BTC closed November sweeping and reclaiming the weekly 100 EMA, and although the daily chart printed a strong reversal candle, it is still too early to call a bottom.
The broader bearish structure on both the weekly and daily remains intact, and volume aligns with the downtrend. On the daily, we also have the 100 and 200 EMA bearish crossover, which confirms a strong HTF bearish trend.
In bearish markets, it is uncommon to leave an FVG unfilled unless the trend is very strong. Even though November closed above the 100 EMA, it was still a heavy bearish close that broke the monthly bullish trendline.
If we hit 100K, it would imply a 20K rally after a 40K drop with no real consolidation or accumulation. That would be wild. It is possible but very unlikely. This currently looks like the unwind of a multi-day distribution that likely started in July. The market needs a proper multi-day accumulation.
We also need to consider that we are fading the high return season, which adds more weight to the distribution thesis.
My expectation for December is range-bound price action and a close near the yearly open.
On low timeframes, there is a clean short opportunity at the bearish order block around 95K to 97K, sitting above yearly-open liquidity.
If price returns to the lows, we also have a potential monthly double-bottom setup targeting the yearly open.
There is a daily bullish MSB waiting at 97K. If price reaches it, we may start holding above the yearly open and squeeze toward the daily 200 EMA. From there, the monthly and weekly trendline could act as resistance and push price back to the lows, which is a common retest pattern after a strong trendline break.
The broader bearish structure on both the weekly and daily remains intact, and volume aligns with the downtrend. On the daily, we also have the 100 and 200 EMA bearish crossover, which confirms a strong HTF bearish trend.
In bearish markets, it is uncommon to leave an FVG unfilled unless the trend is very strong. Even though November closed above the 100 EMA, it was still a heavy bearish close that broke the monthly bullish trendline.
If we hit 100K, it would imply a 20K rally after a 40K drop with no real consolidation or accumulation. That would be wild. It is possible but very unlikely. This currently looks like the unwind of a multi-day distribution that likely started in July. The market needs a proper multi-day accumulation.
We also need to consider that we are fading the high return season, which adds more weight to the distribution thesis.
My expectation for December is range-bound price action and a close near the yearly open.
On low timeframes, there is a clean short opportunity at the bearish order block around 95K to 97K, sitting above yearly-open liquidity.
If price returns to the lows, we also have a potential monthly double-bottom setup targeting the yearly open.
There is a daily bullish MSB waiting at 97K. If price reaches it, we may start holding above the yearly open and squeeze toward the daily 200 EMA. From there, the monthly and weekly trendline could act as resistance and push price back to the lows, which is a common retest pattern after a strong trendline break.
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คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน