Thesis
SPY continues to trade in a mature but intact bullish cycle, pushing to new all-time highs despite a heavy macro and event-driven calendar.
Context
- Weekly timeframe
- CPI, PPI, Jobless Claims ahead
- Start of key earnings season
- Supreme Court ruling delayed into next week, adding uncertainty
What I see
- Market printed another ATH and closed the week at the highs
- Price remains well above rising trend support
- No visible distribution or topping structure yet
- Momentum remains strong despite known macro risks
What matters now
- As long as price holds above the rising channel, the trend remains bullish
- Last CPI print came in much cooler than expected
- A second consecutive soft CPI would confirm a disinflation trend and likely fuel further upside
- Market is clearly not pricing near-term stress
Buy / Accumulation zone
- This is not an area for aggressive new buying
- Focus shifts from adding risk to managing and cleaning the portfolio
- Selectively trimming positions that fully rode the last 5–6 years of the cycle
Targets
- Trend-following extension remains open toward higher Fib projections
- No confirmed cycle top yet
Risk / Invalidation
- A sustained loss of the rising channel would signal the need to reduce exposure
- Until then, price action favors holding, not anticipating a top
SPY continues to trade in a mature but intact bullish cycle, pushing to new all-time highs despite a heavy macro and event-driven calendar.Context
- Weekly timeframe
- CPI, PPI, Jobless Claims ahead
- Start of key earnings season
- Supreme Court ruling delayed into next week, adding uncertainty
What I see
- Market printed another ATH and closed the week at the highs
- Price remains well above rising trend support
- No visible distribution or topping structure yet
- Momentum remains strong despite known macro risks
What matters now
- As long as price holds above the rising channel, the trend remains bullish
- Last CPI print came in much cooler than expected
- A second consecutive soft CPI would confirm a disinflation trend and likely fuel further upside
- Market is clearly not pricing near-term stress
Buy / Accumulation zone
- This is not an area for aggressive new buying
- Focus shifts from adding risk to managing and cleaning the portfolio
- Selectively trimming positions that fully rode the last 5–6 years of the cycle
Targets
- Trend-following extension remains open toward higher Fib projections
- No confirmed cycle top yet
Risk / Invalidation
- A sustained loss of the rising channel would signal the need to reduce exposure
- Until then, price action favors holding, not anticipating a top
Отказ от ответственности
Информация и публикации не предназначены для предоставления и не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или другими видами советов или рекомендаций, предоставленных или одобренных TradingView. Подробнее читайте в Условиях использования.
Отказ от ответственности
Информация и публикации не предназначены для предоставления и не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или другими видами советов или рекомендаций, предоставленных или одобренных TradingView. Подробнее читайте в Условиях использования.