Is Bitcoin Nearing the End of Its Supercycle?
Recently, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has surged near its all-time high, sparking widespread debate over whether BTC still has upward momentum—or if it’s approaching a significant correction.
From my perspective, BTC has not yet completed its Supercycle wave ⑤, and we may still see one final impulse leg, potentially reaching the $135,000–$137,000 range before a major crash. Here are the key reasons supporting this outlook:
1. Macro Technical Wave Count
In my view, the current macro wave structure of Bitcoin's Supercycle is as follows:
Supercycle Wave ①: From BTC’s inception to December 4, 2013
Supercycle Wave ②: December 4, 2013 – August 18, 2015
Supercycle Wave ③: August 18, 2015 – November 10, 2021 (likely the extended wave)
Supercycle Wave ④: November 10, 2021 – November 21, 2022
Supercycle Wave ⑤: Currently in progress
According to my chart, we are currently within wave (5) (purple) of wave V (green), which itself is part of the broader Supercycle wave ⑤.
The structure reveals an impulsive wave (i) (red), followed by a corrective wave (ii). The emergence of wave (1) (blue) suggests the start of wave (iii), which is supported by a completed wave (2) correction that has tested a key support line—indicating readiness for an upward move into wave (3).
2. Wave Time Symmetry Suggests Potential for an Extended Wave (5)
The duration of wave (4) (purple) was significantly longer than that of wave (2), which often suggests that wave (5) may become the extended wave in the sequence.
If wave (5) does extend, a price target in the range of $135,000–$138,000 is a realistic projection.
Some may argue that wave V (green) could become too long if wave (5) extends—especially given that wave III (from September 12, 2023 to January 20, 2025) was already quite large.
However, my analysis shows that wave V is currently about 0.75 the length of wave III, which remains within a normal proportion for a non-extended wave.
3. Gann Fan Confluence Supports $137,000 Target
The target zone of $137,000 for the final top of Supercycle wave ⑤ is also supported by the intersection of Gann fan lines, drawn from:
The beginning of wave I of Supercycle wave ⑤ (starting November 22, 2022), and
The beginning of wave V of Supercycle wave ⑤ (April 9, 2025).
These fan lines historically align with major resistance zones near all-time highs in the past, reinforcing this level as a likely top.
4. Alternative Scenario: Complex Correction Still Unfolding
An alternative scenario is that the recent impulse structure is actually part of a complex WXYXZ correction—meaning wave (5) (purple) has not yet begun.
In this case, waves (1) and (2) (blue) may be components of the WXY correction, and not a new impulse.
To invalidate this bearish scenario, BTC must remain above $100,000.
If the price drops below this level, the correction would likely be deeper than 0.8 of wave (i) (red), which would contradict the impulse wave structure.
Recently, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has surged near its all-time high, sparking widespread debate over whether BTC still has upward momentum—or if it’s approaching a significant correction.
From my perspective, BTC has not yet completed its Supercycle wave ⑤, and we may still see one final impulse leg, potentially reaching the $135,000–$137,000 range before a major crash. Here are the key reasons supporting this outlook:
1. Macro Technical Wave Count
In my view, the current macro wave structure of Bitcoin's Supercycle is as follows:
Supercycle Wave ①: From BTC’s inception to December 4, 2013
Supercycle Wave ②: December 4, 2013 – August 18, 2015
Supercycle Wave ③: August 18, 2015 – November 10, 2021 (likely the extended wave)
Supercycle Wave ④: November 10, 2021 – November 21, 2022
Supercycle Wave ⑤: Currently in progress
According to my chart, we are currently within wave (5) (purple) of wave V (green), which itself is part of the broader Supercycle wave ⑤.
The structure reveals an impulsive wave (i) (red), followed by a corrective wave (ii). The emergence of wave (1) (blue) suggests the start of wave (iii), which is supported by a completed wave (2) correction that has tested a key support line—indicating readiness for an upward move into wave (3).
2. Wave Time Symmetry Suggests Potential for an Extended Wave (5)
The duration of wave (4) (purple) was significantly longer than that of wave (2), which often suggests that wave (5) may become the extended wave in the sequence.
If wave (5) does extend, a price target in the range of $135,000–$138,000 is a realistic projection.
Some may argue that wave V (green) could become too long if wave (5) extends—especially given that wave III (from September 12, 2023 to January 20, 2025) was already quite large.
However, my analysis shows that wave V is currently about 0.75 the length of wave III, which remains within a normal proportion for a non-extended wave.
3. Gann Fan Confluence Supports $137,000 Target
The target zone of $137,000 for the final top of Supercycle wave ⑤ is also supported by the intersection of Gann fan lines, drawn from:
The beginning of wave I of Supercycle wave ⑤ (starting November 22, 2022), and
The beginning of wave V of Supercycle wave ⑤ (April 9, 2025).
These fan lines historically align with major resistance zones near all-time highs in the past, reinforcing this level as a likely top.
4. Alternative Scenario: Complex Correction Still Unfolding
An alternative scenario is that the recent impulse structure is actually part of a complex WXYXZ correction—meaning wave (5) (purple) has not yet begun.
In this case, waves (1) and (2) (blue) may be components of the WXY correction, and not a new impulse.
To invalidate this bearish scenario, BTC must remain above $100,000.
If the price drops below this level, the correction would likely be deeper than 0.8 of wave (i) (red), which would contradict the impulse wave structure.
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การนำเสนอที่เกี่ยวข้อง
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน