Technical Analysis – Bitcoin CME Futures (BTC1!)
Date: October 27, 2025 | Timeframe: Weekly | Exchange: CME Group
1. Trend Overview and Price Structure
Bitcoin CME Futures are trading at $115,090, up +3.69% for the week.
After nearly six months of consolidation between $100,000–$115,000, the current setup indicates an ascending triangle formation nearing completion — signaling a potential major breakout toward the end of Q4 2025.
The medium-to-long-term trend remains firmly bullish, supported by a strong accumulation base following the uptrend from the $38,000 low (June 2023).
Technical upside targets after a confirmed breakout: $127,300 → $141,800 → $156,700.
2. Key Technical Price Levels
Resistance: 127,300 – 141,800 – 156,700
Support: 113,500 – 105,000 – 95,800
3. Detailed Technical Analysis
(1) Short-Term Trend
The third bull-flag pattern since 2023 is developing. Bitcoin has closed above its 20-week EMA for 11 consecutive weeks, confirming structural bullish momentum. Short-term bias: Uptrend continuation, targeting $127,300 over the next 3–5 weeks.
(2) Volume Analysis
CME trading volume rose 22% versus the 4-week average. Institutional positioning (COT Report) shows net long positions up by 8,500 contracts — the highest level since March 2024.
(3) Elliott Wave Structure
Wave 1: 38,000 → 77,500
Wave 2: Correction to 63,000
Wave 3: Expansion to 118,000
Wave 4: Sideways consolidation (100,000–115,000)
Wave 5: Target zone 140,000–156,000
(4) Momentum Confirmation
RS vs S&P 500 continues to strengthen. MVRV Z-score: +1.95 — still below overbought territory, allowing an additional 25–30% upside.
4. VNC– Strategic Commentary
Market Context
The Bitcoin market is underpinned by three structural drivers:
- Strong ETF Inflows: According to Bloomberg ETF Flow (Oct 24), spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.8 billion in net inflows over 10 days, the highest since their early 2024 launch.
- Monetary Easing by the Fed: The Federal Reserve has hinted at a 0.25% rate cut in December 2025, reigniting risk-on sentiment in digital assets.
- Tight Supply Dynamics: Post-2024 Halving, block issuance fell 8%, while whale cold storage activity hit a 14-month high (Glassnode, Oct 25).
- Key Market Developments (Oct 12–27, 2025): - CME Group (Oct 25): Bitcoin futures open interest hit $7.42B, up 9% WoW. Bloomberg (Oct 23): Fed expected to cut rates in December; crypto assets responded positively. CoinDesk (Oct 22): Exchange stablecoin ratios rose 10%, signaling incoming liquidity. Glassnode (Oct 20): Wallets holding over 10,000 BTC increased 3.4%, showing institutional accumulation. Reuters (Oct 19): Tech investment funds are reallocating 16% of new risk-on capital back into crypto.
VNC Intelligence Assessment (BI View)
Short-Term (2–3 weeks): Sideways range $112,000–$127,000, awaiting breakout confirmation.
Medium-Term (4–8 weeks): Upside target $141,800, driven by sustained ETF inflows.
Risks: Short-term USD rebound or ETF outflows if the Fed delays rate cuts.
5. Suggested Technical Strategies
Bullish Scenario (Preferred):
Entry: 113,500 – 115,000
Targets: TP1 127,300 | TP2 141,800 | TP3 156,700
Stop-Loss: 107,000
Probability: 80%
Rationale: Ascending triangle breakout supported by ETF inflows and institutional accumulation.
Bearish Counter-Scenario (Short-Term Profit Taking):
Entry: 156,000 – 157,000 (upon hitting projected wave 5 top)
Target: 141,800
Stop-Loss: 160,000
Probability: 20%
Rationale: Short-term profit-taking at Fibonacci extension resistance.
VNC Intelligence Summary: Bitcoin remains in a strong macro uptrend, supported by robust institutional participation and easing macroeconomic conditions.The ascending triangle pattern signals a potential mid-Q4 breakout, with ETF inflows acting as the key catalyst for price acceleration toward $140,000–$150,000.
Date: October 27, 2025 | Timeframe: Weekly | Exchange: CME Group
1. Trend Overview and Price Structure
Bitcoin CME Futures are trading at $115,090, up +3.69% for the week.
After nearly six months of consolidation between $100,000–$115,000, the current setup indicates an ascending triangle formation nearing completion — signaling a potential major breakout toward the end of Q4 2025.
The medium-to-long-term trend remains firmly bullish, supported by a strong accumulation base following the uptrend from the $38,000 low (June 2023).
Technical upside targets after a confirmed breakout: $127,300 → $141,800 → $156,700.
2. Key Technical Price Levels
Resistance: 127,300 – 141,800 – 156,700
Support: 113,500 – 105,000 – 95,800
3. Detailed Technical Analysis
(1) Short-Term Trend
The third bull-flag pattern since 2023 is developing. Bitcoin has closed above its 20-week EMA for 11 consecutive weeks, confirming structural bullish momentum. Short-term bias: Uptrend continuation, targeting $127,300 over the next 3–5 weeks.
(2) Volume Analysis
CME trading volume rose 22% versus the 4-week average. Institutional positioning (COT Report) shows net long positions up by 8,500 contracts — the highest level since March 2024.
(3) Elliott Wave Structure
Wave 1: 38,000 → 77,500
Wave 2: Correction to 63,000
Wave 3: Expansion to 118,000
Wave 4: Sideways consolidation (100,000–115,000)
Wave 5: Target zone 140,000–156,000
(4) Momentum Confirmation
RS vs S&P 500 continues to strengthen. MVRV Z-score: +1.95 — still below overbought territory, allowing an additional 25–30% upside.
4. VNC– Strategic Commentary
Market Context
The Bitcoin market is underpinned by three structural drivers:
- Strong ETF Inflows: According to Bloomberg ETF Flow (Oct 24), spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.8 billion in net inflows over 10 days, the highest since their early 2024 launch.
- Monetary Easing by the Fed: The Federal Reserve has hinted at a 0.25% rate cut in December 2025, reigniting risk-on sentiment in digital assets.
- Tight Supply Dynamics: Post-2024 Halving, block issuance fell 8%, while whale cold storage activity hit a 14-month high (Glassnode, Oct 25).
- Key Market Developments (Oct 12–27, 2025): - CME Group (Oct 25): Bitcoin futures open interest hit $7.42B, up 9% WoW. Bloomberg (Oct 23): Fed expected to cut rates in December; crypto assets responded positively. CoinDesk (Oct 22): Exchange stablecoin ratios rose 10%, signaling incoming liquidity. Glassnode (Oct 20): Wallets holding over 10,000 BTC increased 3.4%, showing institutional accumulation. Reuters (Oct 19): Tech investment funds are reallocating 16% of new risk-on capital back into crypto.
VNC Intelligence Assessment (BI View)
Short-Term (2–3 weeks): Sideways range $112,000–$127,000, awaiting breakout confirmation.
Medium-Term (4–8 weeks): Upside target $141,800, driven by sustained ETF inflows.
Risks: Short-term USD rebound or ETF outflows if the Fed delays rate cuts.
5. Suggested Technical Strategies
Bullish Scenario (Preferred):
Entry: 113,500 – 115,000
Targets: TP1 127,300 | TP2 141,800 | TP3 156,700
Stop-Loss: 107,000
Probability: 80%
Rationale: Ascending triangle breakout supported by ETF inflows and institutional accumulation.
Bearish Counter-Scenario (Short-Term Profit Taking):
Entry: 156,000 – 157,000 (upon hitting projected wave 5 top)
Target: 141,800
Stop-Loss: 160,000
Probability: 20%
Rationale: Short-term profit-taking at Fibonacci extension resistance.
VNC Intelligence Summary: Bitcoin remains in a strong macro uptrend, supported by robust institutional participation and easing macroeconomic conditions.The ascending triangle pattern signals a potential mid-Q4 breakout, with ETF inflows acting as the key catalyst for price acceleration toward $140,000–$150,000.
การนำเสนอที่เกี่ยวข้อง
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน
การนำเสนอที่เกี่ยวข้อง
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน