Hello everyone,
From my perspective, GBPUSD on the H4 chart is still maintaining a clear medium-term bullish structure, even though the pair has now entered a “reloading phase” around the 1.3330–1.3360 resistance zone. After a sharp rise from 1.3150, price is consolidating above the 1.3280–1.3300 FVG/demand cluster and the deeper 1.3220–1.3250 area. Ichimoku remains below price, acting as dynamic support for the current trend. Structurally, this is still a post-trend accumulation phase — higher lows are being maintained with no sign of distribution or a decisive breakdown.
On the news side, the landscape continues to favour GBP over USD. US data has been consistently disappointing: ADP showed an unexpected loss of 32,000 private-sector jobs, ISM services barely improved, and core PCE has cooled to 2.8%. These factors keep market expectations for a 25bps Fed cut in December extremely high at around 85–90%, leaving USD under prolonged pressure. In contrast, UK inflation remains around 3.4–3.6%, far above the BoE’s 2% target, while businesses plan further wage and price increases. This makes it difficult for the BoE to turn dovish as quickly as the Fed, giving GBP a short-term advantage.
Combining technicals and fundamentals, I continue to lean bullish on GBPUSD but prefer waiting for a pullback rather than chasing the move. A scenario I favour is a retracement toward the 1.3280–1.3300 demand/FVG area — or even deeper into 1.3220–1.3250 — should the DXY see a technical rebound before the Fed meeting. At these zones, any clear bullish signal such as a pin bar, bullish engulfing, or notable volume improvement could send GBPUSD back to retest 1.3360 and extend toward 1.3450–1.3500 if the Fed confirms the expected rate cut.
What do you think about this scenario — is waiting for a pullback the smarter strategy at this moment?
From my perspective, GBPUSD on the H4 chart is still maintaining a clear medium-term bullish structure, even though the pair has now entered a “reloading phase” around the 1.3330–1.3360 resistance zone. After a sharp rise from 1.3150, price is consolidating above the 1.3280–1.3300 FVG/demand cluster and the deeper 1.3220–1.3250 area. Ichimoku remains below price, acting as dynamic support for the current trend. Structurally, this is still a post-trend accumulation phase — higher lows are being maintained with no sign of distribution or a decisive breakdown.
On the news side, the landscape continues to favour GBP over USD. US data has been consistently disappointing: ADP showed an unexpected loss of 32,000 private-sector jobs, ISM services barely improved, and core PCE has cooled to 2.8%. These factors keep market expectations for a 25bps Fed cut in December extremely high at around 85–90%, leaving USD under prolonged pressure. In contrast, UK inflation remains around 3.4–3.6%, far above the BoE’s 2% target, while businesses plan further wage and price increases. This makes it difficult for the BoE to turn dovish as quickly as the Fed, giving GBP a short-term advantage.
Combining technicals and fundamentals, I continue to lean bullish on GBPUSD but prefer waiting for a pullback rather than chasing the move. A scenario I favour is a retracement toward the 1.3280–1.3300 demand/FVG area — or even deeper into 1.3220–1.3250 — should the DXY see a technical rebound before the Fed meeting. At these zones, any clear bullish signal such as a pin bar, bullish engulfing, or notable volume improvement could send GBPUSD back to retest 1.3360 and extend toward 1.3450–1.3500 if the Fed confirms the expected rate cut.
What do you think about this scenario — is waiting for a pullback the smarter strategy at this moment?
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Похожие публикации
Отказ от ответственности
Информация и публикации не предназначены для предоставления и не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или другими видами советов или рекомендаций, предоставленных или одобренных TradingView. Подробнее читайте в Условиях использования.