1. Momentum Analysis
The divergence between timeframes suggests the market is in a critical transitional phase:
– D1 Timeframe: Currently reversing to the upside. If this reversal is maintained, we could see 3–5 days of bullish or sideways-upward price action.
– H4 Timeframe: Currently in a downtrend, but price is moving sideways. This sideways or bearish pressure is likely to continue until H4 momentum reverses upward or enters the oversold zone.
– H1 Timeframe: Currently in the overbought zone and preparing for a bearish reversal. A short-term corrective drop is expected here.
2. Elliott Wave Structure
– Daily Timeframe (D1): Bullish Scenario – If today's candle closes green (bullish), it confirms a 3–5 day upward move.
– Since the recent correction was shallow, price is likely developing Wave D with the potential to break previous highs. A more distinct correction (Wave E) may appear afterward.
– 4-Hour Timeframe (H4): Transition between Correction and Reversal – Current Structure: Wave W has completed with a clear 3-wave structure. The current sideways movement is compressing, indicating a time-based equilibrium following the correction.
– Two potential scenarios:
1. Scenario 1 (Preferred): The correction is finished; price follows the D1 momentum to start a new bullish leg.
2. Scenario 2: This sideways phase is Wave X, to be followed by another leg down (Wave Y) before a major rally.
– Confirmation point: Observe the peaks and troughs when H4 momentum reverses. Higher Lows (HL) will confirm the uptrend; Lower Highs (LH) will indicate a continued downtrend.
– 1-Hour Timeframe (H1): Short-term Battleground – Current strong resistance: 4725.
– If the current upward move is an ABC structure (black): The target for Wave C completion is around 4754.
– If price fails to break 4725, it will likely return to test the support at 4656.
3. Trading Plan
– Sell Zone – Entry Zone: 4753 – 4755 (Expecting Wave C completion on H1).
– Stop Loss (SL): 4775.
– Take Profit (TP): TP1: 4725 | TP2: 4706 | TP3: 4685.
– Buy Zone – Entry Zone: 4661 – 4663 (Strong support area, aligned with D1 trend).
– Stop Loss (SL): 4641.
– Take Profit (TP): TP1: 4697 | TP2: 4706 | TP3: 4725.
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