Bitcoin / TetherUS
Long

BTC 1H Analysis - Key Triggers Ahead | Day 48

227
❄️ Welcome to the cryptos winter , I hope you’ve started your day well.

⏰ We’re analyzing BTCUSDT on the 1-Hour timeframe .

👀 On the 1-hour timeframe, Bitcoin previously formed a consolidation box at a higher range. After breaking the bottom of that box, it moved down to its support area around $108,800. Since the start of the weekend, price has been ranging in this zone, forming a new consolidation structure. The bottom of this range overlaps with the Tether Dominance resistance, creating a key confluence level. Candle size has been shrinking, signaling an incoming decision point for the next move.

A break above the range high at $109,755 could trigger upward momentum. An important detail here is the fakeout at the top of the range, where buyers failed to push higher and sellers drove price back down.

🧮 The RSI oscillator shows two key levels:

52: Slightly above the 50 baseline, acting as momentum resistance.
30: At the oversold boundary, where a breakdown could start a stronger move.
The previous fakeout at the range high was aligned with a rejection from the RSI resistance around 52, which reinforces the validity of this level. A momentum breakout through this zone could support a long setup.

🕯 Candle size and volume have significantly decreased due to consolidation and the weekend lull. With increased volume at the start of the new week, we can expect stronger candles. It doesn't matter which direction initiates the move — the breakout from this range will likely occur through a whale candle that clears the orderbook in one direction.

USDT.D 1H Analysis - Key Triggers Ahead
💵 From earlier Tether Dominance analysis, a break below 4.46% could inject bullish volume into the market and allow Bitcoin to break its range high and begin a new upward leg. However, a break above 4.72% on Tether Dominance could trigger deeper correction in Bitcoin, pushing it toward lower supports.

🧠 Two main scenarios for Bitcoin positions are currently in play:

1️⃣ Long Setup :
Wait for multiple rejections to complete and for Tether Dominance to lose the 4.46% support. A small green indecision candle before the breakout on Bitcoin would offer a clean entry with a tight stop. As volume increases and confirmation appears, the long position can be held to a suitable reward target. This setup can be taken in inverse correlation to Tether Dominance, using bearish candles there as confirmation.

2️⃣ Short Setup :
If Tether Dominance breaks above resistance and Bitcoin loses its current range support — combined with RSI dropping below 30 and price stabilizing under current support, ideally with a red indecision candle — a short setup becomes valid. However, note that Bitcoin demand is currently rising, and upward movement could occur at any moment. Personally, you prefer not to take short positions here.

❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
บันทึก
Hi , Our long scenario played out, and Bitcoin broke through its key resistance at 109,755 and is now moving toward the 115,61 resistance level.
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