Rigetti Q3 Earnings: Will Commercial Progress Translate Into Growth?
Rigetti Computing RGTI is likely to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 10, with investors looking for evidence that its growing order pipeline is translating into revenue growth and stronger commercial traction. The company's first-half performance benefited from previously announced Novera quantum processing unit orders, but revenue recognition remains dependent on system delivery and customer acceptance.
In the second quarter, management reiterated that the $8.4 million order from India's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC) is expected to be recognized in the fourth quarter following installation and performance acceptance testing. Consequently, investors will look for updates on the remaining system deliveries planned for 2026, additional Novera orders and demand from universities, national laboratories and commercial customers.
The expanded collaboration with Hewlett Packard Enterprise and Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center also highlights Rigetti's efforts to establish a presence in hybrid quantum-classical computing. However, the associated system delivery is expected in 2027.
Beyond near-term sales, progress in improving system performance will remain critical to Rigetti's growth prospects. Management is targeting median two-qubit gate fidelity of approximately 99.5% for its 108-qubit Cepheus-1 system by the end of 2026, compared with approximately 99.1% in the second quarter. Coherence time remains the primary technical constraint, with the company pursuing improvements through chip design, fabrication processes and materials research, including its collaboration with Fermilab.
Investors will look for updates on whether improvements demonstrated on smaller 9-qubit and 36-qubit platforms are translating into better performance at the 108-qubit level. Progress toward higher-qubit systems and the longer-term objective of approximately 1,000 qubits will also be important in assessing the company's ability to scale its chiplet-based architecture. Updates on the potential $100 million Department of Commerce funding arrangement, which remains subject to a definitive agreement, could provide further clarity on the resources available to accelerate these initiatives.
Peers Updates
IonQ IONQ signed an $8.18 million commercial agreement with Congruity360 to integrate its post-quantum cryptography and quantum key distribution appliances into the latter's enterprise data management platform, strengthening its foothold in the enterprise cybersecurity market. The company also advanced its hardware roadmap by launching Superion 256, its sixth-generation quantum computing platform, after fabricating its first integrated 256-qubit quantum processing units with SkyWater and successfully trapping ions in prototype systems across multiple U.S. facilities.
Quantum Computing Inc. QUBT, or QCi, announced the launch of Dirac-3S, the next-generation version of its Dirac-3 quantum optimization machine. The upgraded platform focuses on three key areas — Speed, Scale and Solutions — offering faster performance, improved solution quality, greater computing capacity and a modular architecture that can accommodate expanding customer requirements. The launch marks an important step toward commercializing QCi's quantum optimization technology, with the first customer shipment of Dirac-3S expected in November 2026.
Rigetti’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
Shares of RGTI have lost 49.4% in the year-to-date period compared with the industry’s decline of 2.2%.
From a valuation standpoint, Rigetti trades at a price-to-book ratio of 6.96, above the industry average. RGTI carries a Value Score of F.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rigetti’s 2026 earnings implies a significant 70.3% improvement from the year-ago period.
The company currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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