Summary:
BTC has bounced approximately 13% from the July low.
Near the July 1 low, I discussed the possibility of a meaningful rebound and shifted my short-term focus toward longs.
My broader view has remained consistent:
The mid-term and long-term structure still favors the sell side.
However, price had moved into an area where a counter-trend rebound was reasonable.
I currently hold a swing long from around 59.8K and a short-term long from approximately 62.6K, entered near the blue support zone shared on July 17.
The current question is no longer whether a rebound can happen.
The rebound has already happened.
The question is how to manage long exposure while preparing for the next possible reversal.
Scenario 1 — Running flat completion:
The light-blue scenario represents a possible running-flat structure.
If this structure is completing now, the rebound may face meaningful resistance around 66K.
In that case, the current move can mark the end of the counter-trend advance before the broader downside structure resumes.
For existing longs, this scenario supports partial profit-taking and tighter risk management.
It can also justify a light hedge short or a small short attempt with close invalidation.
Scenario 2 — Upside continuation:
The green running-triangle scenario and the orange running-flat scenario suggest that the current C wave may still be developing.
If BTC breaks above 67K, the probability of continued upside increases.
In that case, the next task is not to keep shorting blindly, but to identify the next resistance area where the extended C wave may complete.
Position management:
This is not a full-conviction short zone.
It is also not a zone where existing longs should be held without any profit management.
My current approach is:
Hold selected long exposure.
Take partial profits as price enters resistance.
Consider a light hedge short near 66K.
Keep short invalidation tight.
Reassess the upside path if 67K breaks.
Risk management:
I was able to position near previous turning points—not because I had complete certainty, but because I prepared for the opposite scenario and kept position size within an acceptable risk range.
A correct directional view does not guarantee a profitable trade.
A wrong view does not automatically produce a loss.
Execution, position size, invalidation, and profit management matter more than certainty.
Conclusion:
BTC has completed a strong 13% rebound from the July low.
That does not mean the market must continue rising without interruption.
The current area is better viewed as a risk-management zone:
manage existing longs, consider light short exposure near resistance, and remain prepared for continued upside above 67K.
This is a market structure analysis and personal trading journal, not financial advice.
BTC has bounced approximately 13% from the July low.
Near the July 1 low, I discussed the possibility of a meaningful rebound and shifted my short-term focus toward longs.
My broader view has remained consistent:
The mid-term and long-term structure still favors the sell side.
However, price had moved into an area where a counter-trend rebound was reasonable.
I currently hold a swing long from around 59.8K and a short-term long from approximately 62.6K, entered near the blue support zone shared on July 17.
The current question is no longer whether a rebound can happen.
The rebound has already happened.
The question is how to manage long exposure while preparing for the next possible reversal.
Scenario 1 — Running flat completion:
The light-blue scenario represents a possible running-flat structure.
If this structure is completing now, the rebound may face meaningful resistance around 66K.
In that case, the current move can mark the end of the counter-trend advance before the broader downside structure resumes.
For existing longs, this scenario supports partial profit-taking and tighter risk management.
It can also justify a light hedge short or a small short attempt with close invalidation.
Scenario 2 — Upside continuation:
The green running-triangle scenario and the orange running-flat scenario suggest that the current C wave may still be developing.
If BTC breaks above 67K, the probability of continued upside increases.
In that case, the next task is not to keep shorting blindly, but to identify the next resistance area where the extended C wave may complete.
Position management:
This is not a full-conviction short zone.
It is also not a zone where existing longs should be held without any profit management.
My current approach is:
Hold selected long exposure.
Take partial profits as price enters resistance.
Consider a light hedge short near 66K.
Keep short invalidation tight.
Reassess the upside path if 67K breaks.
Risk management:
I was able to position near previous turning points—not because I had complete certainty, but because I prepared for the opposite scenario and kept position size within an acceptable risk range.
A correct directional view does not guarantee a profitable trade.
A wrong view does not automatically produce a loss.
Execution, position size, invalidation, and profit management matter more than certainty.
Conclusion:
BTC has completed a strong 13% rebound from the July low.
That does not mean the market must continue rising without interruption.
The current area is better viewed as a risk-management zone:
manage existing longs, consider light short exposure near resistance, and remain prepared for continued upside above 67K.
This is a market structure analysis and personal trading journal, not financial advice.
Scenarios, not predictions.
Plan both sides. Define the risk. Execute the setup.
📊 Elliott Wave • Market Structure • Risk Management
✍️ Free BTC analysis:
linktr.ee/TraderGemini
Plan both sides. Define the risk. Execute the setup.
📊 Elliott Wave • Market Structure • Risk Management
✍️ Free BTC analysis:
linktr.ee/TraderGemini
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน
Scenarios, not predictions.
Plan both sides. Define the risk. Execute the setup.
📊 Elliott Wave • Market Structure • Risk Management
✍️ Free BTC analysis:
linktr.ee/TraderGemini
Plan both sides. Define the risk. Execute the setup.
📊 Elliott Wave • Market Structure • Risk Management
✍️ Free BTC analysis:
linktr.ee/TraderGemini
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน