Despite such a large sell-off event, has the outlook on BTC actually changed? Structurally BTC remains very much rangebound with two clearly definable halves of the range. That is until Fridays move off the back of a Tariff Tweet from President Trump causing a liquidation event similar to that of April earlier this year and the Covid crash of 2020.
Bitcoin was less effected when compared to altcoins as is usually the case, some majors dropping as much as 80% in a single 1h candle! An entire bear market in an afternoon. Bitcoin on most exchanges fell roughly 20% on the news and eventually found support at range lows ($100,000), a significant amount of this drop got bought up and so BTC finds itself hovering around range midpoint.
To me this is a no trade zone initially, there is no clear directional bias that is actionable at this time but I am looking for clues as to where price may be going next:
- Should BTC stay above midpoint the next clear resistance level is 0.75 ($117,605). On the lower time frames the trend is bearish, 0.75 would be a good place for the bears to defend.
- A loss of the midpoint would open the door to backfilling the wick, this could get ugly as on the higher time frames a new lower low and price acceptance lower would signal a bearish shift in structure. Calls for "the top is in" will get much louder and so will the 4 year cycle theory comparisons.
- A V-shaped recovery and move straight to the highs would be max pain after such a brutal move down. Although IMO it's the least likely I would not rule it out.
Bitcoin was less effected when compared to altcoins as is usually the case, some majors dropping as much as 80% in a single 1h candle! An entire bear market in an afternoon. Bitcoin on most exchanges fell roughly 20% on the news and eventually found support at range lows ($100,000), a significant amount of this drop got bought up and so BTC finds itself hovering around range midpoint.
To me this is a no trade zone initially, there is no clear directional bias that is actionable at this time but I am looking for clues as to where price may be going next:
- Should BTC stay above midpoint the next clear resistance level is 0.75 ($117,605). On the lower time frames the trend is bearish, 0.75 would be a good place for the bears to defend.
- A loss of the midpoint would open the door to backfilling the wick, this could get ugly as on the higher time frames a new lower low and price acceptance lower would signal a bearish shift in structure. Calls for "the top is in" will get much louder and so will the 4 year cycle theory comparisons.
- A V-shaped recovery and move straight to the highs would be max pain after such a brutal move down. Although IMO it's the least likely I would not rule it out.
บันทึก
A full week of backfilling the wick since losing the midpoint. Ultimately a retest of the range low now looks to be on the cards and what happens there will decide if BTC is still in an uptrend or it has come to an end.
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BTC retesting the Grey Zone as resistance บันทึก
FOMC day, BTC sitting on the top pf the midpoint but no clear bias going into the news event.บันทึก
BTC at range lows, double wick below but the lack of bullish reaction at this level is worrying. The longer price stays at this level the more likely it is to breakdown IMO. Very important next few days/ weekly close. บันทึก
BTC remains at range low after 0.25 ($106,000) rejection. Very little strength in the market currently.
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คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน