Good evening! Today was published: 🔖 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (#JOLTS) USA 📉 Actual: 6.542M | Forecast: 7.200M | Previous: 6.928M
A lower-than-expected reading, such as 6.542M for December 2025 (versus the expected 7.2M and down from the revised 6.9M in November), signals declining labor demand and potential economic weakening. This could influence #Fed interest rate decisions in several key ways:
▪️Reduced inflationary pressure: Fewer job openings often mean less competition for workers, which can slow wage growth and reduce the risk of wage-driven inflation. If the Fed sees this as evidence that inflation is under control or approaching the 2% target, it may feel more comfortable cutting rates to support growth without triggering new price spikes.
▪️Supporting employment and growth: The Fed's dual mandate includes maximum employment. A cooling labor market may raise concerns about rising unemployment or slowing hiring in the future, prompting the Fed to cut rates to stimulate borrowing, investment, and consumer spending, thereby promoting job creation.
▪️Market expectations and forward guidance: Such data often shift investor bets on the rate trajectory. For example, if this JOLTS miss aligns with other weak indicators, it could increase the probability of a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting. On the other hand, if inflation remains sticky, the Fed may hold rates or delay cuts to avoid overstimulation.
Overall, such data tilts the balance toward "dovish" policy (rate cuts) rather than "hawkish" (hikes or holds), but the Fed weighs them in the context of a broader data set, including CPI, PCE inflation, and global factors.
👀 What to watch:
➡️ Nonfarm Payrolls (#NFP) – Feb 11 and Unemployment Rate – Feb 6 for January 2026: Employment growth of 60–70K jobs is expected, with unemployment at 4.4%. If the data comes in weaker than expected (fewer new jobs or rising unemployment), it will confirm the cooling trend and strengthen expectations of Fed rate cuts.
✔️ ADP National Employment Report: Already released on February 4 (yesterday). This is a private employment indicator, often preceding NFP. If it showed weak growth, that's an additional signal. 📉 Actual: 22K | Forecast: 46K | Previous: 37K
✔️ ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Shows activity in the services sector. A slowdown here would confirm the overall cooling trend. ↗️ Actual: 53.8 | Forecast: 53.5 | Previous: 53.8
✔️ Weekly Jobless Claims: Weekly unemployment benefit claims. Rising claims would indicate a deteriorating labor market. 📉 Actual: 231K | Forecast: 212K | Previous: 209K
➡️ Employment Cost Index (#ECI) for Q4 2025: February 10. Shows wage growth. If growth slows, it will ease inflationary pressure and support the case for rate cuts.
➡️ #CPI and #PCE Inflation: January CPI – February 13, PCE – later. If inflation declines or stabilizes below 3%, it will give the Fed room to cut rates.
A lower-than-expected reading, such as 6.542M for December 2025 (versus the expected 7.2M and down from the revised 6.9M in November), signals declining labor demand and potential economic weakening. This could influence #Fed interest rate decisions in several key ways:
▪️Reduced inflationary pressure: Fewer job openings often mean less competition for workers, which can slow wage growth and reduce the risk of wage-driven inflation. If the Fed sees this as evidence that inflation is under control or approaching the 2% target, it may feel more comfortable cutting rates to support growth without triggering new price spikes.
▪️Supporting employment and growth: The Fed's dual mandate includes maximum employment. A cooling labor market may raise concerns about rising unemployment or slowing hiring in the future, prompting the Fed to cut rates to stimulate borrowing, investment, and consumer spending, thereby promoting job creation.
▪️Market expectations and forward guidance: Such data often shift investor bets on the rate trajectory. For example, if this JOLTS miss aligns with other weak indicators, it could increase the probability of a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting. On the other hand, if inflation remains sticky, the Fed may hold rates or delay cuts to avoid overstimulation.
Overall, such data tilts the balance toward "dovish" policy (rate cuts) rather than "hawkish" (hikes or holds), but the Fed weighs them in the context of a broader data set, including CPI, PCE inflation, and global factors.
👀 What to watch:
➡️ Nonfarm Payrolls (#NFP) – Feb 11 and Unemployment Rate – Feb 6 for January 2026: Employment growth of 60–70K jobs is expected, with unemployment at 4.4%. If the data comes in weaker than expected (fewer new jobs or rising unemployment), it will confirm the cooling trend and strengthen expectations of Fed rate cuts.
✔️ ADP National Employment Report: Already released on February 4 (yesterday). This is a private employment indicator, often preceding NFP. If it showed weak growth, that's an additional signal. 📉 Actual: 22K | Forecast: 46K | Previous: 37K
✔️ ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Shows activity in the services sector. A slowdown here would confirm the overall cooling trend. ↗️ Actual: 53.8 | Forecast: 53.5 | Previous: 53.8
✔️ Weekly Jobless Claims: Weekly unemployment benefit claims. Rising claims would indicate a deteriorating labor market. 📉 Actual: 231K | Forecast: 212K | Previous: 209K
➡️ Employment Cost Index (#ECI) for Q4 2025: February 10. Shows wage growth. If growth slows, it will ease inflationary pressure and support the case for rate cuts.
➡️ #CPI and #PCE Inflation: January CPI – February 13, PCE – later. If inflation declines or stabilizes below 3%, it will give the Fed room to cut rates.
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การนำเสนอที่เกี่ยวข้อง
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน