Note / Preface:
This publication focuses on higher-timeframe (weekly) structure and macro justification. Additional Fibonacci levels, minor supply/demand zones, and other references mentioned in the text but not shown on the chart exist on lower timeframes and are intentionally omitted to preserve clarity. The chart displays only the most pertinent macro levels used to frame the higher-timeframe thesis and potential decision areas.
Thesis:
This thesis is based on higher-timeframe structure, trend, and auction behavior using the weekly chart.
Following the ATH, BTC rejected the golden pocket (≈107–110k), overlapping a major supply zone, and formed a weak corrective channel that resolves as a bear flag. The retracement failed near the 0.5 level, with repeated rejection from supply at 90–93k. No weekly candles accepted above the channel midpoint, suggesting persistent seller control rather than accumulation.
Momentum confirms the structure. Weekly RSI remains in a bear regime (below the EMA and the 50 midpoint), and rallies continue to behave as corrective rather than impulsive.
The measured move from the bear flag pole (thick vertical yellow lines) projects toward ~62k, aligning with a large multi-cycle supply/demand zone (≈53–63k), the rising 200-week SMA (yellow dotted line), and the 0.382 retracement of the Nov 2022 low to ATH (~57.7k). Notably, the anchored VWAP (brown/orange line) from the 2022 low currently sits near the top of this zone (~63k), making it a likely area for long-duration participant defense and a potential reaction.
A bullish Cypher harmonic is tracking toward completion near this region. Harmonic completion is expected to produce a reaction, not necessarily a reversal—either a short-covering bounce followed by a back-test, or a deeper liquidity sweep within the zone. MACD histogram divergence supports the potential for a counter-trend reaction but does not override bearish structure without acceptance and regime change.
From a trend-following perspective, moving-average behavior is consistent with a late Stage 3 / Stage 4 environment under Stan Weinstein’s framework, reinforcing a bearish-until-invalidated bias.
The bearish thesis remains intact unless BTC reclaims 90–93k with acceptance and exits the RSI bear regime. The 53–63k zone is viewed as a high-probability reaction and reassessment area, not a hard target.
This publication focuses on higher-timeframe (weekly) structure and macro justification. Additional Fibonacci levels, minor supply/demand zones, and other references mentioned in the text but not shown on the chart exist on lower timeframes and are intentionally omitted to preserve clarity. The chart displays only the most pertinent macro levels used to frame the higher-timeframe thesis and potential decision areas.
Thesis:
This thesis is based on higher-timeframe structure, trend, and auction behavior using the weekly chart.
Following the ATH, BTC rejected the golden pocket (≈107–110k), overlapping a major supply zone, and formed a weak corrective channel that resolves as a bear flag. The retracement failed near the 0.5 level, with repeated rejection from supply at 90–93k. No weekly candles accepted above the channel midpoint, suggesting persistent seller control rather than accumulation.
Momentum confirms the structure. Weekly RSI remains in a bear regime (below the EMA and the 50 midpoint), and rallies continue to behave as corrective rather than impulsive.
The measured move from the bear flag pole (thick vertical yellow lines) projects toward ~62k, aligning with a large multi-cycle supply/demand zone (≈53–63k), the rising 200-week SMA (yellow dotted line), and the 0.382 retracement of the Nov 2022 low to ATH (~57.7k). Notably, the anchored VWAP (brown/orange line) from the 2022 low currently sits near the top of this zone (~63k), making it a likely area for long-duration participant defense and a potential reaction.
A bullish Cypher harmonic is tracking toward completion near this region. Harmonic completion is expected to produce a reaction, not necessarily a reversal—either a short-covering bounce followed by a back-test, or a deeper liquidity sweep within the zone. MACD histogram divergence supports the potential for a counter-trend reaction but does not override bearish structure without acceptance and regime change.
From a trend-following perspective, moving-average behavior is consistent with a late Stage 3 / Stage 4 environment under Stan Weinstein’s framework, reinforcing a bearish-until-invalidated bias.
The bearish thesis remains intact unless BTC reclaims 90–93k with acceptance and exits the RSI bear regime. The 53–63k zone is viewed as a high-probability reaction and reassessment area, not a hard target.
การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่
Update – Weak SnD Zone Failure / ContinuationSince publishing this thesis, BTC has validated the “weak” nature of the prior SnD zone that was sitting in a volume valley. Price wasted no time wicking into and below the zone, with candle bodies repeatedly crossing what should have been support. The zone failed to produce a clean rotational response, and resistance within the area was only respected via wicks rather than candle-body acceptance. This is consistent with a low-participation level acting as a transit area rather than meaningful demand.
Following the rejection, BTC aggressively moved into the next lower SnD zone, which aligns with the top of the 2024 downward accumulation channel. This remains above my primary macro target zone (≈53–63k), but the speed and character of the move reinforces the broader bearish continuation framework: weak levels fail quickly, and price seeks the next area with stronger structural memory and participant interest.
This new zone is now the key area to monitor for either a reaction + back-test sequence (bearish continuation), or a structural reclaim that would begin to challenge the thesis.
บันทึก
I did not show the SnD zone mentioned in the update. It is in an older BTC chart I published.บันทึก
Update – Thesis Target Tagged (62.1k) / Decision Zone in PlayBTC has now reached the primary confluence area of this thesis, dropping to ~62.1k. Price moved just below the anchored VWAP from the 2022 low and found support inside the 53–63k multi-cycle SnD zone, occurring right around the projected Cypher harmonic completion.
So far, this is a clean validation of the macro roadmap: the bear flag measured move has effectively resolved into the expected decision region where long-duration participant defense, HTF structure memory, and harmonic completion converge.
At this stage, I’m not treating this as an automatic reversal zone. The key question now is whether this area produces a true harmonic reaction and structural stabilization (support formation), or whether price continues to seek deeper liquidity within the zone and potentially toward the 0.382 retracement / 200-week SMA region (~57–58k).
This is the part of the thesis where reaction vs acceptance matters most. I’m watching for a sharp counter-trend response followed by a back-test, and whether BTC can reclaim the AVWAP and hold above it with acceptance.
Disclaimer: I may now consider opening a position. I think I would rather do that with ETH though.
บันทึก
BTC produced a corrective bounce to ~72k but has since rolled over after roughly two weeks of apparent support in the 65k region, primarily in the form of downside wicks rejecting sub-65k prices. Price then rotated back into the 67.4k area, where weekly candle bodies have actively battled.Last week showed only weak support on below-average volume, and this week price is falling decisively on the daily timeframe, suggesting the bounce was corrective rather than impulsive.
Regarding the 67.4k battleground, this is not an arbitrary region. During the 2024 accumulation range, this level repeatedly acted as a rejection area, although some short-term breakouts occurred on relatively low volume and lacked follow-through.
More importantly, BTC achieved a high-volume breakout above this level in October 2024, followed by expanding volume and a successful November back-test that preceded the impulsive move toward 90k. That sequence established 67.4k as a meaningful prior acceptance and launch area.
Given that history, the current two-week candle body battle around 67.4k makes structural sense. Markets often revisit high-volume breakout levels to determine whether they will continue to act as support or transition back into supply.
At present, BTC is showing acceptance below 67.4k and is rotating back toward the 53k–63k SnD zone in search of liquidity. I expect another meaningful battle to emerge after this liquidity sweep, with price likely to revisit and retest the 67.4k region from below.
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ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน