OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Global Net Liquidity - (Giovanni Fork)
Hello traders. This plots the combined balance sheets of the Fed, ECB, BoJ, PBoC and Bank of England, converted to dollars, with the US Treasury General Account and the Fed's reverse repo facility subtracted.
There are already a lot of global liquidity scripts on here, so I want to be clear about what this one does differently rather than just adding another overlay to the pile. Three things.
First, this is a net measure.
Gross central bank assets tell you how much money has been created. They do not tell you how much of it is actually available, because some of it gets created and then taken straight back out of circulation. Money sitting in the Treasury's account at the Fed is not in the system. Nor is cash parked overnight in the reverse repo facility. Subtracting those gives you what is genuinely out there, and that is what net means here. At the time of writing it is 0.97tn in the TGA coming off a gross of 22.37tn.
It is also worth saying that this is built from central bank balance sheets rather than M2. Those are related but they are not the same measure, so if you are comparing this against something else, check which one you are looking at.
Units are worth paying attention to when you combine feeds like this. The underlying sources do not agree with each other: FRED publishes the Fed balance sheet in millions and the reverse repo facility in billions, and the China balance sheet is reported in hundred millions of yuan. TradingView appears to normalise all of them to absolute units before serving them, which is why every scale factor in this script is 1.
I would still rather you checked than took my word for it. Every series has its own visible scale factor and the table prints each component in USD trillions, so you can compare the numbers against what you know the Fed and the ECB are actually running. If a row looks wrong by orders of magnitude, that series' scale input is wrong and you can correct it in the settings without touching the code.
Second, China is measured properly.
The PBoC balance sheet is a poor gauge of Chinese liquidity and most aggregates include it anyway. Its growth up to 2014 was foreign exchange accumulation rather than stimulus, so the series has meant different things in different decades. More importantly, the PBoC's main easing tool is the reserve requirement ratio, and that is balance sheet neutral. Cutting the RRR reclassifies required reserves as excess reserves, releasing roughly 1 trillion yuan per 50bp, while total assets do not move at all. The biggest thing the PBoC does is invisible to a balance sheet aggregate.
The default here subtracts required reserves, estimated as the reserve ratio applied to M2 as a deposit proxy, so an RRR cut registers as the easing it actually is. You can switch back to the plain balance sheet or to the commercial bank balance sheet in the settings. It is an approximation because China's RRR is tiered across large, small and rural banks and the headline rate only covers the large ones, but it responds to the right events.
Third, and this is the part I think adds most, the currency effect is separated out.
Every aggregate that converts foreign balance sheets at spot has dollar moves baked into it. A stronger dollar shrinks the line even when no central bank has done anything, and that gets reported as tightening.
The purple line is the same aggregate chain linked at constant currency. Each period's balance sheet change is converted at that period's own opening rate and accumulated, so it shows what the balance sheets did without the currency. The shaded gap between the two lines is the currency effect, and the table gives it as a number. Since January 2016 it is 1.56tn, meaning that much of the apparent decline in global liquidity was dollar strength rather than central bank action.
The BoJ is the clearest example. Its assets have grown in yen over recent years while its reported dollar contribution has fallen sharply. A gross liquidity chart reads that as the BoJ tightening. It didn't tighten, the yen moved.
A few things to be aware of before you use it.
The chain start date is January 2016 by default and it matters. The constant currency line is accumulated rather than measured, so it seeds at that date and the two lines are identical there by construction. The currency figure is always cumulative since the start date, so 1.56tn means since January 2016, not in absolute terms. Set the date later if you find a component with no data at the start.
The TGA and RRP are US specific drains applied to a global gross, which is slightly inconsistent. Everybody does it, few say so, so I am saying so.
The underlying data updates weekly at best and the PBoC monthly, so use this on daily or higher. Intraday just repeats the last print.
I built this because I wanted to know how much of the last three years of liquidity contraction was real and how much was the dollar. If it is useful to you, say so, and if you think I have got something wrong let me know.
There are already a lot of global liquidity scripts on here, so I want to be clear about what this one does differently rather than just adding another overlay to the pile. Three things.
First, this is a net measure.
Gross central bank assets tell you how much money has been created. They do not tell you how much of it is actually available, because some of it gets created and then taken straight back out of circulation. Money sitting in the Treasury's account at the Fed is not in the system. Nor is cash parked overnight in the reverse repo facility. Subtracting those gives you what is genuinely out there, and that is what net means here. At the time of writing it is 0.97tn in the TGA coming off a gross of 22.37tn.
It is also worth saying that this is built from central bank balance sheets rather than M2. Those are related but they are not the same measure, so if you are comparing this against something else, check which one you are looking at.
Units are worth paying attention to when you combine feeds like this. The underlying sources do not agree with each other: FRED publishes the Fed balance sheet in millions and the reverse repo facility in billions, and the China balance sheet is reported in hundred millions of yuan. TradingView appears to normalise all of them to absolute units before serving them, which is why every scale factor in this script is 1.
I would still rather you checked than took my word for it. Every series has its own visible scale factor and the table prints each component in USD trillions, so you can compare the numbers against what you know the Fed and the ECB are actually running. If a row looks wrong by orders of magnitude, that series' scale input is wrong and you can correct it in the settings without touching the code.
Second, China is measured properly.
The PBoC balance sheet is a poor gauge of Chinese liquidity and most aggregates include it anyway. Its growth up to 2014 was foreign exchange accumulation rather than stimulus, so the series has meant different things in different decades. More importantly, the PBoC's main easing tool is the reserve requirement ratio, and that is balance sheet neutral. Cutting the RRR reclassifies required reserves as excess reserves, releasing roughly 1 trillion yuan per 50bp, while total assets do not move at all. The biggest thing the PBoC does is invisible to a balance sheet aggregate.
The default here subtracts required reserves, estimated as the reserve ratio applied to M2 as a deposit proxy, so an RRR cut registers as the easing it actually is. You can switch back to the plain balance sheet or to the commercial bank balance sheet in the settings. It is an approximation because China's RRR is tiered across large, small and rural banks and the headline rate only covers the large ones, but it responds to the right events.
Third, and this is the part I think adds most, the currency effect is separated out.
Every aggregate that converts foreign balance sheets at spot has dollar moves baked into it. A stronger dollar shrinks the line even when no central bank has done anything, and that gets reported as tightening.
The purple line is the same aggregate chain linked at constant currency. Each period's balance sheet change is converted at that period's own opening rate and accumulated, so it shows what the balance sheets did without the currency. The shaded gap between the two lines is the currency effect, and the table gives it as a number. Since January 2016 it is 1.56tn, meaning that much of the apparent decline in global liquidity was dollar strength rather than central bank action.
The BoJ is the clearest example. Its assets have grown in yen over recent years while its reported dollar contribution has fallen sharply. A gross liquidity chart reads that as the BoJ tightening. It didn't tighten, the yen moved.
A few things to be aware of before you use it.
The chain start date is January 2016 by default and it matters. The constant currency line is accumulated rather than measured, so it seeds at that date and the two lines are identical there by construction. The currency figure is always cumulative since the start date, so 1.56tn means since January 2016, not in absolute terms. Set the date later if you find a component with no data at the start.
The TGA and RRP are US specific drains applied to a global gross, which is slightly inconsistent. Everybody does it, few say so, so I am saying so.
The underlying data updates weekly at best and the PBoC monthly, so use this on daily or higher. Intraday just repeats the last print.
I built this because I wanted to know how much of the last three years of liquidity contraction was real and how much was the dollar. If it is useful to you, say so, and if you think I have got something wrong let me know.
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В истинном духе TradingView, создатель этого скрипта сделал его открытым исходным кодом, чтобы трейдеры могли проверить и убедиться в его функциональности. Браво автору! Вы можете использовать его бесплатно, но помните, что перепубликация кода подчиняется нашим Правилам поведения.
Отказ от ответственности
Информация и публикации не предназначены для предоставления и не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или другими видами советов или рекомендаций, предоставленных или одобренных TradingView. Подробнее читайте в Условиях использования.
Скрипт с открытым кодом
В истинном духе TradingView, создатель этого скрипта сделал его открытым исходным кодом, чтобы трейдеры могли проверить и убедиться в его функциональности. Браво автору! Вы можете использовать его бесплатно, но помните, что перепубликация кода подчиняется нашим Правилам поведения.
Отказ от ответственности
Информация и публикации не предназначены для предоставления и не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или другими видами советов или рекомендаций, предоставленных или одобренных TradingView. Подробнее читайте в Условиях использования.