THE FRAME
The week closed at 24,842.1. Below July's point of control, below the first standard deviation of the monthly VWAP, bottom third of the value area.
Volume for all of this comes from the FDAX contract, not from CFD tick counts, and gets mapped onto the price of the chart it is drawn on.
Value area high 25,225.6 Point of control 25,035.4 Value area low 24,698.9 Monthly VWAP 25,176.2 VWAP -1 sigma 24,853.4 Friday's close 24,842.1
WHERE THINGS STACK
Four references sit overhead inside 50.2 points:
25,126.0 gamma flip (7-45 DTE structure map) 25,150.5 Wednesday high 25,168.1 Monday high 25,176.2 monthly VWAP
An options-positioning model, two weekday highs and a volume-weighted average. None of the three knows the other two exist. This week they land on the same band anyway.
Downside has stations, not a void:
24,698.9 value area low 24,530.6 VWAP -2 sigma 24,500.0 put wall 24,207.8 VWAP -3 sigma
The put wall and the -2 sigma band are 30.6 points apart. Two methods, one shelf.
WHAT THE FRAME IMPLIES
Price sits under all of it, and the gamma model reads short gamma — moves get amplified instead of dampened. So the frame points down. The point of control at 25,035.4 is the first thing any bounce has to get through; going the other way, 24,698.9 comes first and 24,530.6 sits behind it.
One-day expected move is 242 points. That is the scale for a single session.
WHAT INVALIDATES IT
A daily close above 25,176.2. Above the whole band, not just into it. That puts price back inside value, flips the gamma reading, and everything above becomes history. It gets updated here when it happens.
And if neither 24,698.9 nor 25,176.2 is reached by Thursday, the reading was not wrong. It was useless. That verdict gets posted too.
THE LIMITS
The hit rate of a confluence like this has never been measured here, so nothing above is a probability statement.
In own backtesting the gamma flip sits above spot on roughly 85% of days, which means being below it carries almost no information by itself. It only counts here because three unrelated references agree with it.
And when these gamma levels were tested as magnets, the correlation came out at 0.21 or lower. Shelves, not walls.
The week closed at 24,842.1. Below July's point of control, below the first standard deviation of the monthly VWAP, bottom third of the value area.
Volume for all of this comes from the FDAX contract, not from CFD tick counts, and gets mapped onto the price of the chart it is drawn on.
Value area high 25,225.6 Point of control 25,035.4 Value area low 24,698.9 Monthly VWAP 25,176.2 VWAP -1 sigma 24,853.4 Friday's close 24,842.1
WHERE THINGS STACK
Four references sit overhead inside 50.2 points:
25,126.0 gamma flip (7-45 DTE structure map) 25,150.5 Wednesday high 25,168.1 Monday high 25,176.2 monthly VWAP
An options-positioning model, two weekday highs and a volume-weighted average. None of the three knows the other two exist. This week they land on the same band anyway.
Downside has stations, not a void:
24,698.9 value area low 24,530.6 VWAP -2 sigma 24,500.0 put wall 24,207.8 VWAP -3 sigma
The put wall and the -2 sigma band are 30.6 points apart. Two methods, one shelf.
WHAT THE FRAME IMPLIES
Price sits under all of it, and the gamma model reads short gamma — moves get amplified instead of dampened. So the frame points down. The point of control at 25,035.4 is the first thing any bounce has to get through; going the other way, 24,698.9 comes first and 24,530.6 sits behind it.
One-day expected move is 242 points. That is the scale for a single session.
WHAT INVALIDATES IT
A daily close above 25,176.2. Above the whole band, not just into it. That puts price back inside value, flips the gamma reading, and everything above becomes history. It gets updated here when it happens.
And if neither 24,698.9 nor 25,176.2 is reached by Thursday, the reading was not wrong. It was useless. That verdict gets posted too.
THE LIMITS
The hit rate of a confluence like this has never been measured here, so nothing above is a probability statement.
In own backtesting the gamma flip sits above spot on roughly 85% of days, which means being below it carries almost no information by itself. It only counts here because three unrelated references agree with it.
And when these gamma levels were tested as magnets, the correlation came out at 0.21 or lower. Shelves, not walls.
Отказ от ответственности
Информация и публикации не предназначены для предоставления и не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или другими видами советов или рекомендаций, предоставленных или одобренных TradingView. Подробнее читайте в Условиях использования.
Отказ от ответственности
Информация и публикации не предназначены для предоставления и не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или другими видами советов или рекомендаций, предоставленных или одобренных TradingView. Подробнее читайте в Условиях использования.