My medium-term outlook on GBP/USD remains bearish, although I’m not looking to enter short aggressively at current prices.
Non-Commercial traders remain heavily net short GBP at -57.8K contracts, while positioning on the USD Index remains net long at +22.5K contracts. Although GBP shorts have recently been partially reduced, the overall positioning still favors a stronger USD relative to the Pound.
Seasonality also supports the bearish scenario
Historically, August tends to be a weak month for GBP/USD.
Average August performance shows:
20Y: -1.50%
15Y: -2.09%
10Y: -0.46%
5Y: -0.60%
This doesn't provide an entry signal by itself, but it adds another important confluence to the bearish medium-term outlook.
Currently, around 72% of retail traders are SHORT GBP/USD, while only 28% are long.
With positioning this unbalanced, I see the possibility of one final move higher or a short squeeze before the market potentially develops the larger bearish move.
Technical Scenario
From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is approaching an important higher-timeframe resistance area.
The main zone I'm monitoring is:
🎯 1.3550 – 1.3640
A move into this area could allow the market to take liquidity above recent highs, squeeze existing short positions and test the major supply zone.
If price reaches this area, I'll be looking for clear bearish confirmation on M15/H1, ideally a rejection followed by a CHOCH/BOS and retest, before considering a short position.
If the bearish scenario is confirmed, my main downside levels are:
1.3432 → 1.3365 → 1.3275 → 1.3225
On the other hand, a strong breakout and Daily close above 1.3640–1.3660 would make me reconsider the bearish thesis.
Non-Commercial traders remain heavily net short GBP at -57.8K contracts, while positioning on the USD Index remains net long at +22.5K contracts. Although GBP shorts have recently been partially reduced, the overall positioning still favors a stronger USD relative to the Pound.
Seasonality also supports the bearish scenario
Historically, August tends to be a weak month for GBP/USD.
Average August performance shows:
20Y: -1.50%
15Y: -2.09%
10Y: -0.46%
5Y: -0.60%
This doesn't provide an entry signal by itself, but it adds another important confluence to the bearish medium-term outlook.
Currently, around 72% of retail traders are SHORT GBP/USD, while only 28% are long.
With positioning this unbalanced, I see the possibility of one final move higher or a short squeeze before the market potentially develops the larger bearish move.
Technical Scenario
From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is approaching an important higher-timeframe resistance area.
The main zone I'm monitoring is:
🎯 1.3550 – 1.3640
A move into this area could allow the market to take liquidity above recent highs, squeeze existing short positions and test the major supply zone.
If price reaches this area, I'll be looking for clear bearish confirmation on M15/H1, ideally a rejection followed by a CHOCH/BOS and retest, before considering a short position.
If the bearish scenario is confirmed, my main downside levels are:
1.3432 → 1.3365 → 1.3275 → 1.3225
On the other hand, a strong breakout and Daily close above 1.3640–1.3660 would make me reconsider the bearish thesis.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
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Информация и публикации не предназначены для предоставления и не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или другими видами советов или рекомендаций, предоставленных или одобренных TradingView. Подробнее читайте в Условиях использования.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Отказ от ответственности
Информация и публикации не предназначены для предоставления и не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или другими видами советов или рекомендаций, предоставленных или одобренных TradingView. Подробнее читайте в Условиях использования.