AUDUSD: The World Watches the Drama. Capital Buys Carry
While the medium-term trajectory points toward 0.75, near-term conditions favor a corrective pullback into the [0.701, 0.703] zone, potentially extending toward 0.694 before the broader uptrend resumes
Spoiler: Potential scenarios are detailed below. For those looking for the final verdict, scroll to the end. For those interested in the underlying logic, read on.
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Fundamentals:
🟢 The Bull Case (Positive):
1. Resource Sovereignty: Geopolitical tensions are likely to drive metal prices higher. Australia is a powerhouse in iron ore, lead, and zinc, with massive reserves of copper, silver, gold, uranium, and diamonds. Crucially, being a producer of oil and gas makes the economy less vulnerable to energy price shocks.
2. Fiscal Health: Australia maintains a healthy budget with a debt-to-GDP ratio of around 40% (compared to 60% in Germany, 85% in China and 125% in US), being the best result in G10.
3. The "Safe Harbor" Effect: Isolated from geopolitical flashpoints and boasting vast territory, high living standards, and a self-sufficient agricultural/industrial base, Australia remains a premier low-risk destination for Foreign Direct Investment.
🔴 The Bear Case (Negative):
1. Monetary Pressure: In February, the RBA hiked rates to 3.85% (target inflation 3-4%), with another hike expected in May 2026. While this supports the currency's yield, the resulting rise in housing and commodity costs pressures the retail consumer, making gains in purchasing power largely superficial.
2. China Dependency & Logistics: The economy remains tethered to Chinese demand and iron ore exports. Any logistical disruptions or the emergence of low-cost competitors (e.g., in Africa) could undermine export potential.
3. Yield Vulnerability: As a high-beta asset, the
AUDUSD 's yield advantage could vanish instantly if the RBA "pivots" due to sudden trade or tariff tensions.
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Technicals:
1. Structural Break: On Dec 3, 2025, price finally broke out of a multi-year bearish trend dating back to Feb 2021.
2. Historical Zone: In late January, the pair cleared a major Support/Resistance (S/R) zone established in 1992—a key pivot for long-term direction—though it has yet to be tested from above.
3. Correlation with Gold: If Gold starts falling, AUDUSD will fall quicker than we can press of "SELL" button
4. Pattern Formation: Since early February, an Ascending Wedge has been forming. As this is a widely recognized pattern **bearish in normal case, but does not play any significant role in case of strong trend**, I am looking for relatively synchronized market reactions.
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HERE
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Scenario 1: 🕒📉 The "Correction After March 15" (High Risk)
- Logic: Price makes one last push to [0.715 – 0.72] to test the global resistance level held since 1985.
- Execution: Given the significance of this level and its alignment with the 5th touch of the wedge pattern, a short reaction is highly probable. I will look for a Short entry at the upper boundary.
- Constraint: For the macro-bullish trend to remain intact, the correction must hold above the 2006 support zone.
✅ Entry Point: 0.72096
🛑 Stop-Loss: 0.7262 (local resistance from Jan 2023)
🤑 Target: 0.7016
⚙️ Risk/Reward: 1:3.7
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Scenario 2: ⚡️📉 The "Immediate Pullback" (Low Risk but requires fast reaction)
- Logic: As of March 1st, AUD is overbought (heavy Long positioning). Any market noise could trigger a "here and now" correction. The events of Feb 28 and March 1 might be that catalyst.
- Execution: If price drops sharply below 0.7085 on Monday, I will look for a retest of this level to confirm a Short entry down to 0.697 (liquidity squeeze).
- Constraint: The correction must not breach the 0.694 support level to keep the long-term trend valid.
✅ Entry Point: 0.70900
🛑 Stop-Loss: 0.71510 (global resistance from 1985)
🤑 Target: 0.701 (50%), 0.69566 (100%)
⚙️ Risk/Reward: 1:2.15
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Scenario 3: 🚀📈 The "Straight Continuation" (Long)
- Condition: If the price clears the 0.72 zone with no significant rejection, I will wait for confirmation at 0.7170 and open a Long position for a direct move to 0.7486.
✅ Entry Point: 0.7185
🛑 Stop-Loss: 0.70875 (below local support)
🤑 Target: 0.74825
⚙️ Risk/Reward: 1:3
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Final Note: Both short scenarios are invalidated if the price breaks decisively above 0.721. After the correction plays out, I will be monitoring the reaction at 0.702 and 0.694 to determine the next major leg.
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Good Luck! ☺️
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⚠️ DISCLAIMER: Not financial advice. Everyone must make trading decisions at their own risk, guided only by their own criteria and strategy for opening or not opening a trade
Spoiler: Potential scenarios are detailed below. For those looking for the final verdict, scroll to the end. For those interested in the underlying logic, read on.
# - - - - -
Fundamentals:
🟢 The Bull Case (Positive):
1. Resource Sovereignty: Geopolitical tensions are likely to drive metal prices higher. Australia is a powerhouse in iron ore, lead, and zinc, with massive reserves of copper, silver, gold, uranium, and diamonds. Crucially, being a producer of oil and gas makes the economy less vulnerable to energy price shocks.
2. Fiscal Health: Australia maintains a healthy budget with a debt-to-GDP ratio of around 40% (compared to 60% in Germany, 85% in China and 125% in US), being the best result in G10.
3. The "Safe Harbor" Effect: Isolated from geopolitical flashpoints and boasting vast territory, high living standards, and a self-sufficient agricultural/industrial base, Australia remains a premier low-risk destination for Foreign Direct Investment.
🔴 The Bear Case (Negative):
1. Monetary Pressure: In February, the RBA hiked rates to 3.85% (target inflation 3-4%), with another hike expected in May 2026. While this supports the currency's yield, the resulting rise in housing and commodity costs pressures the retail consumer, making gains in purchasing power largely superficial.
2. China Dependency & Logistics: The economy remains tethered to Chinese demand and iron ore exports. Any logistical disruptions or the emergence of low-cost competitors (e.g., in Africa) could undermine export potential.
3. Yield Vulnerability: As a high-beta asset, the
AUDUSD 's yield advantage could vanish instantly if the RBA "pivots" due to sudden trade or tariff tensions.# - - - - -
Technicals:
1. Structural Break: On Dec 3, 2025, price finally broke out of a multi-year bearish trend dating back to Feb 2021.
2. Historical Zone: In late January, the pair cleared a major Support/Resistance (S/R) zone established in 1992—a key pivot for long-term direction—though it has yet to be tested from above.
3. Correlation with Gold: If Gold starts falling, AUDUSD will fall quicker than we can press of "SELL" button
4. Pattern Formation: Since early February, an Ascending Wedge has been forming. As this is a widely recognized pattern **bearish in normal case, but does not play any significant role in case of strong trend**, I am looking for relatively synchronized market reactions.
# - - - - -
# - - - - -
# - - - - -
HERE
# - - - - -
# - - - - -
# - - - - -
Scenario 1: 🕒📉 The "Correction After March 15" (High Risk)
- Logic: Price makes one last push to [0.715 – 0.72] to test the global resistance level held since 1985.
- Execution: Given the significance of this level and its alignment with the 5th touch of the wedge pattern, a short reaction is highly probable. I will look for a Short entry at the upper boundary.
- Constraint: For the macro-bullish trend to remain intact, the correction must hold above the 2006 support zone.
✅ Entry Point: 0.72096
🛑 Stop-Loss: 0.7262 (local resistance from Jan 2023)
🤑 Target: 0.7016
⚙️ Risk/Reward: 1:3.7
# - - - - -
Scenario 2: ⚡️📉 The "Immediate Pullback" (Low Risk but requires fast reaction)
- Logic: As of March 1st, AUD is overbought (heavy Long positioning). Any market noise could trigger a "here and now" correction. The events of Feb 28 and March 1 might be that catalyst.
- Execution: If price drops sharply below 0.7085 on Monday, I will look for a retest of this level to confirm a Short entry down to 0.697 (liquidity squeeze).
- Constraint: The correction must not breach the 0.694 support level to keep the long-term trend valid.
✅ Entry Point: 0.70900
🛑 Stop-Loss: 0.71510 (global resistance from 1985)
🤑 Target: 0.701 (50%), 0.69566 (100%)
⚙️ Risk/Reward: 1:2.15
# - - - - -
Scenario 3: 🚀📈 The "Straight Continuation" (Long)
- Condition: If the price clears the 0.72 zone with no significant rejection, I will wait for confirmation at 0.7170 and open a Long position for a direct move to 0.7486.
✅ Entry Point: 0.7185
🛑 Stop-Loss: 0.70875 (below local support)
🤑 Target: 0.74825
⚙️ Risk/Reward: 1:3
# - - - - -
Final Note: Both short scenarios are invalidated if the price breaks decisively above 0.721. After the correction plays out, I will be monitoring the reaction at 0.702 and 0.694 to determine the next major leg.
# - - - - -
Good Luck! ☺️
# - - - - -
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: Not financial advice. Everyone must make trading decisions at their own risk, guided only by their own criteria and strategy for opening or not opening a trade
บันทึก
Price opened with a downside gap, but returned with a strong daily candle up to the Friday`s close by the end of Monday (without making oversweep of Friday`s close) and inside the ascending wedge pattern. If price closes strong by the end of the trading day and confirms support above 0.7096 on the day thereafter, thefurther movement up to 0.715, 0.72 (scenario 1) will be taken into account. Wherease closing below the suppoort level 0.7096 will trigger a stop-limit for a short trade
การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่
Price closed below resistance level 0.7096 but above planed sell-limit at 0.709The short order for 50% of position got actived for scenario 2 with a target 0.69566
บันทึก
Price reached first target at 0.701. Closed 50% of the position
ปิดการเทรด: ถึงเป้าหมายการทำกำไร
Closed the rest of the position at 0.69566That was quicker than expected
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คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน
Visit my Risk Enforcement App → mywarner.app/
Follow me on Telegram → t.me/totsamiykaa
Watch me on YT → youtube.com/@totsamiykaa
See me on Threads → threads.com/@totsamiykaa
Follow me on Telegram → t.me/totsamiykaa
Watch me on YT → youtube.com/@totsamiykaa
See me on Threads → threads.com/@totsamiykaa
การนำเสนอที่เกี่ยวข้อง
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน