Three months ago I shared my macro view on Bitcoin. Looking at the chart today, I'm still not changing that view. Not because every monthly candle followed my projection perfectly, but because the bigger market structure still hasn't given me a reason to.
Back then, many people believed the cycle low was already behind us and that Bitcoin would simply continue moving higher. Today the narrative has completely flipped. Optimism has turned into fear. Now many people are waiting for one final bottom. Market sentiment has changed dramatically. The macro structure hasn't changed nearly as much.
One thing I find especially interesting is how closely the market has followed the same template over the last three months. The overall rhythm of expansion, correction and stabilization has remained surprisingly consistent. No template lasts forever, and this one can fail at any moment. But so far, it's surprisingly difficult to ignore how closely price has continued to follow it.
Another thing that caught my attention is market psychology. A September–October bottom has now become one of the most popular expectations across the market. Whenever too many people start expecting the exact same outcome, I become even more cautious. Markets rarely reward the obvious. That doesn't mean the crowd is wrong. It simply means I don't want to become part of the crowd without confirmation.
I'm also still watching two signals that haven't changed: monthly volume still hasn't produced the type of capitulation spike that has historically appeared near major cycle lows. At the same time, RSI continues moving toward long-term support. Neither signal confirms that the ultimate bottom is already behind us.
For now, price action, market structure, and these higher-timeframe signals keep me focused on the same two scenarios:
Scenario 1 (My base case)
One or even two more liquidity sweeps into lower support areas before the next major expansion begins.
Scenario 2
The cycle low is already behind us. BTC continues holding the broader support area, even if short-term liquidity gets swept below $60k from time to time.
If the current template continues to develop, the next logical area I'll be watching is around $70k–75k before the market decides whether another reset is still needed.
I won't change my macro view until the market gives me a reason to.
The projected path on this chart is only my visual expectation. Markets break patterns all the time. That's exactly why risk management will always matter more than being "right."
This is my personal view of the current market structure. Not financial advice.
Back then, many people believed the cycle low was already behind us and that Bitcoin would simply continue moving higher. Today the narrative has completely flipped. Optimism has turned into fear. Now many people are waiting for one final bottom. Market sentiment has changed dramatically. The macro structure hasn't changed nearly as much.
One thing I find especially interesting is how closely the market has followed the same template over the last three months. The overall rhythm of expansion, correction and stabilization has remained surprisingly consistent. No template lasts forever, and this one can fail at any moment. But so far, it's surprisingly difficult to ignore how closely price has continued to follow it.
Another thing that caught my attention is market psychology. A September–October bottom has now become one of the most popular expectations across the market. Whenever too many people start expecting the exact same outcome, I become even more cautious. Markets rarely reward the obvious. That doesn't mean the crowd is wrong. It simply means I don't want to become part of the crowd without confirmation.
I'm also still watching two signals that haven't changed: monthly volume still hasn't produced the type of capitulation spike that has historically appeared near major cycle lows. At the same time, RSI continues moving toward long-term support. Neither signal confirms that the ultimate bottom is already behind us.
For now, price action, market structure, and these higher-timeframe signals keep me focused on the same two scenarios:
Scenario 1 (My base case)
One or even two more liquidity sweeps into lower support areas before the next major expansion begins.
Scenario 2
The cycle low is already behind us. BTC continues holding the broader support area, even if short-term liquidity gets swept below $60k from time to time.
If the current template continues to develop, the next logical area I'll be watching is around $70k–75k before the market decides whether another reset is still needed.
I won't change my macro view until the market gives me a reason to.
The projected path on this chart is only my visual expectation. Markets break patterns all the time. That's exactly why risk management will always matter more than being "right."
This is my personal view of the current market structure. Not financial advice.
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน