Crude oil risks remain tilted higher

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Iran's finance minister today warned that American bases in the Gulf are legitimate targets, should there be any aggression by the US. Abbas Araghchi has also said there are 'no tangible progress' in talks. Given the uncertainty surrounding supply routes and the absence of meaningful diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran, traders might reasonably have expected crude prices to move materially higher by now.

Fundamentals also point towards a tightening market. Recent inventory data suggest global stockpiles have been steadily declining, and even a swift resolution to current shipping concerns would not necessarily prevent inventories from tightening further.. That leaves the balance of risks tilted towards higher oil prices, barring a quick end to the stalemate in the next few days.

by Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com

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