How deep is the technological rabbit hole?
The US technology market is led by the Nasdaq index.
It contains all 7 major US stocks that account for the largest weight of the
NASDAQ and 
SPX index: MSFT , META, GOOG, AMZN, TSLA, NVDA - these stocks have a significant impact on the index itself. And judging by the latest news, their affairs are getting worse...
Were there fundamental reasons for growth in past years?
Yes, many large companies have significantly reduced costs thanks to AI, but investments in this area have also increased.
Ai is the stock's main growth driver, but investor confidence in the outlook is starting to slow and analyst forecasts are starting to deteriorate.
At the same time, there are more and more layoffs in the United States related to the introduction of AI in junior positions in companies across the country. And due to rising oil prices, the situation could get much worse because consumer confidence is at its lowest level since 2008.
But according to technical analysis, everything is optimistic
In terms of technology, we are still in a long-term growing trend that began in 2023.
From the maximum, Nasdaq fell by only -11%; now we cannot talk about a “bear market” in this index, but we are probably at the very beginning.
The nearest support zone on the daily time frame is 22600p.
We will probably fall to these levels this week, but what next?
Growth until the end of spring!?
It is likely that in April-May we will see a good short squeeze and there are enough reasons for this:
1) According to the index of fear and greed, we are now at 14/100 (extreme fear), almost always such moments mean a short-term (!) bottom.
2) Shorts are actively increasing in the markets due to the war in Iran and the market is pricing in a long period of war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Any positivity will cause a wave of growth, and closed shorts will become additional fuel.
3) RSi is oversold at
lower timeframes: 1 hour (47); 4 hours (39); 1 day (36) - so there are a couple of days left for the short-term fall.
On higher timeframes the price is neutral 1 week (38);
1 month (61), 3 months (71!) - therefore, the medium-term potential for a fall in the main US index is still present.
I think that a new round of decline will occur in June-October, then there will be a final wave of decline, which should be used for long-term purchases.
Friends, the situation can change a lot any day, so in case of any changes, I will update this forecast on my social networks.
I will report my major purchases there too.
Be especially careful in the market this year, the bear market is unforgiving.
The US technology market is led by the Nasdaq index.
It contains all 7 major US stocks that account for the largest weight of the
NASDAQ and SPX index: MSFT , META, GOOG, AMZN, TSLA, NVDA - these stocks have a significant impact on the index itself. And judging by the latest news, their affairs are getting worse...Were there fundamental reasons for growth in past years?
Yes, many large companies have significantly reduced costs thanks to AI, but investments in this area have also increased.
Ai is the stock's main growth driver, but investor confidence in the outlook is starting to slow and analyst forecasts are starting to deteriorate.
At the same time, there are more and more layoffs in the United States related to the introduction of AI in junior positions in companies across the country. And due to rising oil prices, the situation could get much worse because consumer confidence is at its lowest level since 2008.
But according to technical analysis, everything is optimistic
In terms of technology, we are still in a long-term growing trend that began in 2023.
From the maximum, Nasdaq fell by only -11%; now we cannot talk about a “bear market” in this index, but we are probably at the very beginning.
The nearest support zone on the daily time frame is 22600p.
We will probably fall to these levels this week, but what next?
Growth until the end of spring!?
It is likely that in April-May we will see a good short squeeze and there are enough reasons for this:
1) According to the index of fear and greed, we are now at 14/100 (extreme fear), almost always such moments mean a short-term (!) bottom.
2) Shorts are actively increasing in the markets due to the war in Iran and the market is pricing in a long period of war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Any positivity will cause a wave of growth, and closed shorts will become additional fuel.
3) RSi is oversold at
lower timeframes: 1 hour (47); 4 hours (39); 1 day (36) - so there are a couple of days left for the short-term fall.
On higher timeframes the price is neutral 1 week (38);
1 month (61), 3 months (71!) - therefore, the medium-term potential for a fall in the main US index is still present.
I think that a new round of decline will occur in June-October, then there will be a final wave of decline, which should be used for long-term purchases.
Friends, the situation can change a lot any day, so in case of any changes, I will update this forecast on my social networks.
I will report my major purchases there too.
Be especially careful in the market this year, the bear market is unforgiving.
Сделка активна
Good, Nasdaq! Growth targets have been reached and the index the upper boundary of its channel!On the monthly timeframe, RSI is in severe overbought territory (73), so a fall is more likely in the coming months.
All technical indicators on the free website riskprofi dot com are warning that a fall will soon begin.
The leading US technology index will likely fall until the end of August, and the levels for closing shorts, in my opinion, remain as i previously outlined in the idea of 21,000-23,000 points.
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Gift for beginners up to 1000 USDT
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👀 Ideas are good but a trading strategy that will grow your capital is more important. Trading and investing education: t.me/+WGf58Wagg-Y3MTQy
📊 I trade on BingX: bingx.com/invite/XLQBBK
Gift for beginners up to 1000 USDT
📊 I trade on BingX: bingx.com/invite/XLQBBK
Gift for beginners up to 1000 USDT
Похожие публикации
Отказ от ответственности
Информация и публикации не предназначены для предоставления и не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или другими видами советов или рекомендаций, предоставленных или одобренных TradingView. Подробнее читайте в Условиях использования.