This trade — execution frame
ALMA Averaging Strategy (long-only on the attached instance) scales in while ALMA phase stays SHORT and Cur Short minus Avg Short clears the entry min diff — screenshot gate: 6 bars. Pyramiding: 25% per qualifying bar. Exits follow ALMA LONG plus min diff on the long leg — not manual green boxes from older winners on the chart. Hard stop: 10% below working average when enabled.
Tape read
ONDOUSDT, 4H: spot ~0.370 after the correction from the ~0.44–0.45 double-top shelf. Three ALMA Long Add legs in the capture cluster ~28–29 May in the 0.361–0.367 band — scaling into the flush, not a breakout chase. An earlier long on the same chart (~0.34 → ~0.42) is closed history on the tester list, not the open book.
ALMA board (~0.3605, 28.05)
15m SHORT (S=3); 1H LONG (L=2); 4H SHORT S=13 vs SAvg ~3.2 — diff ~9.8 bars, clears the 6-bar gate; 1D/3D SHORT; 1W LONG L=6. Live adds print into 4H short-phase while 1W still wears a long-phase jacket on the formal tile.
EMA / session grid (d94a10 Metric, ~0.36 print, 28.05)
15m through 4H and 1W: Below. Dev% outliers: 1H ~+4.8%, 4H ~+12.3%, 1W ~+44.5% under the slow stack — full compression under mean on the execution clocks, with 3D the lone Above tag (~−6.7% Dev, price still pressed vs the May highs). 1H Cur Short 51 vs Avg ~7.3 (~7×) — extreme short-session crowding on the hourly row. 4H Cur Short 12 vs ~6.5; 1W Cur Short 36 vs ~13.6. Log same week: fractal low broken; new bear FVG — volatility around structure, not a clean trend handoff.
Footprint (4H)
Waterfall leg printed aggressive sell delta (including a ~−11M cluster bar); the stabilization shelf flipped to positive delta on the last prints (~+1.13M on ~15M total on the live bar, prior bar nearly flat ~−37K) — sellers spent fuel, buyers defending the pocket, not proof of trend reversal. Fork: micro absorption at the shelf while 4H ALMA phase still reads SHORT.
VWAP / volume profile (4H)
Visible-range macro profile: P-shape — HVN stacked at the 0.44–0.45 origin, thin LVN through the May dump; local b-shape (and short d-balance) at 0.35–0.37 where ALMA adds cluster. Session POC ~0.438–0.440 overhead: spot ~0.37 sits ~15% under fair — deep discount, not acceptance back inside value. Horizontal volume: climax into the 0.35 low, then thicker trade on the hold bars without range expansion. Chart-TF support VWAP ~0.368–0.371 (multiple touch dots on the strip); red HTF ribbons stair above — ~0.41 / ~0.415, weekly (widest) near the POC cluster ~0.438 caps any relief leg. 4H reaction stats: FE P(swing) ~61%, FE P(opp) ~70% on support — lines tend to matter and often reach the opposite side; K/M br on support ~61% — react, then break often enough to respect invalidation. Forecast: hold support VWAP + b-node → mean reversion toward 0.41 then POC 0.438; lose 0.36 through the shelf → unwind toward 0.34–0.35 liquidity. ALMA pyramids only earn the bounce if price starts closing back through the nearby 0.372–0.375 SMC friction, not on the first green delta bar alone.
SMC — timeline
4H (~0.3612, 28.05): inside OB Bull (normal) and FVG Bull on the same bar — bid-side inefficiency at the add zone. Last-10 ladder: FVG Enter Bull / OB Enter Bull steps at ~0.3606 → ~0.3618 with a bear FVG raid at ~0.3589 on 28.05 — two-way housekeeping into the low, not a clean one-way bid.
Trend — 1D
Regime: May impulse from ~0.33 toward ~0.52, then corrective flag — price broke the green ascending support ~0.38–0.39 and now tests the lower cyan channel rail near ~0.36–0.37. Hold the rail → relief toward 0.41–0.43 congestion; sustained acceptance below ~0.35 re-opens the spring toward the 0.33–0.34 base. Geometry only — ALMA exits rule the script.
Trend — 1W
Macro: multi-month downtrend from the ~2.20 history print, but a sharp weekly bounce off the ~0.245 floor with rising volume on the green candle — potential higher-low attempt. Overhead: solid red descending trendline from major peaks — reclaim needs more than a 4H shelf hold.
Derivatives — skew
Funding slightly negative (~−0.014%); OI ~93M off the May peak with a recent long-liquidation flush on the histogram. Accounts ~77% long with L/S ratio ~3.4 — crowded long book into the bounce, not contrarian short fuel like SKY. Net longs ~34M vs shorts ~5M; CVD ~−2.7M on the edge — aggressive sell flow recently, fits the dump, weak lift confirmation until CVD turns. Squeeze risk if price reclaims 0.41 fast; trap risk if 0.36 fails with longs still stuffed.
On-chain (1D bundle)
New funded addresses and active addresses spiked around the early-May breakout (prints ~379 new / ~1.86K active); USD transaction volume clusters 11–13 and 21–22 May — network woke up with volatility, not a quiet accumulation drift. TVL ~1.4B reads flat — liquidity shell stable, adoption burst is activity, not TVL expansion by itself.
Backtest honesty (ALMA Avg on attached ONDO strip in the capture)
~106 trades, ~77% win rate, average win ~+8.2% vs average loss ~−9.4% on the ROI histogram — win rate high, losers slightly fatter than winners. Max drawdown quoted ~0.12% on the panel with headline return on capital ~0.17%. do not treat the win rate as a promise on this live ladder. Forward book can diverge from any tester snapshot.
Positive factors
- ALMA 4H: S=13 vs SAvg ~3.2 (diff ~9.8 > min 6); entry gate satisfied; counter-short-add template
- EMA: 1H Cur Short 51 vs ~7.3 — extreme short crowding; 4H Dev ~+12%, 1W ~+44% below mean after dump
- Footprint: sell climax then +1.13M delta on shelf bar; absorption at 0.36–0.37
- VP/VWAP: b-shape at lows; support VWAP ~0.368–0.371 holds; FE P(opp) ~70% on 4H support
- SMC: 4H bull OB + FVG at add zone; FVG Enter Bull ladder 0.3606–0.3618
- Trend 1W: bounce off ~0.245 macro floor; 1D channel lower rail test
- On-chain: May activity spikes vs quiet April — vol window, not dead chain
- Backtest context: ~77% win; avg win ~8.2% vs loss ~9.4% (not a live promise)
Negative factors
- Price ~15% under POC 0.438; weekly VWAP ribbon at fair — ceiling on relief
- SMC 1D: bear FVG ladder from ~0.426 — overhead not cleared
- Trend 1D: lost green ascending support ~0.38–0.39 — tactical bounce inside correction
- Derivatives: ~77% accounts long; CVD negative — crowded longs, weak aggressive lift
- ALMA 4H phase still SHORT while adds print — label lag / fork
- VP stats: K/M br ~61% on support — break bias after touch
- Immediate friction ~0.372–0.375 on SMC / prior breakdown zone
- Risk: hard stop 10% caps nominal loss, not gap on perps
ALMA Averaging Strategy (long-only on the attached instance) scales in while ALMA phase stays SHORT and Cur Short minus Avg Short clears the entry min diff — screenshot gate: 6 bars. Pyramiding: 25% per qualifying bar. Exits follow ALMA LONG plus min diff on the long leg — not manual green boxes from older winners on the chart. Hard stop: 10% below working average when enabled.
Tape read
ONDOUSDT, 4H: spot ~0.370 after the correction from the ~0.44–0.45 double-top shelf. Three ALMA Long Add legs in the capture cluster ~28–29 May in the 0.361–0.367 band — scaling into the flush, not a breakout chase. An earlier long on the same chart (~0.34 → ~0.42) is closed history on the tester list, not the open book.ALMA board (~0.3605, 28.05)
15m SHORT (S=3); 1H LONG (L=2); 4H SHORT S=13 vs SAvg ~3.2 — diff ~9.8 bars, clears the 6-bar gate; 1D/3D SHORT; 1W LONG L=6. Live adds print into 4H short-phase while 1W still wears a long-phase jacket on the formal tile.
EMA / session grid (d94a10 Metric, ~0.36 print, 28.05)
15m through 4H and 1W: Below. Dev% outliers: 1H ~+4.8%, 4H ~+12.3%, 1W ~+44.5% under the slow stack — full compression under mean on the execution clocks, with 3D the lone Above tag (~−6.7% Dev, price still pressed vs the May highs). 1H Cur Short 51 vs Avg ~7.3 (~7×) — extreme short-session crowding on the hourly row. 4H Cur Short 12 vs ~6.5; 1W Cur Short 36 vs ~13.6. Log same week: fractal low broken; new bear FVG — volatility around structure, not a clean trend handoff.
Footprint (4H)
Waterfall leg printed aggressive sell delta (including a ~−11M cluster bar); the stabilization shelf flipped to positive delta on the last prints (~+1.13M on ~15M total on the live bar, prior bar nearly flat ~−37K) — sellers spent fuel, buyers defending the pocket, not proof of trend reversal. Fork: micro absorption at the shelf while 4H ALMA phase still reads SHORT.
VWAP / volume profile (4H)
Visible-range macro profile: P-shape — HVN stacked at the 0.44–0.45 origin, thin LVN through the May dump; local b-shape (and short d-balance) at 0.35–0.37 where ALMA adds cluster. Session POC ~0.438–0.440 overhead: spot ~0.37 sits ~15% under fair — deep discount, not acceptance back inside value. Horizontal volume: climax into the 0.35 low, then thicker trade on the hold bars without range expansion. Chart-TF support VWAP ~0.368–0.371 (multiple touch dots on the strip); red HTF ribbons stair above — ~0.41 / ~0.415, weekly (widest) near the POC cluster ~0.438 caps any relief leg. 4H reaction stats: FE P(swing) ~61%, FE P(opp) ~70% on support — lines tend to matter and often reach the opposite side; K/M br on support ~61% — react, then break often enough to respect invalidation. Forecast: hold support VWAP + b-node → mean reversion toward 0.41 then POC 0.438; lose 0.36 through the shelf → unwind toward 0.34–0.35 liquidity. ALMA pyramids only earn the bounce if price starts closing back through the nearby 0.372–0.375 SMC friction, not on the first green delta bar alone.
SMC — timeline
4H (~0.3612, 28.05): inside OB Bull (normal) and FVG Bull on the same bar — bid-side inefficiency at the add zone. Last-10 ladder: FVG Enter Bull / OB Enter Bull steps at ~0.3606 → ~0.3618 with a bear FVG raid at ~0.3589 on 28.05 — two-way housekeeping into the low, not a clean one-way bid.
Trend — 1D
Regime: May impulse from ~0.33 toward ~0.52, then corrective flag — price broke the green ascending support ~0.38–0.39 and now tests the lower cyan channel rail near ~0.36–0.37. Hold the rail → relief toward 0.41–0.43 congestion; sustained acceptance below ~0.35 re-opens the spring toward the 0.33–0.34 base. Geometry only — ALMA exits rule the script.
Trend — 1W
Macro: multi-month downtrend from the ~2.20 history print, but a sharp weekly bounce off the ~0.245 floor with rising volume on the green candle — potential higher-low attempt. Overhead: solid red descending trendline from major peaks — reclaim needs more than a 4H shelf hold.
Derivatives — skew
Funding slightly negative (~−0.014%); OI ~93M off the May peak with a recent long-liquidation flush on the histogram. Accounts ~77% long with L/S ratio ~3.4 — crowded long book into the bounce, not contrarian short fuel like SKY. Net longs ~34M vs shorts ~5M; CVD ~−2.7M on the edge — aggressive sell flow recently, fits the dump, weak lift confirmation until CVD turns. Squeeze risk if price reclaims 0.41 fast; trap risk if 0.36 fails with longs still stuffed.
On-chain (1D bundle)
New funded addresses and active addresses spiked around the early-May breakout (prints ~379 new / ~1.86K active); USD transaction volume clusters 11–13 and 21–22 May — network woke up with volatility, not a quiet accumulation drift. TVL ~1.4B reads flat — liquidity shell stable, adoption burst is activity, not TVL expansion by itself.
Backtest honesty (ALMA Avg on attached ONDO strip in the capture)
~106 trades, ~77% win rate, average win ~+8.2% vs average loss ~−9.4% on the ROI histogram — win rate high, losers slightly fatter than winners. Max drawdown quoted ~0.12% on the panel with headline return on capital ~0.17%. do not treat the win rate as a promise on this live ladder. Forward book can diverge from any tester snapshot.
Positive factors
- ALMA 4H: S=13 vs SAvg ~3.2 (diff ~9.8 > min 6); entry gate satisfied; counter-short-add template
- EMA: 1H Cur Short 51 vs ~7.3 — extreme short crowding; 4H Dev ~+12%, 1W ~+44% below mean after dump
- Footprint: sell climax then +1.13M delta on shelf bar; absorption at 0.36–0.37
- VP/VWAP: b-shape at lows; support VWAP ~0.368–0.371 holds; FE P(opp) ~70% on 4H support
- SMC: 4H bull OB + FVG at add zone; FVG Enter Bull ladder 0.3606–0.3618
- Trend 1W: bounce off ~0.245 macro floor; 1D channel lower rail test
- On-chain: May activity spikes vs quiet April — vol window, not dead chain
- Backtest context: ~77% win; avg win ~8.2% vs loss ~9.4% (not a live promise)
Negative factors
- Price ~15% under POC 0.438; weekly VWAP ribbon at fair — ceiling on relief
- SMC 1D: bear FVG ladder from ~0.426 — overhead not cleared
- Trend 1D: lost green ascending support ~0.38–0.39 — tactical bounce inside correction
- Derivatives: ~77% accounts long; CVD negative — crowded longs, weak aggressive lift
- ALMA 4H phase still SHORT while adds print — label lag / fork
- VP stats: K/M br ~61% on support — break bias after touch
- Immediate friction ~0.372–0.375 on SMC / prior breakdown zone
- Risk: hard stop 10% caps nominal loss, not gap on perps
BoaBias / Goldfinch_song
Swing trader · bar-close systematic book
800+ TRADES · WR 60% · AVG HOLD 7D · AVG PNL 7% · MAX DD -3.4%
CRYPTO · STOCKS · INDICES · METALS
📈Sharing Ideas · indicators · strategies with honest stats · Educational only NFA
Swing trader · bar-close systematic book
800+ TRADES · WR 60% · AVG HOLD 7D · AVG PNL 7% · MAX DD -3.4%
CRYPTO · STOCKS · INDICES · METALS
📈Sharing Ideas · indicators · strategies with honest stats · Educational only NFA
Отказ от ответственности
Информация и публикации не предназначены для предоставления и не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или другими видами советов или рекомендаций, предоставленных или одобренных TradingView. Подробнее читайте в Условиях использования.
BoaBias / Goldfinch_song
Swing trader · bar-close systematic book
800+ TRADES · WR 60% · AVG HOLD 7D · AVG PNL 7% · MAX DD -3.4%
CRYPTO · STOCKS · INDICES · METALS
📈Sharing Ideas · indicators · strategies with honest stats · Educational only NFA
Swing trader · bar-close systematic book
800+ TRADES · WR 60% · AVG HOLD 7D · AVG PNL 7% · MAX DD -3.4%
CRYPTO · STOCKS · INDICES · METALS
📈Sharing Ideas · indicators · strategies with honest stats · Educational only NFA
Отказ от ответственности
Информация и публикации не предназначены для предоставления и не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или другими видами советов или рекомендаций, предоставленных или одобренных TradingView. Подробнее читайте в Условиях использования.