AUDNZD at Historical Levels - Layer Shorts
Every once in a while, markets reach extreme levels that can be taken advantage of. This is one of those times.
📊 Technical Analysis:
AUD/NZD D1 RSI is currently trading at its highest daily levels ever. We have only seen this once before, in August 2020. What followed then was a 630-pip downside move over the next 4 months.
Could this happen again, and should you short it? Let’s discuss:
🌍 Fundamental Perspective:
The move higher in AUD/NZD has been largely driven by NZD weakness. This stems from deteriorating economic data for the New Zealand economy. Currently, forward markets are pricing in a 0.5% rate cut at the October 8, 2025 RBNZ meeting. This is VERY dovish, and naturally, banks have been selling NZD heavily (as also reflected in EUR/NZD and NZD/CHF).
However, pricing in a double rate cut at the upcoming RBNZ meeting may already be as dovish as it gets. Yes, another cut later this year is possible, but often currencies show their largest moves around key events like rate decisions. The RBA (Australia’s central bank) is also due to announce policy this coming week. So we have two fundamental catalysts in play.
💡 Potential Trade
How can you take advantage of this setup? I would not short it outright. Instead, I would begin layering in small short positions (maximum of 0.2% per 1 ADR). If the market moves 1 ADR against you, you can add another very small position. This way, your average short entry remains close to current levels. Eventually, we are likely to see a mean-reversion move. This may take time, but history shows that at these RSI levels (and even lower), we have often seen significant pullbacks to the downside.
Keep this pair on your radar—it may pay off nicely with patience.
Best,
Meikel
Every once in a while, markets reach extreme levels that can be taken advantage of. This is one of those times.
📊 Technical Analysis:
AUD/NZD D1 RSI is currently trading at its highest daily levels ever. We have only seen this once before, in August 2020. What followed then was a 630-pip downside move over the next 4 months.
Could this happen again, and should you short it? Let’s discuss:
🌍 Fundamental Perspective:
The move higher in AUD/NZD has been largely driven by NZD weakness. This stems from deteriorating economic data for the New Zealand economy. Currently, forward markets are pricing in a 0.5% rate cut at the October 8, 2025 RBNZ meeting. This is VERY dovish, and naturally, banks have been selling NZD heavily (as also reflected in EUR/NZD and NZD/CHF).
However, pricing in a double rate cut at the upcoming RBNZ meeting may already be as dovish as it gets. Yes, another cut later this year is possible, but often currencies show their largest moves around key events like rate decisions. The RBA (Australia’s central bank) is also due to announce policy this coming week. So we have two fundamental catalysts in play.
💡 Potential Trade
How can you take advantage of this setup? I would not short it outright. Instead, I would begin layering in small short positions (maximum of 0.2% per 1 ADR). If the market moves 1 ADR against you, you can add another very small position. This way, your average short entry remains close to current levels. Eventually, we are likely to see a mean-reversion move. This may take time, but history shows that at these RSI levels (and even lower), we have often seen significant pullbacks to the downside.
Keep this pair on your radar—it may pay off nicely with patience.
Best,
Meikel
🔔 Wall Street Insider Gruppe:
t.me/therealwallstreetinsider
Profitables Copy Trading & Wall Street Coachings: wsi-capital.com/de/vipaccess/
Meine 20+ Jahre Tradingerfahrung in New York gebe ich nun an Dich weiter.
t.me/therealwallstreetinsider
Profitables Copy Trading & Wall Street Coachings: wsi-capital.com/de/vipaccess/
Meine 20+ Jahre Tradingerfahrung in New York gebe ich nun an Dich weiter.
การนำเสนอที่เกี่ยวข้อง
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน
🔔 Wall Street Insider Gruppe:
t.me/therealwallstreetinsider
Profitables Copy Trading & Wall Street Coachings: wsi-capital.com/de/vipaccess/
Meine 20+ Jahre Tradingerfahrung in New York gebe ich nun an Dich weiter.
t.me/therealwallstreetinsider
Profitables Copy Trading & Wall Street Coachings: wsi-capital.com/de/vipaccess/
Meine 20+ Jahre Tradingerfahrung in New York gebe ich nun an Dich weiter.
การนำเสนอที่เกี่ยวข้อง
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน