~3.5 — diff 5.5, which clears the 4-bar entry gate. Weekly short run in the snapshot is L=2 with LAvg ~2.9 — not the driver; the trade thesis lives on the 4H SHORT stretch.
EMA / session grid (metric export same log, ~2,170)
Mixed stack: 15m–1H–3D–1W Below; 4H and 1D Above with non-zero Cur Long on those columns in the print — “rebound under the hood” while faster frames still sit Below. 3D Cur Short 27 versus Avg Short ~11.5 in that row is a regime-scale below-EMA persistence outlier worth noting for context (stale versus the latest candle, but it flags how deep the wash was).
SMC — current and recent
4H (~2,178, 09.04): In FVG Bull; bar prints FVG Raid Bear and FVG Enter Bull together — two-way gap work. Ladder steps down from ~2,214 → ~2,209 → ~2,188 with alternating bull/bear FVG language — no clean one-direction tape.
1D (~2,188): Outside OB/FVG “zone” on that template; recent ledger runs through bear raids ~2,239 → ~2,106 area with mitigations — liquidity-style churn.
1W (~2,109): In FVG Bull with raid/enter bull pairing on the weekly print — higher-timeframe dip vocabulary while price has already retraced higher.
1D burst same log: ALMA Short | Fractal High / Low | New Bull FVG | Bull FVG Filled — compressed event stack, interpret as volatility around structure, not a single verdict.
Derivatives — skew (flow strip)
Funding slightly positive (longs pay shorts in the capture). Open interest off local highs. Account long/short ratio ~1.9 with ~66% accounts long — crowded long into the dip, which is a headwind for “contrarian hero” narratives even if the ALMA book is counter-trend. CVD slightly negative on the right edge — immediate tape not showing aggressive lift.
Social — attention vs sentiment
Sentiment stays elevated (~67% in the strip) while Galaxy Score and AltRank read mid/off-peak versus the March excitement — loud bulls, cooler attention gauges. Interactions and active contributors cooled from February spikes; baseline chatter remains.
On-chain / holder context (panels on idea chart)
Supply equality ratio grinding higher; one-year active supply % drifting down in the valuation strip — language of supply getting stickier. Address-with-balance count trends up long term; whale share and large-ticket flows are quieter after the February volume/fee spike — “network still there, velocity cooled.” Holder panes in the bundle show large-USD balances marked down through the drawdown with some stabilization; whale-address count stepped up in April in one view — concentration story, not a timing trigger.
Bull case
4H ALMA SHORT with Cur Short well above average versus the 3.5-bar norm (screenshot 9 vs 3.5); snapshot family shows the same SHORT jacket on 15m–1H–4H–1D with 3D/1W LONG — fits the script’s buy-the-stretched-short-leg brief. SMC still logs weekly bull FVG context; structure on 4H is inside bull FVG with active fills.
Bear case
Perps show long crowding and mild positive funding; CVD does not confirm urgency. EMA metric mix (4H/1D Above with Cur Long) flags bounce risk if the short leg stalls before adds finish. Stricter 4-bar entry filter reduces noise but does not remove trend risk; 25% per bar sizing magnifies wrong-side bleed. No strategy backtest panel in this bundle — do not invent stats.
15m through 1D: SHORT on the tile; 3D and 1W: LONG — bounce machinery on lower timeframes inside a higher-timeframe that has already flipped LONG in this export. 4H: Cur Short 7 versus Avg Short ~3.5 (diff 3.5 on that bar). 15m: Cur Short 6 versus ~3.2; 1H: 4 versus ~3.0. The live strategy table on the 4H screenshot shows Cur Short 9 versus Avg Short ~3.5 — diff 5.5, which clears the 4-bar entry gate. Weekly short run in the snapshot is L=2 with LAvg ~2.9 — not the driver; the trade thesis lives on the 4H SHORT stretch.
EMA / session grid (metric export same log, ~2,170)
Mixed stack: 15m–1H–3D–1W Below; 4H and 1D Above with non-zero Cur Long on those columns in the print — “rebound under the hood” while faster frames still sit Below. 3D Cur Short 27 versus Avg Short ~11.5 in that row is a regime-scale below-EMA persistence outlier worth noting for context (stale versus the latest candle, but it flags how deep the wash was).
SMC — current and recent
4H (~2,178, 09.04): In FVG Bull; bar prints FVG Raid Bear and FVG Enter Bull together — two-way gap work. Ladder steps down from ~2,214 → ~2,209 → ~2,188 with alternating bull/bear FVG language — no clean one-direction tape.
1D (~2,188): Outside OB/FVG “zone” on that template; recent ledger runs through bear raids ~2,239 → ~2,106 area with mitigations — liquidity-style churn.
1W (~2,109): In FVG Bull with raid/enter bull pairing on the weekly print — higher-timeframe dip vocabulary while price has already retraced higher.
1D burst same log: ALMA Short | Fractal High / Low | New Bull FVG | Bull FVG Filled — compressed event stack, interpret as volatility around structure, not a single verdict.
Derivatives — skew (flow strip)
Funding slightly positive (longs pay shorts in the capture). Open interest off local highs. Account long/short ratio ~1.9 with ~66% accounts long — crowded long into the dip, which is a headwind for “contrarian hero” narratives even if the ALMA book is counter-trend. CVD slightly negative on the right edge — immediate tape not showing aggressive lift.
Social — attention vs sentiment
Sentiment stays elevated (~67% in the strip) while Galaxy Score and AltRank read mid/off-peak versus the March excitement — loud bulls, cooler attention gauges. Interactions and active contributors cooled from February spikes; baseline chatter remains.
On-chain / holder context (panels on idea chart)
Supply equality ratio grinding higher; one-year active supply % drifting down in the valuation strip — language of supply getting stickier. Address-with-balance count trends up long term; whale share and large-ticket flows are quieter after the February volume/fee spike — “network still there, velocity cooled.” Holder panes in the bundle show large-USD balances marked down through the drawdown with some stabilization; whale-address count stepped up in April in one view — concentration story, not a timing trigger.
Bull case
4H ALMA SHORT with Cur Short well above average versus the 3.5-bar norm (screenshot 9 vs 3.5); snapshot family shows the same SHORT jacket on 15m–1H–4H–1D with 3D/1W LONG — fits the script’s buy-the-stretched-short-leg brief. SMC still logs weekly bull FVG context; structure on 4H is inside bull FVG with active fills.
Bear case
Perps show long crowding and mild positive funding; CVD does not confirm urgency. EMA metric mix (4H/1D Above with Cur Long) flags bounce risk if the short leg stalls before adds finish. Stricter 4-bar entry filter reduces noise but does not remove trend risk; 25% per bar sizing magnifies wrong-side bleed. No strategy backtest panel in this bundle — do not invent stats.
Сделка активна
ETHUSDT.P 4H — ALMA Averaging (Long only, min diff 4 entry / 3 exit, 25% / bar, hard stop 10%). Roughly half the accumulated long volume was scaled out on 27 Apr around ~2,368.6 (~+9.3%). Two April 13 entries around ~2,185.2 / ~2,186.1 stay open — mark in the capture about +4% while price digests below the local peak after the ~2,440 tag.
BoaBias / Goldfinch_song
Swing trader · bar-close systematic book
800+ TRADES · WR 60% · AVG HOLD 7D · AVG PNL 7% · MAX DD -3.4%
CRYPTO · STOCKS · INDICES · METALS
📈Sharing Ideas · indicators · strategies with honest stats · Educational only NFA
Swing trader · bar-close systematic book
800+ TRADES · WR 60% · AVG HOLD 7D · AVG PNL 7% · MAX DD -3.4%
CRYPTO · STOCKS · INDICES · METALS
📈Sharing Ideas · indicators · strategies with honest stats · Educational only NFA
Отказ от ответственности
Информация и публикации не предназначены для предоставления и не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или другими видами советов или рекомендаций, предоставленных или одобренных TradingView. Подробнее читайте в Условиях использования.
BoaBias / Goldfinch_song
Swing trader · bar-close systematic book
800+ TRADES · WR 60% · AVG HOLD 7D · AVG PNL 7% · MAX DD -3.4%
CRYPTO · STOCKS · INDICES · METALS
📈Sharing Ideas · indicators · strategies with honest stats · Educational only NFA
Swing trader · bar-close systematic book
800+ TRADES · WR 60% · AVG HOLD 7D · AVG PNL 7% · MAX DD -3.4%
CRYPTO · STOCKS · INDICES · METALS
📈Sharing Ideas · indicators · strategies with honest stats · Educational only NFA
Отказ от ответственности
Информация и публикации не предназначены для предоставления и не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или другими видами советов или рекомендаций, предоставленных или одобренных TradingView. Подробнее читайте в Условиях использования.