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Gold Trading Analysis Today

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Market Analysis:

On Thursday (June 25th) during Asian trading hours, spot gold prices encountered a new wave of selling. Under multiple pressures including a continuously strengthening US dollar, rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, and easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, London gold prices fell below the $4,000 mark, reaching their lowest level since November last year, temporarily dimming gold's safe-haven appeal.

With the changing market environment, the strong performance of international gold prices this year is facing a severe test. At the end of January this year, spot gold reached a record high of $5,600 per ounce. However, with the reversal of Federal Reserve policy expectations, the continued strengthening of the US dollar, and the cooling of safe-haven demand, gold prices have since continued to decline. Gold has fallen by more than $1,600 from its historical high, and before a clear change in the direction of Federal Reserve policy, gold is likely to remain in a weak and volatile pattern in the short term.

Technical Analysis: Gold's weekly chart shows a large bearish candle breaking below the 60-day moving average (MA60) at 4110, followed by a significant drop in volume. The daily chart maintains the expected consecutive bearish structure, with the 10-day and 7-day moving averages continuing their downward trend to 4175 and 4130 respectively. The price is gradually declining along the 5-day moving average, with highs and lows gradually decreasing. Gold continues to trade within the lower half of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, reaching a 26-year low of 3959. On the shorter-term 4-hour and hourly charts, after breaking below 3970, the RSI indicator showed an oversold signal, leading to a rebound. The focus today is on the strength of this rebound. The trading strategy remains primarily to sell at higher prices.

Strategy Recommendations:
Buy gold at 3900-3910, with a stop-loss at 3870, and a target of 3980-4000.
Sell gold at 4010-4020, with a stop-loss at 4050, and a target of 3900-3930.

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