XAUUSD continues to trade within a bearish channel on the H3 timeframe, having repeatedly formed lower highs and faced rejection at the channel's upper boundary. Price is currently approaching the Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone around 4,063—an area that also aligns with the bearish trend line and the Ichimoku cloud. This zone is significant as it could attract renewed selling pressure if buyers fail to achieve a decisive breakout.
Fundamentally, gold remains under pressure from a strong US dollar and elevated US bond yields, as the market continues to price in the likelihood of the Fed maintaining high interest rates for longer. Reuters has also reported that rising oil prices are fueling inflation concerns, further pushing back expectations for rate cuts. These factors continue to favor the bears in the short term.
The preferred scenario is to wait for a price retracement to test the 4,063 zone. If a rejection candle or bearish reaction occurs at this FVG zone, XAUUSD could resume its move toward the lower boundary of the bearish channel, which acts as dynamic support for the current trend. Conversely, if the price closes firmly above 4,063 on the H3 chart and breaks out of the bearish channel, selling pressure would weaken significantly, opening the door for a potential short-term reversal.
Fundamentally, gold remains under pressure from a strong US dollar and elevated US bond yields, as the market continues to price in the likelihood of the Fed maintaining high interest rates for longer. Reuters has also reported that rising oil prices are fueling inflation concerns, further pushing back expectations for rate cuts. These factors continue to favor the bears in the short term.
The preferred scenario is to wait for a price retracement to test the 4,063 zone. If a rejection candle or bearish reaction occurs at this FVG zone, XAUUSD could resume its move toward the lower boundary of the bearish channel, which acts as dynamic support for the current trend. Conversely, if the price closes firmly above 4,063 on the H3 chart and breaks out of the bearish channel, selling pressure would weaken significantly, opening the door for a potential short-term reversal.
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