Based on principle, where highest probability is when:
-(SPX) 50/200 UP sloping.
-Full correction
-Positive "context" (fundamentals, that change every year. For instance next year theme is new FED chair. Beginning of QE money printing etc).
Some times SPX drops and VIX flies on "fear". but strong trend stays in tact. And sometimes there is a full exhaust, meaning going up is "easy" (no resistance).
-(SPX) 50/200 UP sloping.
-Full correction
-Positive "context" (fundamentals, that change every year. For instance next year theme is new FED chair. Beginning of QE money printing etc).
Some times SPX drops and VIX flies on "fear". but strong trend stays in tact. And sometimes there is a full exhaust, meaning going up is "easy" (no resistance).
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adjusted to macd.Сделка активна
high probability for bigger correction in around ~march. Where you can trade based on relative VIX highs. Maybe even deep correction, when VIX breaks the previous high.
Key dates: out of my mind, are NVDA, ORCL earnings. Q1 (march) after a strong year/and 15 APR tax selling deadline. March 3rd week is a quad witching. 🤔 cool stuff
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(NVDA) I think we are on a stage with lack of "consensus", meaning market doesn't know whether it has high expectation or low expectation (that it can use as a "variable" if that makes sense). High expectation + good NVDA earnings beat, but price doesnt change - equals market top. Hence market corrections week or weeks before the earning due to fear. I think this is a year of consolidation.
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