Why I think the debate may not be about Q3 strength, but about whether the market is looking one year too early.
Two things stand out from the earnings calls:
THG sensitivity is large
Management stated:
“If the GHG quota price increases by Euro 100, this can have an effect on our EBITDA on an annual basis of 40 to 80 million Euro.”
At the low end alone: THG: €200 → €450/t
= +€250/t move
Potential annual EBITDA impact: +€100M
That is using management’s own most conservative sensitivity.
The full reset may not yet be in the numbers
Management explained:
“The contracts are negotiated between October, November, December.”
And regarding 2025 contracts:
“CO₂ prices came down below a hundred... we had to negotiate the contracts for 2025.”
“I can tell you our CO₂ prices for the 2025 contracts were even lower.”
This matters.
Q1–Q2 FY25/26 likely still reflected contracts negotiated during a weak quota environment.
Meaning the company may not have captured the full THG repricing across its book.
Yet Q3 EBITDA still reached: €60.2M
And management raised expectations toward the upper end of guidance.
The question I’m asking:
What happens if:
• THG prices hold around €450–500/t
• Annual contracts reset higher
• Nevada continues ramping
• RED III removing artificial supply
If Q3 looked strong despite legacy contract drag, then Q4 FY25/26 and Q1–Q2 FY26/27 may end up being the more important earnings periods.
This is why I think €55–70/share does not necessarily require heroic assumptions.
The question may simply be:
Is the market pricing current earnings, or normalized earnings under a new THG regime?
Two things stand out from the earnings calls:
THG sensitivity is large
Management stated:
“If the GHG quota price increases by Euro 100, this can have an effect on our EBITDA on an annual basis of 40 to 80 million Euro.”
At the low end alone: THG: €200 → €450/t
= +€250/t move
Potential annual EBITDA impact: +€100M
That is using management’s own most conservative sensitivity.
The full reset may not yet be in the numbers
Management explained:
“The contracts are negotiated between October, November, December.”
And regarding 2025 contracts:
“CO₂ prices came down below a hundred... we had to negotiate the contracts for 2025.”
“I can tell you our CO₂ prices for the 2025 contracts were even lower.”
This matters.
Q1–Q2 FY25/26 likely still reflected contracts negotiated during a weak quota environment.
Meaning the company may not have captured the full THG repricing across its book.
Yet Q3 EBITDA still reached: €60.2M
And management raised expectations toward the upper end of guidance.
The question I’m asking:
What happens if:
• THG prices hold around €450–500/t
• Annual contracts reset higher
• Nevada continues ramping
• RED III removing artificial supply
If Q3 looked strong despite legacy contract drag, then Q4 FY25/26 and Q1–Q2 FY26/27 may end up being the more important earnings periods.
This is why I think €55–70/share does not necessarily require heroic assumptions.
The question may simply be:
Is the market pricing current earnings, or normalized earnings under a new THG regime?
Отказ от ответственности
Информация и публикации не предназначены для предоставления и не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или другими видами советов или рекомендаций, предоставленных или одобренных TradingView. Подробнее читайте в Условиях использования.
Отказ от ответственности
Информация и публикации не предназначены для предоставления и не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или другими видами советов или рекомендаций, предоставленных или одобренных TradingView. Подробнее читайте в Условиях использования.