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EURCAD → A set of bearish patterns foreshadowing the decline FOREXCOM:EURCAD is forming a standard bearish setup on the background of the forming downtrend, as the Canadian is getting stronger than the Euro and thus changing the market direction. On D1 we can see that in general the currency pair is in a global range and it is impossible to identify any key trend, so it is acceptable to trade both buying and selling within the range. But since we have a set of sell signals forming, we should expect further price decline. The level of 1.46400 (D1) plays an important role. Consolidation is formed, then the level is broken, after which a pin-bar is formed on the background of the retest, which confirms the interests of the market. On H1, the price breaks the consolidation support, makes a false break of 1.464 as part of the correction and even on H1 a bearish candlestick pattern is formed with subsequent consolidation of the price below the level, which is an additional confirmation. Support levels: 1.458, 1.456, 1.4478, 1.4350 Resistance levels: 1.464, 1.4747 I expect a continuation of the decline, a retest of 1.464 is possible, but in general the setup hints at the continuation of the downtrend. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
3
GOLD → Strong dollar influences further decline in gold OANDA:XAUUSD , following my expectation, on the background of Friday's NFP falls and reaches the target. The price is testing the level of 2000, but in my opinion, this target will not end this week. From December 11 to December 15 we are expecting a rather active week, fundamentally. On Friday we got a rather strong NPF for the dollar, which made gold fall from the zone I mentioned. The fundamental potential is not over, it will continue to influence the pricing in the medium term. It is also worth paying attention to the dollar. On the weekly timeframe we see the formation of a pinbar and a bullish candlestick, which overlaps the last two, which is a strong enough sign of further strengthening. Accordingly, gold and the forex market may react accordingly. Gold is currently testing the support area of the bearish channel. The important zone for us is 2007 - 2009. It is possible to form a retest, an impulse to 2010-2015 , or a false breakdown. Further consolidation of the price below this level will form a bearish potential, which will continue to pressure the price. The market is directed to the mentioned zones of interest and liquidity ( 1990, 1984, 1965, 1955 ) in the medium term. Fundamentally, the market has stopped paying attention to the nuances in the Middle East or Eastern Europe. Now everyone is waiting for some new information from Powell related to monetary policy, namely interest rates. But, more data on Initial Jobless Claims and NFP may make the Fed chief hesitant. Also, on the weekly timeframe, I found the " Cup with handle " pattern forming interesting. It is clear that within such a period it is impossible to determine the exact place of the breakout or the point of safe entry into the market, but the tendency to the fact that the extreme phase of the expected pattern is forming is already pleasing. Most likely, in the medium and long term, the price will continue to test the resistance 2070-2100 for a breakout and the formation of a new range, but not in the near future. OANDA:XAUUSD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! CAPITALCOM:US500 TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
19
EURUSD → Correction before the news. What could happen?FX:EURUSD is forming a false breakout. This may be the reason for the formation of correction in the short term. The market is also expecting news today, which is worth paying attention to. We are interested in CDGO (MoM) today and the one that may affect the price in the short to medium term is Initial Jobless Claims. For the latter, analysts are expecting an improvement in the indications from 231K to 225K. If the actual data released at 13:30 GMT is higher than expected, the correction may end and the pair will start to strengthen. If the data will be lower than expected, the correction is likely to be a little bit delayed From the technical analysis point of view, an actual false breakdown could be the reason for the price decline to 1.0875 or to 0.382 or 0.5 fibo. But since we have a fairly strong fundamental basis for the medium term, the currency pair has the following areas as targets: 1.1033, 1.115, 1.127 Support levels: 1.0875, 0.382 fibo, 0.05 fibo Resistance levels: 1.0918 The correction may continue until the publication of news that may determine the short-medium term outlook. I expect growth after the test of local support areas. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
13
DXCM - bottom fishing (swing trade)DXCM had been essentially a range bound stock in the past 3 years, forming what is potentially a long term head & shoulders formation (bearish if break down). However, it looks like the odds of breaking down has diminished with a bullish monthly pin bar now forming after finding support at its 88.6% fib retracement (imperfect double bottom). The stock is still below its 200 day MA but this MA is less relevant for a stock that is just ranging sideways for the past few years. It can still be a good candidate for swing trade due to its wide range. The daily chart is starting to exhibit reversal patterns with higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). The recent earnings gap up on huge volume was a good catalyst. And the subsequent pullback to almost close the gap (and today's "bullish harami" to signify potential rebound) provided an opportunity to long at lower risk. Ready to test a small long position with initial stop loss just under $83.50 (allowing for gap fill that might still stand a small chance of happening IMO) Disclaimer: This is just my own analysis and opinion for discussion and is NOT a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management (ie trailing stop loss and position sizing) is (probably the most) important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:DXCMLong
by Juliac
Daily pinbar candle. Fundamental still bullish?!Hi guys. Last week was again a week full off strong bullish momentum. Even the big resistance levels couldn't stop the massive bullrun. The market is overal more moving on fundamentals then technicals. The war going on is making the precious metal in big demand. I adviced traders to be carefull with selling the market. Intraday/swingtraders having a hard time shorting the market atm. If we look at the friday daily closing. We can see a big pinbar. 1983-1985 is big resistance level. It broke in lower timeframe(up to 1997)but created a fakeout in higher timeframe. We tried buying gold after the break and retest. But H4 did not mange to close above the resistance zone. THe pinbar candle indicates a posible stop to the bullrun. But keep in mind the market is mostly running on fundamentals. So in my opinion gold will fall from the resistance level towards posible 1972, 1953 or as low as 1930 before the bull run starts again. Gold is also moving between a channel. So it is posible for gold to follow the channel upwards. Resistance: 1985, 2009, 2025, 2065 Support: 1972, 1953,1930
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ForexGoldIntraday
Bank of Japan's Dovish Line Pushes Yen DownSTRATEGY LONG TARGET 175USD YEN The market thinks the Bank of Japan’s new governor is negative for the yen and a plus for stocks, at least based on his first policy board meeting. In fact, the headline NFP print showed that the US economy added 253K new jobs in April against 179K anticipated, offsetting the downwardly revised reading of 165K. Adding to this, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 3.4% during the reported month from 3.5% in March, which assists the US Dollar (USD) to regain strong positive traction and provides a goodish lift to the USD/JPY pair. Apart from this, a positive turnaround in the global risk sentiment - as depicted by a goodish recovery in the equity markets - undermines the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY) and further contributes to the bid tone surrounding the USD/JPY pair. That said, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) less hawkish stance holds back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and keeps a lid on any further gains, at least for now. Nevertheless, the USD/JPY pair, for now, seems to have snapped a three-day losing streak and stalled this week's sharp retracement slide from the 137.75-137.80 region, or a two-month high. Spot prices, however, remain on track to register losses for the first time in the previous four weeks. This makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before placing fresh bullish bets around the major. After Gov. Kazuo Ueda presided over his first meeting, the bank emphasized that it would continue monetary easing to support growth in wages and prices. That was enough to persuade market players that an interest-rate increase isn’t in the cards soon. Late Friday in Tokyo, the yen was trading at around 136 to the dollar, compared with around 134 to the dollar before the central bank’s midday decision. The USD/JPY pair catches aggressive bids during the early North American session and jumps to the 135.00 psychological mark in reaction to the stellar US monthly employment details. USD BULLISH When the dust settles, the Fed is set to continue raising rates US to have permanently higher rates than elsewhere Re-acceleration of inflation and its win over the Fed will continue to catch the market by surprise The Dollar is higher for longer, alongside the Fed’s narrative Stagflation to take USD even higher Hot CPI means the Fed pivot is well beyond the horizon Ugly inflation promises further flight to safety US at war means a stronger dollar Outlook for Fed monetary policy now more hawkish Powell projects pain, higher rates for longer set to keep the dollar bid There is no alternative to the US dollar No recession for America's labor market, more dollar gains eyed Fed Chair Powell prioritizes fighting inflation, and ready to see negative growth
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
59
💱 NZDUSD - Head and shoulders. Bear potential NZDUSD is forming a false breakout and reversal pattern. There is an opportunity for a decline to 0.59000 TA on high timeframe: 1) False breakout of global range resistance 2) The market considers liquidity in the area of 0.59600 as a target TA on low timeframe: 1) A false breakdown in the "head and shoulders" format is formed 2) Price starts realization of the pattern after breaking its base 3) I am waiting for a fall to 0.5985 and 0.59600. Key support📉: 0.5985 Key resistance📈: 0.60000
Short
by AndeWave
10
🥇GOLD - The market may strengthen the price GOLD has been rising since the opening. The reason is the conflict in the Middle East and the fundamental factors of last week. Consolidation is forming and most likely the price may test the support before further growth. TA on the timeframe: 1) The reason for the rise today is the geopolitical factor. And as we know, in all crisis situations there is a growing interest in gold. 2) False breakout of strong 0.5 fibo level. FB may be followed by strong growth TA on the low timeframe: 1) Price is consolidating in a narrow range. Most likely a strong impulse may be followed by a retest of 0.5 fibo support 2) At the moment people still do not know what to do and are preparing to buy gold, but before further growth the market can fool the player and take out stoplosses, which are below 1846. 3) waiting for a rise to 1878 Key support📉: 1846, 1840 Key resistance📈: 1853
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AndeWave
20
SPX & NQ - optimism is backWe had a rather treacherous 2.5 months of corrections since both SPX and NQ hit their peaks in July, resulting in a 50% and nearly 38% fib retracements respectively of both indices' major AB upswing in (Mar - Jul). SPX breached its H&S neckline briefly before finding support near major support zone (comprising 200day MA, Horizontal support, VWAP, 50% fib retracement) around 4200. Nasdaq fared slightly better and did not breach its H&S support, but teetered on the brink for days before the bulls finally won as it staged a sharp rebound last Friday. Market breath is still mixed with Nasdaq100 leading the pack with 61% of the stocks above their 200day MA (ticker: NDTH), followed by S&P500 with only 40% of the stocks above their 200day MA (ticker: S5TH) and finally, Russell200 is weak with only 31% of its stocks above their 200day MA (ticker: R2TH). With such mixed market breaths, stock picking skills is paramount. While there are still a lot of strong/resilient counters out there (GOOG, META, AFL, ANET, APP, BAH, CLS, CRWD, LLY, VRT, ZS etc), there are also a lot of very weak counters that are now sweeping their (major or range) bottoms (CL, DIS, DOCU, DG, EL, RH etc). Plus many in between trying to breakup from their bases but with mixed results. As of now, the last quarter could more bullish than not, and , and knowing when to exit or sit tight. Market participation is still rather weak at the moment and volatility appears to be the new game for this high inflation era. Hence it could still be challenging to find the right stocks at the right time (entry and exit). Momentum/swing traders would prefer the strong stocks that continue to break higher after each retracement. The longer term investors might be more interested to do some bottom fishing (however, may risk picking a stock could remain at the bottom for a long time due to serious near term fundamental damage). For myself (swing trader), I would prefer to at least choose a stock that has broken up from a base, or to swing in and out of a strong stock. The extreme volatility means I could be swing in and out more often than I would have prefered. And money management rules (stop loss etc) must be adhered to (easier said than done!) Disclaimer: This is just my own analysis and opinion for discussion and is NOT a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management (ie trailing stop loss and position sizing) is (probably the most) important! Take care and Good Luck!
SPCFD:SPXLong
by Juliac
2
USDCAD → Growth may continue after correction FX:USDCAD is forming an impulse from the base of the ascending price channel. When breaking through the resistance mentioned earlier, we see active strengthening, which is also supported by the fundamental component The TVC:DXY is in a bullish trend, as evidenced by the weekly chart on the left. The price is chasing a rise towards 107.5, which will make the currency pair strengthen. On the USDCAD chart we see a local stop in front of the resistance at 1.3712, consolidation is forming, which may activate the correction phase. The correction may end with a retest of 1.3640 support or form a small pullback and a retest of 1.3712. In the future, I expect the continuation of active growth on the part of the currency pair. As a target I pursue the area of 1.3800. Moving averages indicate bullish potential. Support levels: 1.3690, 1.3640 Resistance levels: 1.3712 I expect the growth to continue after a small correction or consolidation. Target 1.3800. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
14
🥇GOLD - The fall may continue, but after a small correction Gold reaches the specified level and forms a false breakout attempt. A rebound may be formed. But there is a chance of a continuation of the fall from the level of 1825. TA on the high timeframe: 1) Broken 0.5 fibo level. A strong fall is formed from the opening 2) The liquidity area that the price can test within the counter-trend correction is in the area of 1840-1850. TA on the low timeframe: 1) We have a strong downtrend 2) The price cannot fall all the time. If there is a false breakout of 1825 and the price forms consolidation above the level, there may be a rebound to local resistance levels. 3) In the medium term, the fall will continue, but after a probable correction. Key support📉: 1825 Key resistance📈: 1833, 1840, 1850
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AndeWave
12
💱USDJPY - Active bullish trend. Target 152.00.USDJPY continues to go to its target. The market is interested in the mark of 151.95. Against the background of a strong trend, we should look for either support levels and buy on the bounce, or resistance levels and buy on the breakout. TA on the high timeframe: 1) Strong pattern on d1. V-turn pattern. Price is breaking through the base, which is a strong medium term signal 2) There is a void ahead and liquidity area only around 152.00 TA on the low timeframe: 1) A retest of 148.86 support is forming. False breakout increases liquidity for further upside. Fundamentally, we have a strong dollar and a weak JPY, which can be seen on the chart 2) We are interested in resistance at 149.934. Consolidation of the price above the level will form a buy signal. 3) Targets: 150.5, 151.0 Key resistance📈: 149.934 Key support📉: 149.7
Long
by AndeWave
10
🥇GOLD - The buyer is out of the market. A big drop Gold is forming a strong decline. The price is breaking support levels without any particular reaction from the buyers. The decline is likely to continue until gold finds strong support TA on the high timeframe: 1) The market is breaking the 0.5 fibo area and forming further momentum. One of the key support levels may be tested soon 2) An area of liquidity that can stop the price still far away TA on low timeframe: 1) The 0.5 fibo is broken, at 1840.9. 2) Price is heading towards 1825, a correction can be formed from this level. After the correction, it makes sense to expect a fall. Within the counter-trend correction the price may reach 1930, 1940. 3) Medium-term target for us is 1807 (level from the weekly chart) Key support📉: 1825, 1815, 1810 Key resistance📈: 1840
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AndeWave
16
GOLD →The market doesn't feel supported. Further ↘︎OANDA:XAUUSD is in a strong distributive phase, the price is not even stopped by the 1885 level (liquids area). The price is updating the low amid negative fundamentals, as evidenced by strong weakness from buyers On Wednesday, the market forms a paranormal candle, the closing of which suggests the continuation of the fall, the local level of 1875 and 1872.58 is formed. If this zone is overcome and the price consolidates below this area, a bearish potential will be formed. But before the further fall, the market-maker may make a rebound to increase the liquidity. In the correction phase the price may reach such zones as: 1880, 1885 !!, 1890. But, it is worth paying attention to the D1 chart, the price is breaking the support of the symmetrical triangle, now the market has entered the phase of realization of the accumulated potential. On the background of bullish news for the TVC:DXY , the XAU price entry into the empty range can only accelerate its fall to 1800. This level is the nearest significant one. At the moment it is difficult to talk about buying, the medium-term market is ready to fall. We continue to follow the price Support levels: 1875, 1872,5 Resistance levels: 1880, 1885, 1890 Market is red, DXY is being pushed up on the back of unstable inflation. Gold is not feeling strong support levels, suggesting weak buying power OANDA:XAUUSD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:SI1! TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
22
🥇Gold reaches important support. Waiting for a reboundGold is reaching an important goal for us. We've been waiting for this. A test of the level of 1885.100 is being formed. On the background of distributive fall and strong sell-offs, a rebound may occur. TA on the high timeframe: 1) A huge pool of liquidity is formed below the level of 1885, most likely, a false breakout should occur before the rebound TA on the low timeframe: 1) The false breakout could be quick (a few 5-minute sections) or it could be a long one 2) Either way it should be expected. Price after a strong fall may enter a correction or consolidation phase 3) If a false breakout is formed (not yet started), the price will go under the level and will trade lower for some time, but after the growth and return above 1885, an active growth (buyback) will be formed Key support📉: 1885 Key resistance📈: 1900
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AndeWave
21
GOLD → Bearish Pin-Bar on Negative Fundamental Background OANDA:XAUUSD is testing the upper boundary of the global descending resistance again at the end of last week. The retest occurs at the moment of strong news, but the key candlestick pattern is formed exactly at the moment of FED & FOMC speech, as a result of which the market determines the further prospect of strengthening the dollar and hence - the fall in the price of gold. In the coming week the market is expecting a lot of important news and I recommend to pay attention to Thursday and Friday. Lots of data that can determine the medium term pespectives for us. For example: GDP (QoQ) (Q2) Initial Jobless Claims Fed Chair Powell Speaks Core PCE Price Index (YoY) & (MoM) Based on the FOMC position from last week we have some views on the market at the moment, but confirmation is also needed. As for the market situation. I recommend to pay attention to the dollar. During the publication of the data the index only fixed above the level I mentioned earlier and after that it starts to form an impulse. The price opens a corridor to the side of 106 and 107.99, in this case this growth of the TVC:DXY will give a huge potential for a fall in the price of gold. The nearest target support in the medium term is the level of 1902.8. On the chart above, I have indicated several important levels to pay attention to as the price approaches them. From a global perspective, gold is in a consolidation phase, as evidenced by the monthly chart on the main screen. A strong accumulation zone is forming relative to the resistance area. In the coming week, I expect a fall towards the 1915 side or even 1900. As we see a sideways range forming and a deep false breakout of resistance with huge liquidity below 1910, this clearly defines the future prospects for the market maker. Most likely the medium term outlook at the moment is that the market is ready to lose ground further, how long this will hold is unclear, but it all depends on the world view (especially the US) on inflation OANDA:XAUUSD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:SI1! TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
19
🥇GOLD - Selling off on weak news. Pin-bar Gold is losing almost 1.5% amid sell-offs. Yesterday, before the FED speech, the market maker strengthened the price to 1947.3. The news was strong for the dollar and weak for gold, thus we see a strong sell-off and at the moment the price is at 1919.5. Ta on the high timeframe: 1) False break of resistance at 1934 2) A strong candlestick pattern is formed for further selling. 3) A pin-bar is formed on the background of the false breakout. Target 1900 TA on the low timeframe: 1) False breakout of sideways range resistance defines further targets as 1910, 1907, 1901 2) Market is still bearish, price is falling below key levels 3) A retest of 1922.4 may soon follow before further declines Key support📉: 1916.9 Key resistance📈: 1922.4
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AndeWave
10
🥇GOLD - False breakdown forms a double top Gold on Friday forms a false breakdown of flat resistance (indicated on the chart). On Monday, the market forms a retest of the upper boundary and forms a false breakout again. TA on the high timeframe: 1) The market is still continuing to form a bearish trend 2) A retest of the liquidity area forms a false breakout, indicating buyer weakness at the moment. TA on the low timeframe: 1) Consolidation under resistance is forming. The market is preparing to fall 2) Within the flat we have the following targets: 1916.7 and 1907.6, which can be reached in the near future 3) Ahead is the local support at 1922 which may push the price away. At this point, the market may retest the resistance 4) We care about the dollar's reaction to the news. If the dollar starts to rise and overcomes the resistance, gold will head towards 1900. Key resistance📈: 1928.5 Key support📉: 1922, 1916 and 1907
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AndeWave
13
GOLD → Another false breakout on resistance retest OANDA:XAUUSD is weakening after a resistance retest that ends in a false resistance breakout. Yesterday, in Sunday's XAU idea, I talked about prioritizing a further drop as the dollar is poised to rise further and gold forms a false break of trend resistance Price is back under a strong descending resistance line. Consolidation below this line will form a strong bearish potential. The TVC:DXY forms a retest of 105.00, a fairly strong resistance that holds the price for a long time. This week there are many key news that will affect the market pricing and the $ value, which will give us a medium term outlook for both forex and gold. At the moment I expect a further decline in the price. The first important target is 1916.7, then 1903.8. The second option is important if the fundamental background does not change its direction. Resistance levels: 1928, 1926 Support levels: 1916, 1903 The market is testing the resistance for a breakout, but it is not ready yet, as the fundamental background for gold is still on the side of the bears OANDA:XAUUSD CAPITALCOM:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
32