Price is reacting off the 5m Bull FVG 88.4–88.6k after the breakdown below 89,945.
This bounce is mitigation until we reclaim structure.
Key levels on my chart: 90,319 / 89,945 / 89,450 / 89,279.
⸻
Scenario ladder (with SL/TP)
A) Bull reclaim 89,279 (first breakdown-fail signal)
Trigger: 15m close > 89,279 + next 15m holds > 89,279
Entry: hold-close or first retest from above
SL: below the reclaim swing low (or conservative: below 88,600 FVG top)
TPs: 89,450 → 89,600 → 89,945 → 90,319
⸻
B) Bull reclaim 89,450 (stronger shift)
Trigger: 15m close > 89,450 + hold
Entry: retest of 89,450 from above (best)
SL: below 89,279 (or conservative: below 88,600)
TPs: 89,945 → 90,319 (stretch: higher 1h FVG zone if you track it)
⸻
C) Bear retest-fail at 89,279 (sell the bounce)
Trigger: price tags 89,279, then 15m closes back < 89,279 (rejection)
Entry: rejection close / next pullback
SL: above rejection high (or structural: above 89,450)
TPs: 88,600 / 88,400 / 88,000 (lower DBR)
⸻
D) Bear continuation (FVG fails)
Trigger: 15m close < 88,400 + continued acceptance below
Entry: retest of 88,400–88,600 from below (best)
SL: above 88,600
TPs: 88,000 / 87,600
⸻
Rule
No mid-box guessing: I act on close + hold, not wicks.
Reclaim 89,279 / 89,450 = bounce may evolve into reversal.
Fail there = continuation.
This bounce is mitigation until we reclaim structure.
Key levels on my chart: 90,319 / 89,945 / 89,450 / 89,279.
⸻
Scenario ladder (with SL/TP)
A) Bull reclaim 89,279 (first breakdown-fail signal)
Trigger: 15m close > 89,279 + next 15m holds > 89,279
Entry: hold-close or first retest from above
SL: below the reclaim swing low (or conservative: below 88,600 FVG top)
TPs: 89,450 → 89,600 → 89,945 → 90,319
⸻
B) Bull reclaim 89,450 (stronger shift)
Trigger: 15m close > 89,450 + hold
Entry: retest of 89,450 from above (best)
SL: below 89,279 (or conservative: below 88,600)
TPs: 89,945 → 90,319 (stretch: higher 1h FVG zone if you track it)
⸻
C) Bear retest-fail at 89,279 (sell the bounce)
Trigger: price tags 89,279, then 15m closes back < 89,279 (rejection)
Entry: rejection close / next pullback
SL: above rejection high (or structural: above 89,450)
TPs: 88,600 / 88,400 / 88,000 (lower DBR)
⸻
D) Bear continuation (FVG fails)
Trigger: 15m close < 88,400 + continued acceptance below
Entry: retest of 88,400–88,600 from below (best)
SL: above 88,600
TPs: 88,000 / 87,600
⸻
Rule
No mid-box guessing: I act on close + hold, not wicks.
Reclaim 89,279 / 89,450 = bounce may evolve into reversal.
Fail there = continuation.
บันทึก
Yesterday was a liquidation-style selloff: multiple oversized 5m candles and wicks, no clean pullbacks, and consecutive inefficiencies printed (stacked 5m/15m FVGs). Any “normal” retest logic got distorted by volatility spikes, so execution quality depended on waiting for acceptance/reclaim rather than trying to catch the first touch.
Today shifted into repair mode: price started building bases out of prior displacement (what looked like a 15m FVG effectively behaved like a higher-TF supply/base zone, then evolved into an actionable RBD/RDB structure). We got a push into the 5m FVG and a reaction, but the retest failed and price slipped back into the 1h RBD, invalidating the long continuation attempt. One partial TP was possible, but the runner got taken out on the reversal—classic “paid for information” trade: initial confirmation, then rejection/rotation back into the higher-TF base.
Key takeaway: in this volatility regime, treat FVGs as reaction areas, not guaranteed entries—confirmation (hold/reclaim + retest) matters more than precision. Execution priority was: reclaim/acceptance first, then entry; otherwise fade/short only after loss of base and failed reclaim.
บันทึก
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การนำเสนอที่เกี่ยวข้อง
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน