📝 Description:
Published: August 16, 2026
Timeframe: H1, M15, M5
Trade Horizon: 2–4 hours (Morning London Session)
🔍 Technical Outlook
EUR/USD closed the week near a key resistance zone. On the H1 chart, the pair remains within a rising channel, but a bearish RSI divergence is clearly visible: price made higher highs, while RSI formed lower highs.
On the M15 timeframe, a Double Top pattern has formed with a peak at 1.1585, increasing the probability of a downside correction before any further upside continuation.
Markets are currently closed, so Monday's opening price and the reaction to the London session start at 10:00 AM MSK (07:00 GMT) will be the main drivers.
Key Levels:
Level Price Zone
Resistance (Sell Zone) 1.1570 – 1.1585
Key Support (Buy Zone) 1.1530 – 1.1540
Critical Level 1.1500
⚔️ Trading Scenarios for Monday (after 10:00 AM MSK)
⚠️ Important: I will not enter at exactly 10:00. I wait 5–15 minutes for the spread to normalize and a clear M5 candle to form.
Scenario A – Bearish (Put) – Probability: 45%
Condition: Price opens or breaks above 1.1585 (false breakout / gap up).
Logic: A fake breakout above the resistance, followed by a reversal due to the bearish divergence.
Entry (Entry): After a bearish reversal candle (pin bar / engulfing) on M5 near 1.1580 – 1.1595.
Target: Gap fill and drop toward 1.1540.
Expiry: 2 hours (until 12:00 MSK).
Scenario B – Bullish (Call) – Probability: 45%
Condition: Price opens or corrects lower into the support zone 1.1530 – 1.1540.
Logic: The pair reaches the lower boundary of the rising channel on H1, where buying interest is expected.
Entry (Entry): After a bullish reversal signal (hammer / engulfing) on M5 from 1.1530–1.1540.
Target: Return to 1.1570, with a potential extension toward 1.1600.
Expiry: 3–4 hours (until 13:00–14:00 MSK).
Scenario C – Flat / Wait – Probability: 10%
Condition: Price opens around Friday's close (1.1567) without clear direction in the first 15 minutes.
Action: Wait for a breakout above 1.1575 (Call) or below 1.1560 (Put), then follow the first strong M5 candle.
⚠️ Risk Management
Entry Time: Never enter at 10:00 sharp. Spreads are widest at the London open. The best entry window is 10:05 – 10:15 MSK.
Position Size: Due to Monday gap risks, risk no more than 1–2% of your total account per trade.
News: No major economic releases are scheduled for Monday, so technical levels will be the main driver.
📌 Bottom Line
EUR/USD is at a critical resistance zone. I will wait for confirmation during the first 15 minutes of the London session. My priority is to trade AGAINST false breakouts of the 1.1585 zone.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading Forex involves high risk. Always manage your risk responsibly.
Published: August 16, 2026
Timeframe: H1, M15, M5
Trade Horizon: 2–4 hours (Morning London Session)
🔍 Technical Outlook
EUR/USD closed the week near a key resistance zone. On the H1 chart, the pair remains within a rising channel, but a bearish RSI divergence is clearly visible: price made higher highs, while RSI formed lower highs.
On the M15 timeframe, a Double Top pattern has formed with a peak at 1.1585, increasing the probability of a downside correction before any further upside continuation.
Markets are currently closed, so Monday's opening price and the reaction to the London session start at 10:00 AM MSK (07:00 GMT) will be the main drivers.
Key Levels:
Level Price Zone
Resistance (Sell Zone) 1.1570 – 1.1585
Key Support (Buy Zone) 1.1530 – 1.1540
Critical Level 1.1500
⚔️ Trading Scenarios for Monday (after 10:00 AM MSK)
⚠️ Important: I will not enter at exactly 10:00. I wait 5–15 minutes for the spread to normalize and a clear M5 candle to form.
Scenario A – Bearish (Put) – Probability: 45%
Condition: Price opens or breaks above 1.1585 (false breakout / gap up).
Logic: A fake breakout above the resistance, followed by a reversal due to the bearish divergence.
Entry (Entry): After a bearish reversal candle (pin bar / engulfing) on M5 near 1.1580 – 1.1595.
Target: Gap fill and drop toward 1.1540.
Expiry: 2 hours (until 12:00 MSK).
Scenario B – Bullish (Call) – Probability: 45%
Condition: Price opens or corrects lower into the support zone 1.1530 – 1.1540.
Logic: The pair reaches the lower boundary of the rising channel on H1, where buying interest is expected.
Entry (Entry): After a bullish reversal signal (hammer / engulfing) on M5 from 1.1530–1.1540.
Target: Return to 1.1570, with a potential extension toward 1.1600.
Expiry: 3–4 hours (until 13:00–14:00 MSK).
Scenario C – Flat / Wait – Probability: 10%
Condition: Price opens around Friday's close (1.1567) without clear direction in the first 15 minutes.
Action: Wait for a breakout above 1.1575 (Call) or below 1.1560 (Put), then follow the first strong M5 candle.
⚠️ Risk Management
Entry Time: Never enter at 10:00 sharp. Spreads are widest at the London open. The best entry window is 10:05 – 10:15 MSK.
Position Size: Due to Monday gap risks, risk no more than 1–2% of your total account per trade.
News: No major economic releases are scheduled for Monday, so technical levels will be the main driver.
📌 Bottom Line
EUR/USD is at a critical resistance zone. I will wait for confirmation during the first 15 minutes of the London session. My priority is to trade AGAINST false breakouts of the 1.1585 zone.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading Forex involves high risk. Always manage your risk responsibly.
Отказ от ответственности
Информация и публикации не предназначены для предоставления и не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или другими видами советов или рекомендаций, предоставленных или одобренных TradingView. Подробнее читайте в Условиях использования.
Отказ от ответственности
Информация и публикации не предназначены для предоставления и не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или другими видами советов или рекомендаций, предоставленных или одобренных TradingView. Подробнее читайте в Условиях использования.