Price has continued to respect the 25,000 level as resistance.
From a structural standpoint, this keeps the short-term bias bearish while we remain below it.
Current Technical Picture
Clear rejection at 25K
Lower highs forming on the 1H
Compression beneath prior breakdown level
Descending structure still intact
As long as price trades below 25,000, rallies should be treated as potential lower highs rather than confirmed reversals.
Downside Scenarios
If the current consolidation resolves lower, the 24,300 level becomes a reasonable technical objective based on prior reactions and measured structure.
Below that sits the November 2025 low, which represents a higher-timeframe liquidity area. A test of that level would likely require continued momentum and broader participation.
Invalidation
A sustained reclaim and acceptance above 25K would shift the short-term bias back to bullish and open the door toward 25,400–25,500.
Not a wick above.
Not a quick pop.
Acceptance and structure shift.
Summary
25,000 is the decision point.
Below = sellers remain in control.
Above = potential shift in tone.
I don’t love leaning bearish equities, but bias follows structure — not preference.
Watching reactions closely around NY open for participation and confirmation.
From a structural standpoint, this keeps the short-term bias bearish while we remain below it.
Current Technical Picture
Clear rejection at 25K
Lower highs forming on the 1H
Compression beneath prior breakdown level
Descending structure still intact
As long as price trades below 25,000, rallies should be treated as potential lower highs rather than confirmed reversals.
Downside Scenarios
If the current consolidation resolves lower, the 24,300 level becomes a reasonable technical objective based on prior reactions and measured structure.
Below that sits the November 2025 low, which represents a higher-timeframe liquidity area. A test of that level would likely require continued momentum and broader participation.
Invalidation
A sustained reclaim and acceptance above 25K would shift the short-term bias back to bullish and open the door toward 25,400–25,500.
Not a wick above.
Not a quick pop.
Acceptance and structure shift.
Summary
25,000 is the decision point.
Below = sellers remain in control.
Above = potential shift in tone.
I don’t love leaning bearish equities, but bias follows structure — not preference.
Watching reactions closely around NY open for participation and confirmation.
Заметка
MNQ Update: 25K Still Controlling Price
Since the last analysis, price made a modest push lower but failed to produce meaningful follow-through toward the 24,300 objective.
Momentum stalled.
We then saw a brief move above 25,000, but there was no sustained acceptance. Price quickly rotated back below the level and is now testing 25K from underneath again.
That matters.
Current Structure
Small downside extension with no continuation
Failed reclaim of 25K
Rejection back into the descending structure
Now pressing into 25K from below
This keeps 25,000 as the primary decision level.
What This Means
A failed breakout above 25K followed by a breakdown back below often signals that supply is still active in that region.
If price continues to reject here, the path toward 24,700 and potentially 24,300 remains technically valid.
However, if buyers can reclaim 25K and hold above it with structure shifting into higher highs and higher lows, the short-term bearish bias weakens significantly.
Line in the Sand (Still)
Below 25,000 → Bearish pressure intact
Sustained hold above 25,000 → Bias shifts bullish
No change in framework.
We’re simply watching how price behaves at the level.
Structure first. Opinions second.
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NASDAQ session structure & execution
🐂 The Bullpen → natronfx.com
🐂 The Bullpen → natronfx.com
Похожие публикации
Отказ от ответственности
Информация и публикации не предназначены для предоставления и не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или другими видами советов или рекомендаций, предоставленных или одобренных TradingView. Подробнее читайте в Условиях использования.