OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Обновлено RC Tools - CUSUM Drift Detector
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█ OVERVIEW
Most trend tools measure a single bar or a moving-average deviation, so a slow, persistent drift that never produces one dramatic bar can slip under their radar. This tool applies CUSUM — Cumulative Sum Control Chart, a classical statistical process control technique — to detect exactly that: a sustained departure from "no drift" that accumulates over many small moves rather than one large one.
█ WHAT IT DOES
Tracks two running sums of log returns — one for upward drift, one for downward — and flags a directional regime once the accumulated drift breaches a volatility-scaled threshold. Colours the chart background Bullish or Bearish Drift accordingly, plots the two accumulating sums against their threshold lines in a dedicated pane, and shows a table with the current state, how long price has been in it, and historical base rates (average forward return and win rate) for each state.
█ THE THEORY BEHIND IT
CUSUM was developed by E.S. Page in 1954 for detecting a persistent shift in a manufacturing process mean — the same statistical question as "has this market started drifting in a new direction," just applied to price instead of a factory line. The key property that separates it from a moving average or a single-bar threshold: CUSUM accumulates. A string of small, consistent moves in one direction builds up and eventually crosses the detection threshold, even if no individual bar looks remarkable. Pure noise — moves that cancel out — never accumulates at all, because a small "allowance" is subtracted from every observation before it's added to the running sum.
Critically, the reference point CUSUM measures departure from is fixed at zero, not a rolling average of the same series. A rolling mean would chase the trend and cancel out the very drift being measured — anchoring at a fixed "no drift" baseline is what makes the classical test work.
█ HOW IT IS CALCULATED
1. Compute log returns of the selected source.
2. Estimate sigma — the rolling standard deviation of those log returns over the Window Length — as the local noise scale.
3. Two running sums accumulate each bar:
S+ = max(0, S+ prev + (log return − k)) — accumulates upward drift
S− = min(0, S− prev + (log return + k)) — accumulates downward drift
where k (the Drift Allowance) is a small multiple of sigma, subtracted out so ordinary noise never builds a signal.
4. When S+ crosses above the threshold h (a larger multiple of sigma), a sustained upward drift is declared, the background flips Bullish, and S+ resets to zero to begin monitoring fresh. S− works symmetrically for downward drift.
5. Between detections, the classification holds — this is deliberate persistence, not a bug: CUSUM is built to answer "has the regime changed," not to flicker every bar.
Classification occurs ONLY on confirmed bar close — the plotted sums, the background colour and the table all update together, so nothing here can disagree mid-bar or flip back and forth as the current bar forms.
█ SETTINGS & CONFIGURATION
• Source (default close)
• Window Length (default 14) — rolling window for the sigma (noise-scale) estimate
• Decision Threshold h (default 2.0σ) — how much accumulated drift is required before a regime shift is declared
• Drift Allowance k (default 0.2σ) — moves smaller than this are subtracted out and never accumulate
• Forward Return Window (default 20 bars) — the horizon used for the base-rate table
• Table position and colours are fully configurable; the main-chart background painting can be toggled off if you only want the CUSUM pane
█ HOW TO USE IT
Use it as a slow-drift filter alongside faster tools, not as a standalone entry trigger. Because CUSUM only flips after drift has genuinely accumulated, it tends to confirm a regime later than a fast oscillator but with fewer false starts in choppy conditions — the trade-off is lag for reliability. Check the base-rate table's sample count before treating any single state as meaningfully predictive.
Works on any asset and timeframe with sufficient history for the Window Length.
█ LIMITATIONS
• CUSUM detects a PERSISTENT departure from zero drift, not a magnitude or overbought/oversold level. Any use of it as a precise reversal forecast is a misuse.
• The fixed zero reference is directional-agnostic to any trend that existed before the current accumulation window began — it only measures drift accumulated since the last reset.
• h and k are both expressed in sigma multiples; a poorly-fit Window Length will misclassify ordinary volatility as drift, or vice versa.
• Resets on trigger mean the tool can flip again quickly after one large accumulation event, then need to rebuild before flipping a second time.
• Historical base-rate stats need a meaningful sample count (check N) before being trusted, especially in a low-frequency-flip regime or on a short history.
• This script does NOT repaint. All classification updates on confirmed bar close only.
█ DISCLAIMER
For educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here is financial advice. Past behaviour of any drift state does not indicate future results. Trade at your own risk.
█ OVERVIEW
Most trend tools measure a single bar or a moving-average deviation, so a slow, persistent drift that never produces one dramatic bar can slip under their radar. This tool applies CUSUM — Cumulative Sum Control Chart, a classical statistical process control technique — to detect exactly that: a sustained departure from "no drift" that accumulates over many small moves rather than one large one.
█ WHAT IT DOES
Tracks two running sums of log returns — one for upward drift, one for downward — and flags a directional regime once the accumulated drift breaches a volatility-scaled threshold. Colours the chart background Bullish or Bearish Drift accordingly, plots the two accumulating sums against their threshold lines in a dedicated pane, and shows a table with the current state, how long price has been in it, and historical base rates (average forward return and win rate) for each state.
█ THE THEORY BEHIND IT
CUSUM was developed by E.S. Page in 1954 for detecting a persistent shift in a manufacturing process mean — the same statistical question as "has this market started drifting in a new direction," just applied to price instead of a factory line. The key property that separates it from a moving average or a single-bar threshold: CUSUM accumulates. A string of small, consistent moves in one direction builds up and eventually crosses the detection threshold, even if no individual bar looks remarkable. Pure noise — moves that cancel out — never accumulates at all, because a small "allowance" is subtracted from every observation before it's added to the running sum.
Critically, the reference point CUSUM measures departure from is fixed at zero, not a rolling average of the same series. A rolling mean would chase the trend and cancel out the very drift being measured — anchoring at a fixed "no drift" baseline is what makes the classical test work.
█ HOW IT IS CALCULATED
1. Compute log returns of the selected source.
2. Estimate sigma — the rolling standard deviation of those log returns over the Window Length — as the local noise scale.
3. Two running sums accumulate each bar:
S+ = max(0, S+ prev + (log return − k)) — accumulates upward drift
S− = min(0, S− prev + (log return + k)) — accumulates downward drift
where k (the Drift Allowance) is a small multiple of sigma, subtracted out so ordinary noise never builds a signal.
4. When S+ crosses above the threshold h (a larger multiple of sigma), a sustained upward drift is declared, the background flips Bullish, and S+ resets to zero to begin monitoring fresh. S− works symmetrically for downward drift.
5. Between detections, the classification holds — this is deliberate persistence, not a bug: CUSUM is built to answer "has the regime changed," not to flicker every bar.
Classification occurs ONLY on confirmed bar close — the plotted sums, the background colour and the table all update together, so nothing here can disagree mid-bar or flip back and forth as the current bar forms.
█ SETTINGS & CONFIGURATION
• Source (default close)
• Window Length (default 14) — rolling window for the sigma (noise-scale) estimate
• Decision Threshold h (default 2.0σ) — how much accumulated drift is required before a regime shift is declared
• Drift Allowance k (default 0.2σ) — moves smaller than this are subtracted out and never accumulate
• Forward Return Window (default 20 bars) — the horizon used for the base-rate table
• Table position and colours are fully configurable; the main-chart background painting can be toggled off if you only want the CUSUM pane
█ HOW TO USE IT
Use it as a slow-drift filter alongside faster tools, not as a standalone entry trigger. Because CUSUM only flips after drift has genuinely accumulated, it tends to confirm a regime later than a fast oscillator but with fewer false starts in choppy conditions — the trade-off is lag for reliability. Check the base-rate table's sample count before treating any single state as meaningfully predictive.
Works on any asset and timeframe with sufficient history for the Window Length.
█ LIMITATIONS
• CUSUM detects a PERSISTENT departure from zero drift, not a magnitude or overbought/oversold level. Any use of it as a precise reversal forecast is a misuse.
• The fixed zero reference is directional-agnostic to any trend that existed before the current accumulation window began — it only measures drift accumulated since the last reset.
• h and k are both expressed in sigma multiples; a poorly-fit Window Length will misclassify ordinary volatility as drift, or vice versa.
• Resets on trigger mean the tool can flip again quickly after one large accumulation event, then need to rebuild before flipping a second time.
• Historical base-rate stats need a meaningful sample count (check N) before being trusted, especially in a low-frequency-flip regime or on a short history.
• This script does NOT repaint. All classification updates on confirmed bar close only.
█ DISCLAIMER
For educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here is financial advice. Past behaviour of any drift state does not indicate future results. Trade at your own risk.
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Removed Performance TableСкрипт с открытым кодом
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Скрипт с открытым кодом
В истинном духе TradingView, создатель этого скрипта сделал его открытым исходным кодом, чтобы трейдеры могли проверить и убедиться в его функциональности. Браво автору! Вы можете использовать его бесплатно, но помните, что перепубликация кода подчиняется нашим Правилам поведения.
Отказ от ответственности
Информация и публикации не предназначены для предоставления и не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или другими видами советов или рекомендаций, предоставленных или одобренных TradingView. Подробнее читайте в Условиях использования.